Exposure is set by the tariff line, not the sector: 666 US lines carry the Section 338 duty of 50 per cent, and 68 are excluded from importation since 29 September 2026.
Archive edition. Researched 25 September 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
Both are Edition 1.0, with their printed notices intact.
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General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice, not tailored to any reader, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves; to the fullest extent permitted by law Strature accepts no liability (otherwise capped at the fee paid). Full terms in the full brief.
PDF · 4 pages · 121 KB · Edition 1.0
This is general research on public information, published for general circulation to purchasers. It is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, is not tailored to any reader, and does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security or loan; options to consider are illustrations, not instructions. Every probability and forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, and may prove wrong; the brief is provided "as is", without warranty. To the fullest extent permitted by law Strature and its principal accept no liability of any kind; where a court will not allow that, liability is limited to the fee paid, and indirect or consequential loss is excluded. Strature and its principal hold no position in, and receive no payment from, any company or fund named in this brief. AI-assisted research, reviewed by AI, not by a lawyer; internal use only; Ontario law. Full terms in the full brief.
Each exhibit is drawn from the edition’s own data, with its source and credit as printed. Its data can be downloaded as CSV.
15 Jul 2026 to 30 Nov 2026
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
No forecast is registered with this edition.
USAFacts updated its series: duty collected on US imports from Canada was 2.8% of their value in July 2026 (research: 2.9% in June 2026), against 6.5% for all origins (research: 6.8%). January to July 2026 averaged 3.1%.
USAFacts, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
HTSUS Revision 20 (2026) became the current schedule. The 26 headings naming Canada are unchanged in description and rate, and U.S. note 51 still lists 101, 52 and 513 lines (666). Subdivision (c) still applies the exemption to duties under 9903.03.13.
USITC HTS release list and chapter 99, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
CBP issued guidance on the exclusion: entries containing covered products are rejected from 12:01 a.m. on 29 September; exclusion bars foreign-trade-zone and bonded-warehouse admission and in-bond transport; goods imported earlier may be entered at the 50% duty.
CBP CSMS #70050970, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
The exclusion from importation took effect. Date passed. Published estimates differ by a factor of about twenty and may not measure the same thing: Blakes puts the excluded goods at nearly US$1 billion; CNBC, citing the American Action Forum, reports around $19.9 billion. The conflict is printed, not resolved.
Blakes, timeline, 29 Sep 2026; CNBC, 29 Sep 2026; both retrieved 30 Sep 2026
The Prime Minister said Canada has no plans to apply new trade pressure on the United States and stands ready to negotiate.
The Canadian Press via CP24, 29 Sep 2026, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
No presidential document naming Canada was found in the Federal Register after the procurement memorandum of 21 Sep 2026, searched to 30 Sep 2026.
Federal Register API, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
The US Census Bureau schedules the FT900 for August 2026 on 6 Oct 2026 (research: about 8 Oct) and for September 2026 on 4 Nov 2026. Finance Canada lists the Fiscal Monitor for August 2026 no later than 30 Oct 2026 and for September 2026 no later than 27 Nov 2026.
census.gov release schedule; canada.ca Fiscal Monitor page; both retrieved 30 Sep 2026
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“Exposure is set by the tariff line, not the sector: 666 US lines carry the Section 338 duty of 50 per cent, and 68 are excluded from importation since 29 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Three headings have closed: 9903.05.85, 9903.45.27 and 9903.53.01. The other 23 are in force.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Heading 9903.03.14 holds 513 lines. Its four largest groups are wood (64 lines), furniture (56), electrical goods (39) and paper (31): 190 of 513, or 37%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“CUSMA origin removes the broad 35% measure and the 10% measures; the schedule gives it no effect on the Section 338 duty or on Section 232.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The value of the trade on the Section 338 lists is NOT DISCLOSED here. What would close it: a licensed trade series read against the 666 lines.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The four are cases, not a sample, and a firm can move between conditions on a single proclamation.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Proclamation 11063, titled with respect to motor vehicles, excludes one tariff line from importation: motorcycles over 800 cc. It reaches no cars, trucks or parts.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The published position of both documents is that the exemption reaches the dairy list only.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The duty collected on US imports from Canada was 2.8% of their value in July 2026, against 6.5% for imports from all origins.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“For lines on 9903.03.13 and 9903.03.14, the measures the United States names are a federal quota allocation and a federal Order in Council (SOR/2025-118), both published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“It reaches a Canadian firm whose US revenue is a federal contract rather than a shipment, and it is not a customs matter.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The reading would change with a new proclamation amending the exclusion annexes or the duty lists, or a revision of U.S. note 51; none was found to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
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