24 questions answered in 2 published briefs · Updated 30 Sep 2026
“Exposure is set by the tariff line, not the sector: 666 US lines carry the Section 338 duty of 50 per cent, and 68 are excluded from importation since 29 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Three headings have closed: 9903.05.85, 9903.45.27 and 9903.53.01. The other 23 are in force.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Heading 9903.03.14 holds 513 lines. Its four largest groups are wood (64 lines), furniture (56), electrical goods (39) and paper (31): 190 of 513, or 37%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“CUSMA origin removes the broad 35% measure and the 10% measures; the schedule gives it no effect on the Section 338 duty or on Section 232.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The value of the trade on the Section 338 lists is NOT DISCLOSED here. What would close it: a licensed trade series read against the 666 lines.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The four are cases, not a sample, and a firm can move between conditions on a single proclamation.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Proclamation 11063, titled with respect to motor vehicles, excludes one tariff line from importation: motorcycles over 800 cc. It reaches no cars, trucks or parts.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The published position of both documents is that the exemption reaches the dairy list only.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The duty collected on US imports from Canada was 2.8% of their value in July 2026, against 6.5% for imports from all origins.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“For lines on 9903.03.13 and 9903.03.14, the measures the United States names are a federal quota allocation and a federal Order in Council (SOR/2025-118), both published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“It reaches a Canadian firm whose US revenue is a federal contract rather than a shipment, and it is not a customs matter.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The reading would change with a new proclamation amending the exclusion annexes or the duty lists, or a revision of U.S. note 51; none was found to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Not quickly: a named fund taking a new equity stake in a C$1bn-plus Canadian project by 31 October 2027 is 16% likely with a government term, 27% without: 43% together, each our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0151 16%, open · F-0152 27%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada Affected United Arab Emirates
“Few projects qualify: 9 of 50 undecided large projects fit an infrastructure mandate, 3 with a firm term.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Large projects are plentiful but large infrastructure projects are not: 9 of 50 undecided fit an infrastructure mandate, and 3 of those have a firm term.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Governments hold the near-term deal flow: nothing in the airport sale moves until its concession terms are published, and those terms, not bidder appetite, set the timetable.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Canadian returns trail US ones by 5 to 6 points in mining and manufacturing; refining runs the other way, and infrastructure itself cannot be compared.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Building costs already run ahead of general prices, but no delay notice yet names labour or grid connection, so capacity will price the next stage rather than block this one.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Funds already put most of their Canadian money into operating assets; their own record on to-be-built projects is too thin to say that a government term brings them in.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Projects with a term written for them go ahead more often, though not reliably; capacity offered in general sits mostly unused.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The funds' rules we could read leave room for a larger Canadian share, so the limit is more likely the deals on offer than their mandates.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“On 4 of the 7 projects with a cost on record, the cost rose 22% to 36% after the decision; on the other 3 it held.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“No anchor deal has happened yet, and the one placement since the pledges came before it; whether the funds are waiting on each other cannot yet be told.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Five futures to 31 October 2027 cover every outcome; if several commitments qualify, any carrying a term decides. Each number is our estimate, scored when it resolves (Exhibit 18).”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0151 16%, open · F-0152 27%, open · F-0153 16%, open · F-0154 14%, open · F-0155 27%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Middle East · North America
Edition 1.0 · 30 Sep 2026 · Archive edition
Edition 1.0 · 28 Sep 2026
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0151 | a build with a government term | Our estimate 16% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
| F-0152 | a build on private contracts only | Our estimate 27% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
| F-0153 | airport terms published, no build | Our estimate 16% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
| F-0154 | a fast-track listing only | Our estimate 14% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
| F-0155 | a standstill | Our estimate 27% | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves by 31 Oct 2027 | Status Open |
The full brief goes to organisations who accept the terms and whose order is approved; there is no charge while prices are not published.
Q 024 · Edition 1.0
Q 021 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.