Strature Briefs
One question per brief, answered with a probability we register and score. The summary sheet and the executive read are free.
Consulting and forecasts in the changing world order
Know what can reach your business, and how likely it is.
Strature advises organisations on geo-strategy and geo-business strategy, and measures their exposure to regulation, sanctions and policy where they actually operate.
Exhibit H-1 · Against even odds · Canada
A C$1bn-plus stake by 31 October 2027: 43%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
With a government term16%
Without one27%
Either way43%
Probability, percent; our estimate, scored when it resolves
SourceDecision Brief No. 021, Edition 1.1, 2 Oct 2026 (registered 28 Sep 2026).
Exhibit H-1 · Canada · strature.net
What Strature offers
Four ways in. The first three are free to read.
Strature GPS
The questions our briefs address, on the world map, with country pages, strait scenarios and the supply network.
Strature Exposure
What can reach one company, where and when. Four demo editions, read from public sources.
Strature Advisory
Work for one organisation: geo-strategy, geo-business strategy, forecasts and briefings for a board.
Strature, on film
The firm, its three domains and its four rules, in under a minute and a half.
A narrated film with captions. Nothing plays until you press play.
Read the transcript
The world order is changing. Regulation, sanctions, trade measures, technology rules: each one reaches a company somewhere it operates.
Strature is a consulting and forecasting firm in Toronto. It works on the things that matter in the changing world order: geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geotechnology.
For an organisation, that means three questions. What can reach us? Where does it bite? What is dated? An exposure assessment answers them, weighted by where the company earns its revenue.
Strature Advisory works with one organisation at a time: geo-strategy, where to be and where not to be; geo-business strategy, what the picture means for one business; forecasts and scenarios; and briefings for a board.
Strature Briefs is a published series. Each brief asks one question that can be settled, and answers it with a registered probability. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Four rules hold the work. Nothing is invented. A retrieval asserts its own completeness. A scan of nothing is not a clean scan. And a conflict is printed, not resolved.
Strature. strature.net. General research, not advice.
Latest from the library
19 briefs published. The newest:
Each brief answers one question. The summary sheet and the executive read are free to everyone; the full brief is supplied to organisations, free during the introductory period.
US gasoline below $3.50 by June 2027: possible, but not on the official path
Possible, off the official path: a week below $3.50 before July 2027, 34%, the sum of three scenarios, each our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.
China: Borrowing for the Past
Through mid-2027 what binds China's economy is at home and chosen by Beijing: the state is putting its new borrowing into clearing local governments' old debts rather than into demand - government bonds outstanding up 13.5% against total financing up 7.2%, while spending on the two main budgets fell in January-August and households paid down RMB1.03tn of loans - so exports keep growing and factory profits recover while household demand does not turn, and partners' pressure does not change that course.
Beyond CETA: what the EU relationship adds, and when exporters should commit
Defence access, not market access: by 31 December 2026 summit deals land and the EU share holds, 55% (8% + 47%), our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.
Canada: Access by List
Canada's entry to the market that still takes most of its exported goods is no longer secured by a treaty for any good Washington chooses to name - a list redrawn on its dates and reviewed every year - and its exporters and its own export lender are arranging themselves around that yearly clock, while the capital arriving still buys bonds rather than plant.
Strature GPS · Geopolitical · Geoeconomic · Geotechnology
304 questions our briefs address, across 59 countries; our briefs carry 103 registered forecasts.
Every question our released briefs answer, placed on the countries it touches, the answer quoted verbatim. Strature GPS has a page for each of the 96 countries our released work addresses.
Top risks now
- 1A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026
- Forecast F-0074 · 61%
- 2US tariffs on Canadian goods stay above their 2024 level and the pre-2025 terms are not restored, to 30 Sep 2027
- Forecast F-0173 · 92%
- 3Iran in July 2028: strikes go on, the regime breaks, or a step to the bomb
- Forecast F-0020 + F-0011 + F-0009 · 32%
Inside Strature GPS
Countries
Every country we cover, by region, with the risks that reach it.
Risks
Event risks and strait closures, each with our forecasts and who is exposed.
Goods & Chokepoints
What crosses which strait, and who depends on it.
Forecasts
Every probability we publish, registered first and scored when it resolves.
Strature Exposure · four demo editions
What can reach a company: four demo editions, each read end to end.
The bank’s edition assesses 41 changes that can reach RBC: six rules already in force, four comment periods closing by 14 Oct, and six more dated by 31 Dec 2026.
Restated from the edition’s summary, Strature Exposure, RBC, 28 Sep 2026
The regulations, bills, trade measures, sanctions and policies found for a company where it operates, weighted by where it earns its revenue, with every place not read printed as a gap, each with its official text and the options it opens. Re-issued as an edition.
RBC is the subject of the analysis, not a client. No endorsement by RBC is implied. Figures: edition of 28 Sep 2026, built from public sources.
Exhibit H-2 · Bars against a line · RBC
Canada carries 62.8% of RBC’s revenue; the United States a quarter.
Share of total revenue by geographic segment, fiscal year ended 31 October 2025. Percent.
Canada62.8%
United States25.8%
Other international11.3%
Percent of total revenue
The reading
Canada alone is more than half of the bank’s revenue, so a Canadian rule carries more weight in its exposure picture than an American one, and one from elsewhere less again.
SourceRBC Annual Report 2025, Note 26, Results by business segment, geographic segments table, Consolidated Financial Statements, p.234.
How to read this chartThe accent marks the part of Canada’s share that lies above half of revenue.
Exhibit H-2 · RBC · strature.net
A bank
Royal Bank of Canada. 41 assessed changes; 36 of them carry a date.
A car-parts maker
Magna International. Eight changes; three of the four rated major hinge on a fact about the company.
A port and logistics operator
DP World. Six changes, each waiting on a fact about the company before it is ranked.
An energy company
Suncor Energy. 57 assessed changes; seven lead the edition. With a narrated video.
Built by Strature from public sources. None was commissioned by, reviewed by or affiliated with the company it reads.
Strature Advisory
Engagements for one organisation, under an engagement letter.
Geopolitical, geoeconomic and geotechnology advisory for a company, an investor or a board. Strature never recommends securities.
Geo-strategy
Where to be, and where not to be, as the world order changes.
Geo-business strategy
What the geopolitical picture means for one business and its footprint.
Forecasts and scenarios
A decision answered with dated observables and a registered probability.
Briefings and presentations
A board or leadership session, in person, built from your exposure picture.
Track record
103 forecasts registered in public, never edited.
The first are scored on 4 Dec 2026. See the register
A principal-led firm, founded 2026.
Why Strature
- 1Scored in public.
Every forecast is registered before the fact and scored when it resolves, good or bad.
- 2Exposure measured from official texts.
Each item cites its official text; every place not read is printed as a gap.
- 3A free pilot.
An exposure assessment of your own company, free. Request a pilot.
The firm
Milad Naeimi, Principal.
Milad Naeimi
Principal, Strature
Milad Naeimi, Principal of Strature, built its method and platform to show companies how regulation, politics and sanctions reach their operations.
About the Principal
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