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European Union (27)

Gulf crude is a modest share of EU supply, but almost half of the jet fuel the EU imports from outside the bloc comes from the Gulf. Approved reading

This page answers: What does the EU depend on, and which of our questions concern it?

Using this page
  1. Read the Dependency profile: the country card and where supply comes from.
  2. Tap In scenarios to see how each closed strait reaches the EU.
  3. Scroll to the questions. Filter them, then open any brief.
  • Region Europe
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

The European Union (27) in our readings

The European Union (27) is in 1 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • US tariffs and Canada High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

  • Geopolitics and conflict

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    No index for the EU: each member state has its own.

  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    No index for the EU: each member state has its own.

  • Supply chains and chokepoints

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    No index for the EU: each member state has its own.

  • Energy and resources

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    No index for the EU: each member state has its own.

  • Technology and cyber

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    No index for the EU: each member state has its own.

  • Regulation and compliance

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    No index for the EU: each member state has its own.

  • Finance and markets

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    No index for the EU: each member state has its own.

Compare the European Union (27) on the outlook map

Dates for the EU on the risk calendar

Key questions (2)
The other side: 6 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach the European Union (27)

  • US tariffs and Canada High

    • F-0212 · The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 8%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

    • F-0213 · A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 47%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

    US tariffs and Canada

  • Strait of Hormuz No reading

    Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability.

    • F-0010 · Frozen Siege · 9.2%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 18 Jul 2028 · Open · brief C-002

    • F-0020 · Guard-Managed Attrition · 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 18 Jul 2028 · Open · brief C-002

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

If the Strait of Hormuz closes

Who runs short first

Case: Strait of Hormuz closed for 30 days. The day on file when the supply shortfall begins, or, where nothing runs short, when the late-arrival gap begins; late is never added to lost.

EU (27)

supply shortfall begins: day 19

first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)

The 27 member states as one buyer. Germany and France have their own pages; members are never added to the bloc or to a total.

Good by good (9)
  • Aluminium supply shortfall begins: day 19 first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
  • Ammonia supply shortfall begins: day 19 first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
  • Crude oil supply shortfall begins: day 19 first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
  • Helium supply shortfall begins: day 19 first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
  • LNG supply shortfall begins: day 19 first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
  • Methanol supply shortfall begins: day 19 first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
  • Polyethylene and polypropylene supply shortfall begins: day 19 first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
  • Refined fuels supply shortfall begins: day 19 first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)
  • Sulphur supply shortfall begins: day 19 first day with cargo lost (no stock record on file)

Each good keeps its own day; days and quantities are never added across goods.

First to run short in this case: India, day 4.

Days as on file in the precomputed case “Strait of Hormuz closed for 30 days” (Strature network pack, engine 1.2.2, the network map’s default settings). Day 0 is the first day of the closure; the shaded part of the line is the closure (30 days); the line runs to day 120.

Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

The Stock Clock in the Network map: every case, as clocks, lanes or a table

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much the EU (27) makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

Strature Notes

All Strature Notes

What to watch

  • Monthly Statistics Canada exports to the EU-27. US tariffs and Canada
  • 31 Dec 2026 Our six Q-027 forecasts on the EU-Canada summit and the EU share resolve. US tariffs and Canada
  • 1 Jan 2027 The threatened US tariff on Canadian vehicles could start (F-0167). US tariffs and Canada
  • Feb 2027 Importers start buying EU carbon border (CBAM) certificates for 2026 imports, including Canadian steel and aluminium; the charge has applied since 1 Jan 2026 (C-006). US tariffs and Canada

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of our supplies, or our suppliers' inputs, reach the European Union (27) through the Strait of Hormuz, and how much of each could come another way?
  • How many days of stock do we hold in the European Union (27) against the day a supply shortfall begins there in the case shown?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in the European Union (27), and which outcome would change them?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Dependency profileWhere supply comes from, the map, and how each case reaches the European Union (27)
Dependency profile

Country card · European Union (27), importer through the straits

Two themes; no combined score.

Chokepoints

Crude oil via Hormuz
6–13% of imports (2025)
Refined fuels via Hormuz
42–47% of imports (2025)
LNG via Hormuz
8.1% of imports (2025)
Urea and nitrogen fertilisers via Hormuz
0.1% of imports (2025)
Gas storage fill, 7 Oct 2026 (measured)
73.1% (gas day 7 Oct 2026 (as shown))
Oil stocks (emergency stocks, days equivalent, Directive basis)
93 days (Jun 2026)

Energy

Oil imported, share of use
91% (2024)
Gas imported, share of use
89% (2024)
All energy imported, share of use
66% (2024)
Renewables, share of electricity (Ember)
48% (2025)
Renewables, share of all energy (EIA)
10% (2024)

The Energy theme, centred on European Union (27) ›

Dashed underline = low confidence.

importer through the straitsFlows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where the EU’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

In scenarios: European Union (27)

Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait closes. Figures as of 2025 for flows; each figure shows its own period. Terms

Questions about the European Union (27)

Each answer is written from the cited figures by fixed rules; tap a number for its source.

How much of the EU’s supply crosses Hormuz?

On file, 6–13% of its crude oil imports; 42–47% of its refined fuels imports; 8.1% of its LNG imports cross the strait.

Written from the cited figures by fixed rules

Who supplies the EU’s crude oil?

Norway 14% (2025), United States 13% (2025), Kazakhstan 13% (2025) of its crude imports, with 2 more on the map. Each share is its own figure; they are not added. (map: lanes through the straits on file)

Written from the cited figures by fixed rules

How much of the EU’s energy is imported?

The EU imported 66% of the energy it used in 2024, and 91% of its oil.

Written from the cited figures by fixed rules

How many days of oil stocks does the EU hold?

The EU held 93 days (Jun 2026), counted as emergency stocks, days equivalent, Directive basis (our calculation from Eurostat).

Written from the cited figures by fixed rules

What this means

No approved block reading for the EU yet; this section shows approved readings only.

Not a country on the map

European Union, as one market.

The bloc’s own reading; its members with a reading of their own are on the map.

US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief

US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for European Union

The EU took 5.519% of Canada's 2025 exports, a High stake and the line Q-027's forecasts test. EU makers also hold 19.2% of US car imports, a rival if Canadian vehicles are taxed.

Theme band High

5.52%

EU-27 share of Canada's exports, 2025

EUR2,287.9mest.

Eligible exports entering without the CETA preference, EUR m, 2025 (as cited in Q-027)

19.2%

EU share of US car imports, 2025

C$91.7bn

Canada's imports from the EU-27, 2025

Read the full panel

Risks

  • 9 member states have yet to ratify CETA; until all have, it applies only provisionally.
  • Q-027 records that the US has cited Canada's EU trade terms in setting duties on Canada.
  • US duties on EU steel and aluminium stay at 50% under Section 232 (press summary). Estimate from press or commentary
  • The EU's lobster duty suspension now covers every origin, which narrows Canada's CETA edge in lobster.

Opportunities

  • Canadian aluminium turned to Europe: the EU took 17.1% of it in 2025, from 2.9%.
  • EU makers could gain if Canadian vehicles lose US access: up to US$5.63bn of Canada's US car sales pro rata, an upper bound, not a forecast.
  • About EUR 2,287.9m of eligible Canadian goods entered the EU without claiming the CETA preference in 2025 (an estimate, as cited in Q-027); wider use of the preference needs no new deal. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Canada's imports from the EU rose 6.1% in 2025 while those from the US fell 4.2%.

Uncertainties

  • Fuels, gold and aluminium made 83.6% of the January-July 2026 rise in Canada's exports to the EU, not broad demand.
  • Whether the EU-US 15% ceiling holds against new US measures.
  • EU totals are sums of member-state rows in US data, at heading level.

What to watch

  • MonthlyStatistics Canada exports to the EU-27.
  • 31 Dec 2026Our six Q-027 forecasts on the EU-Canada summit and the EU share resolve.
  • 1 Jan 2027The threatened US tariff on Canadian vehicles could start (F-0167).
  • Feb 2027Importers start buying EU carbon border (CBAM) certificates for 2026 imports, including Canadian steel and aluminium; the charge has applied since 1 Jan 2026 (C-006).

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Diversification marketTrade5.52% of Canada's exports 2025EU-27 share of Canada's goods exportsHighHigh ≥3% · Medium 1–3% · Low 0.5–1% (growth or brief-named)
US market rival (cars)Trade19.2% of US imports of the good 2025EU-27 share of US imports of passenger cars (HS 8703)MediumHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10% with ≥US$2bn
US market rival (parts)Trade9.2% of US imports of the good 2025EU-27 share of US imports of motor vehicle parts (HS 8708)LowHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10% with ≥US$2bn

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

EU-27 share of Canada's goods exports (%)
EU-27 share of Canada's goods exports (customs basis, unadjusted): 5.76% of Canada's exports (Jan-Jul 2026)Jan-Jul 20265.76EU-27 share of Canada's goods exports: 5.52% of Canada's exports (2025)20255.52EU-27 share of Canada's goods exports: 4.44% of Canada's exports (2024)20244.44

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, CIMT open data, total exports 2024 (ODPFN019); Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, total exports HS6 x country (ODPFN019), 2025 and 2024; Statistics Canada, Table 12-10-0011-01, international merchandise trade for all countries and by Principal Trading Partners, monthly (customs basis, unadjusted).

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Pro-rata share of Canada's US car sales (HS 8703) for EU makers (illustrative diversion ceiling): US$5.63bn (= Canada's US car sales × EU share of non-Canadian US car imports)
  • Margin of the EU share above the 5.519% line in Jan-Jul 2026, on a 2025-size export year: C$1.87bn (= (Jan-Jul 2026 EU share - 2025 EU share) × Canada's 2025 exports = (5.759 - 5.519)% × C$778.0bn)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →

Forecast register

Forecasts linked to the European Union (27)

A registered question, separate from the scenario results on this page: no probability is carried into the scenarios.

The European Union (27) reading names these forecasts in the register. In the register’s exact words, each with our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  • F-0212 · The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 8%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

  • F-0213 · A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 47%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

The forecast register

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Kpler and Vortexa figures appear only as published by the IEA or the EIA, credited to both.

Show the list

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait closes. Figures as of 2025 for flows; each figure shows its own period. Terms

    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Strature GPS · Figures as of 2025 for flows and as dated beside each other figure; scenario results built 30 Oct 2026.

    Sources and licences

    1. [1] Crude oil: share of imports through the Strait of Hormuz. Eurostat, 2025
    2. [2] LNG: share of imports through the Strait of Hormuz. European Commission, 2025
    3. [3] Urea and nitrogen fertilisers: share of imports through the Strait of Hormuz. Eurostat, 2025
    4. [4] Ammonia: share of imports through the Strait of Hormuz. Eurostat, 2025

    Cite this page Strature, “European Union (27)”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/eu/, 30 Oct 2026.

    • Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.
    • Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
    • Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability.
    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.
    • No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us.
    • General research, not advice.