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Norway

Norway's one Gulf dependence is aluminium: Gulf smelters supplied 30.4% of unwrought aluminium imports in 2025. Its 2026 petroleum cash flow estimate is NOK 671bn, NOK 150bn above the October 2025 estimate (cause not stated). Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Norway?

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  • Region Europe · Western Europe
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Your exposure

Norway in our readings

Norway is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · NORWAY
Norway produced more energy than it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
net exporter2024 · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 42.1%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Hydro, 90.0%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 99.0% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.412024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: concentrated

Value-chain positions: not on file.

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Norway · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Elevated
  • Energy and resources Low
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Norway on the outlook map

Dates for Norway on the risk calendar

The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Norway

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Norway: no Hormuz shipping volume (tonnes or barrels) for it is on file, and the scenario cases need one.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Norway makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly SSB trade by origin: aluminium arrivals from the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • May 2027 Revised National Budget: the next update of the petroleum cash flow estimates. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Norway?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Norway, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Norway on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Norway

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Norway.

Chokepoints

Not enough open data
Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Crude oil, 2025: Panama 0.2% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz
  • Import dependence
  • Oil stocks in days
  • A headline line
  • Supply routes into it

Dashed underline = low confidence.

Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

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    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Norway.

    Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Norway

    Norway's one Gulf dependence is aluminium: Gulf smelters supplied 30.4% of unwrought aluminium imports in 2025. Its 2026 petroleum cash flow estimate is NOK 671bn, NOK 150bn above the October 2025 estimate (cause not stated).

    Theme band Medium

    30.4%

    of unwrought aluminium imports from Gulf smelters, by weight (2025)

    NOK671bn

    state petroleum net cash flow, 2026 estimate (Oct 2026)

    60%

    Qatalum (Hydro 50%) capacity in use from Mar 2026

    115.8

    pipeline gas exported to Europe (2025)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • The UAE, Qatar and Bahrain sent 55.1 of 181.1 kt of the unwrought aluminium imported in 2025. That metal feeds remelt and casthouse lines; a loss is replaced from Brazil or elsewhere.
    • Hydro owns half of Qatalum in Qatar. The plant ran at about 60% of capacity from March 2026; Hydro's half earned NOK 1.3bn in 2025.
    • Norway trades road diesel both ways: imports equal 65.5% of use, though refineries make more than is used. The Gulf sends only 4.2% of product imports; Sweden and the Netherlands send 35.7% and 24.2%, so the risk comes through European supply and prices.
    • Fertiliser plants import ammonia (575.5 kt in 2025) from Trinidad and Tobago, the US and Algeria, not the Gulf. The exposure is to price, not to supply.

    Opportunities

    • The state's 2026 petroleum net cash flow is now put at NOK 671bn, NOK 150bn above the October 2025 estimate of NOK 521bn.
    • Norway is a large supplier to Europe from outside the Gulf: 115.8 bn Sm3 of pipeline gas and 618.0 million barrels of crude exported in 2025.
    • Germany and the UK took 37.1% and 25.3% of pipeline gas exports in 2025. Pipeline supply does not pass the Strait.

    Uncertainties

    • The budget pages read give no cause for the NOK 150bn upward revision, so the war's share of it is not measured.
    • The gain may not last: the 2027 estimate is NOK 568bn.
    • Hydro gave no restart date for Qatalum in March 2026, and no later statement was found in the company releases searched in Oct 2026.
    • LNG exports from Hammerfest fell 33.0% in 2025, so Norway adds little LNG to replace Qatari cargoes.

    What to watch

    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves: a renewed strike could keep Gulf aluminium and Qatari gas off the water.
    • MonthlySSB trade by origin: aluminium arrivals from the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain.
    • QuarterlyHydro reports: Qatalum output and any restart of idle capacity.
    • May 2027Revised National Budget: the next update of the petroleum cash flow estimates.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    AluminiumSupply chain30.4% 2025Gulf (Hormuz producers) share of all unwrought aluminium imports (HS 7601), quantityMediumHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%
    Refined productsDependence4.2% 2025Gulf (Hormuz producers) share of refined product imports (HS 2710), quantityBelow lineHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
    Exports to the GulfTrade0.54% 2025Goods exports to the Hormuz Gulf producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq) as % of total goods exportsBelow lineHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Gulf share by channel, 2025 (%)
    Gulf (Hormuz producers) share of all unwrought aluminium imports (HS 7601), quantity: 30.4% (2025) (our calculation)All unwrought alumini…*30.40Gulf (Hormuz producers) share of refined product imports (HS 2710), quantity: 4.2% (2025)Refined product: Gulf4.20Qatar share of rare gas (incl. helium) imports (HS 28042900), value: 1.2% (2025)Qatar1.20Goods exports to the Hormuz Gulf producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq) as % of total goods exports: 0.54% (2025)Hormuz Gulf producers0.54

    GulfElsewhereTotals

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Norway (SSB), Table 08801: External trade in goods by commodity number, country and year. * Our calculation from the cited figures.

    Briefs and questions

    • T-003 How the Strait was repriced cargo by cargo, and why LNG recovered least.
    • S-001 F-0074 Renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026: our estimate, scored when it resolves.

    Sources cited

    Our calculations

    • Gulf (Hormuz producers) share of all unwrought aluminium imports (HS 7601), quantity: 30.4% (= sum of UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran and Iraq imports over total imports, three HS 7601 lines, kg)
    • Upward revision of the 2026 state petroleum net cash flow estimate, Oct 2025 to Oct 2026: NOK150bn (= Oct 2026 estimate minus Oct 2025 estimate for 2026)
    • Gulf unwrought aluminium to replace if Gulf loadings stop for 3 months (on 2025 volumes): 13.8 thousand t (= 2025 Gulf HS 7601 imports (55.13 kt) × 3/12)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 28 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    ISO 3166-1 name: Norway (NOR). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Norway”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/nor/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
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