Ireland's stake is Low: C$11.3bn of direct investment in Canada. It sent 1.06% of its goods exports to Canada in 2025, down from 2.08% in 2023; medicines are 43% of Canada's imports from it. Approved reading
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Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set
Geopolitics and conflict
Outlook
Not yet set
Index
0.9 /10range 0.0–2.2partial
First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.
Data: European Commission Joint Research Centre (INFORM), INFORM Risk; Natural Earth; Strature, forecast register; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP battle deaths; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP event data; World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators
F-0176 · Fortress North America: Canada accepts aligning its outside tariffs with US policy as the price of restored access · 7%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006
Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Ireland.
Chokepoints
Not enough open data
Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
Crude oil, 2024: Panama 0.2% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled
Refined fuels, 2024: Panama 0.2% (the route model covers 99% of its named imports) modelled
Not on file
A cited share of imports through Hormuz
Import dependence
Oil stocks in days
A headline line
Dashed underline = low confidence.
Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›
Where Ireland’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way
DirectionYear
Sources in this profile
Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.
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Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.
No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.
Questions our briefs address
Questions our briefs address
The questions our published briefs address that touch Ireland.
LowUS tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for IrelandUS tariffsUS tariffs and Canada
Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Ireland
Ireland's stake is Low: C$11.3bn of direct investment in Canada. It sent 1.06% of its goods exports to Canada in 2025, down from 2.08% in 2023; medicines are 43% of Canada's imports from it.
Theme band Low
1.06%
Share of Irish goods exports going to Canada, 2025
C$4.93bn
Canada's imports from Ireland, 2025
C$3.86bn
Canada's imports from Ireland, 2024
C$11.3bn
Direct investment in Canada, 2025
Read the full panel
Risks
If Canada aligned its outside tariffs with US policy (F-0176), Irish medicines, 43% of Canada's imports from Ireland, could face them; which goods would be covered is not known.
Ireland has not ratified CETA: its Supreme Court ruled 4 to 3 in Nov 2022 that the law needs to change first (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
A Canadian recession (F-0174) would cut Irish sales to Canada.
Opportunities
Canada's imports from Ireland rose 27.7% in 2025 while its imports from the US fell 4.2%.
Canada supplies 49.1% of Ireland's maize imports, and Canada's exports to Ireland rose 20.8% in 2025.
Uncertainties
Medicines trade follows company supply chains: medicines were 43% of Canada's imports from Ireland in 2025.
Direct investment of C$11.3bn is counted by immediate investor and may include holdings for investors elsewhere.
What to watch
31 Dec 2026The Q-027 forecasts on the EU share of Canada's exports resolve.
30 Sep 2027F-0176 resolves.
31 Dec 2027F-0174, Canada in recession, resolves.
Exposure by channel
Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
Channel
Figure
Band
Published line
Capital in CanadaCapital and finance
C$11.3bn2025Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country)
Low
High ≥C$100bn · Medium ≥C$25bn and <C$100bn · Low ≥C$10bn and <C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placed
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Canada's imports from Ireland (C$ bn)
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, imports HS2 x country (ODPFN022), 2025 and 2024; Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, imports HS6 x country (ODPFN015), 2025.
Medicines bought from Ireland exposed if Canada aligned its outside tariffs with US policy: C$2.1bn (= Canada's 2025 imports from Ireland × medicines (HS 30) share)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 25 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →
Filter the questions Domain · Series · Topic
DomainSeriesTopic
About Ireland: the brief’s subject
Where Ireland acts · 1 question
Decision Brief · Q-027 · 1 questionBeyond CETA: what the EU relationship adds, and when exporters should commit
Geopolitical · Geoeconomic
How many member states still have not ratified CETA, nine years on?
“France and Italy are among 10 member states that have not ratified CETA, 9 years after it began to apply. For exporters, today's terms keep running, but any access beyond them waits on those votes.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Belgium +8
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, and so is each sentence under “What it says”; anything labelled “Context, not from the brief” comes from the public source named beside it. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Europe · North America
ISO 3166-1 name: Ireland (IRL). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
Published briefs
Briefs with Ireland as their subject.
No published brief has Ireland as its subject yet; the questions above name it in another role.
Forecast register
Forecasts on the register attached to the questions above.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
Registered forecasts attached to questions touching Ireland: identifier, forecast, our estimate, issued, resolves by, status
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General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources and licences
No figure on this page yet.
Cite this page Strature, “Ireland”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/irl/, 31 Oct 2026.
Notes and limits
General research, not advice.
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