18 questions answered in 3 published briefs · Updated 1 Oct 2026
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Japan, Republic of Korea, China, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen, United States of America
“Here ‘closed’ means conditions 2, 3 and 4 persisting, the ones buyers' contracts and insurance respond to, with the shuttle running.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Islamic Republic of Iran, United States of America, Oman
“Each capacity is quoted on its own basis, and we never add them. The pipeline's nameplate is about 7 mb/d (Saudi Ministry of Energy), a ceiling, not a flow.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen
“No grade offer on file named October or later, and volume by grade is not published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt
“Any count built on transponder signals cannot log a ship that has switched its transponder off at a berth.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Yemen
“Across the three readings the twelve-month low end spans 350 million barrels and its high end 722; with nothing leaving the Gulf, the high end spans 924.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia
“The low end's shuttle, 0.9 mb/d, fits the smaller sale's remaining pace if it has loaded as stated (0.65–0.97) and falls short of the larger at an even pace unless some loaded early.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia
“Adding the shortest timed voyage (Ulsan 21 days, Zhanjiang 18, Sikka 3), the first cargo reaches Korea after 58 days, China after 55 and India after 40 at the earliest.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Republic of Korea, China, India
“Korea cut 40 days of average sales to 20 from 29 May, until separately lifted, as reported by The Korea Times and Newspim; no restoring notice was found in searches to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Japan, Republic of Korea
“No party running the escort has said how long it lasts; the US commander's statement of 19 September gave no duration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected United States of America, Islamic Republic of Iran, Yemen
“Once a pattern settles, the tanks run dry wherever ships lift faster than the pipe delivers.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia
“No year since 1979 reordered the Gulf and the Levant as fast as 2026, and it did so mainly by taking things away from Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey
“The largest Iran exposure most firms carry sits outside Iran: the strait, the oil price, the compliance chain, Gulf assets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq
“Crude through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 mb/d to 28 Sep 2026, matching the pre-war baseline, under US military escorts and ship-to-ship transfers (Kpler, via CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain
“Airports, fuel tanks and at least one desalination plant were struck, the source recorded; the Saudi East-West pipeline was shut in September 2026 after a drone strike launched from Iraq (CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates
“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea
“Crude kept 23.3 per cent of its late-2025 flow, products 19.3 per cent and LNG 7.6 per cent.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain
“Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have operating pipelines around the Strait, on EIA's record: the 5-million-barrel-a-day East-West line to the Red Sea and a 1.5-million line to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Asia · East Asia · Middle East · South Asia
Edition 1.0 · 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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The full brief goes to organisations who accept the terms and whose order is approved; there is no charge while prices are not published.
Q 023 · Edition 1.0
C 002 · Edition 1.0
T 003 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.