74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.
Archive edition. Researched 25 September 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
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General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice, not tailored to any reader, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves; to the fullest extent permitted by law Strature accepts no liability (otherwise capped at the fee paid). Full terms in the full brief.
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Kpler put Saudi crude exports for September at 6 mb/d, against 3.4 in August.
CNBC, 25 Sep 2026 (Kpler data), retrieved 30 Sep 2026
Kpler put Saudi exports on track for about 5.4 mb/d in September, from 2.446 in August, with Ras Tanura at about 3.25. The same tracker's figures differ between the two reports; both are printed, neither is preferred.
Reuters via BOE Report, 28 Sep 2026, retrieved 30 Sep 2026
19 VLCCs carrying about 2 million barrels of Saudi oil each left the Strait of Hormuz in the week before, on transponder tracking.
Reuters via BOE Report, 28 Sep 2026 (Kpler data)
Crude through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 mb/d, which Kpler describes as the pre-war baseline; crude and products together were about 80% of it. Condition 4, collapsed flow, is now contested on barrels as well as ship counts.
CNBC, 30 Sep 2026 (Kpler data), retrieved 30 Sep 2026
Yanbu tanker loadings resumed: imagery of 27 September showed nearly 10 million barrels of crude loading at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz, and Reuters reported crude loadings at about 2 mb/d. The September pattern with Yanbu halted no longer describes the present.
Reuters via MarineLink and Pipeline & Gas Journal, 29 Sep 2026 (TankerTrackers.com imagery)
Reuters reported East-West pipeline throughput at about 2 mb/d, and Kpler at 2.65, expected to rise to 3–4 in the coming days; a return to the pre-attack rate of about 5.5 could take another month (Kpler). No figure states whether it counts pumping or delivery to Yanbu, so none of the three readings is settled.
Reuters via MarineLink, 29 Sep 2026
Reuters reported that Aramco had notified customers of its October loading schedule from Yanbu; grades were not reported. Crude loadings at Sidi Kerir resumed on 22 September after a 10-day pause.
Reuters via MarineLink, 29 Sep 2026 (Kpler note for Sidi Kerir)
CNBC reported that Iran had offered to reopen Hormuz within seven days if the United States returned to the June memorandum of understanding, and that the US President rejected the offer.
CNBC, 30 Sep 2026
Unchanged on re-reading: the seafarers' Hormuz war-area listing runs to 8 October; the UK P&I Club's prior-approval terms for Hormuz transits stand.
IBF list via IMEC; UK P&I Club Circular 05/26; both retrieved 30 Sep 2026
This edition carries no registered forecast. The source edition's working assumptions are not probabilities and are not in the forecast register; no new forecast is issued here.
Strature forecast register; SCE-1 ratification record
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Japan, Republic of Korea, China, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen, United States of America
“Here ‘closed’ means conditions 2, 3 and 4 persisting, the ones buyers' contracts and insurance respond to, with the shuttle running.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Islamic Republic of Iran, United States of America, Oman
“Each capacity is quoted on its own basis, and we never add them. The pipeline's nameplate is about 7 mb/d (Saudi Ministry of Energy), a ceiling, not a flow.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen
“No grade offer on file named October or later, and volume by grade is not published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt
“Any count built on transponder signals cannot log a ship that has switched its transponder off at a berth.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Yemen
“Across the three readings the twelve-month low end spans 350 million barrels and its high end 722; with nothing leaving the Gulf, the high end spans 924.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia
“The low end's shuttle, 0.9 mb/d, fits the smaller sale's remaining pace if it has loaded as stated (0.65–0.97) and falls short of the larger at an even pace unless some loaded early.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia
“Adding the shortest timed voyage (Ulsan 21 days, Zhanjiang 18, Sikka 3), the first cargo reaches Korea after 58 days, China after 55 and India after 40 at the earliest.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Republic of Korea, China, India
“Korea cut 40 days of average sales to 20 from 29 May, until separately lifted, as reported by The Korea Times and Newspim; no restoring notice was found in searches to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Japan, Republic of Korea
“No party running the escort has said how long it lasts; the US commander's statement of 19 September gave no duration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected United States of America, Islamic Republic of Iran, Yemen
“Once a pattern settles, the tanks run dry wherever ships lift faster than the pipe delivers.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia
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