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Decision Brief · Q 023 · 3 questionsIf the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, how much Saudi crude can reach buyers, and for how long?
GeopoliticalGeoeconomicAnswer30 Sep 2026
If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, how much Saudi crude can reach buyers, and for how long?
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.
Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Japan, Republic of Korea, China, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen, United States of America
Geoeconomic03. Two routes carry nearly all Saudi crude30 Sep 2026
Which routes can Saudi crude take out with Hormuz closed?
“Each capacity is quoted on its own basis, and we never add them. The pipeline's nameplate is about 7 mb/d (Saudi Ministry of Energy), a ceiling, not a flow.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.
Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions East Asia · Middle East · South Asia
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