30 questions answered in 4 published briefs · Updated 1 Oct 2026
“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea
“Crude kept 23.3 per cent of its late-2025 flow, products 19.3 per cent and LNG 7.6 per cent.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain
“The Joint Maritime Information Center's Update 082 of 9 August 2026 described traffic at reduced levels across a northern Iranian-controlled route and a southern Omani corridor, and stated that neutral transit was permitted.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have operating pipelines around the Strait, on EIA's record: the 5-million-barrel-a-day East-West line to the Red Sea and a 1.5-million line to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain
“Iran's instrument was routing and charging rather than denial. JMIC recorded directed hails toward the northern route.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected United States of America
“On the Kiel Institute's model of a full closure, US welfare falls by 0.07 per cent while losses in South Asia and Africa are 10 to 20 times larger in percentage terms.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected United States of America, India, Republic of Korea, Japan, China
“The two largest strategic holders behind the Strait were not part of it. EIA estimates China's strategic stock at 1,492 million barrels in the second quarter of 2026 and India's at 21 million; neither country is an IEA member.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea
“Rather than choose a reader, the source edition swept nine classes of the public record and found 154 parties with a stake: 59 lose, 39 gain and 56 do both.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“The asymmetry comes from disclosure rules, not from the world: a listed company must report its earnings, and nobody must price what a force majeure notice cost them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Bangladesh
“Al Jazeera reported on 23 July 2026 that an S&P Global report put war-risk costs at 7.5 to 10 per cent of hull value, from 1 to 3 per cent previously.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“The Lloyd's Market Association stated on 23 March 2026 that hull war cover remained available in the Lloyd's and London company market for vessels wishing to transit, and that liability cover through the P&I clubs is non-cancellable.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“A right to refuse is not a price: it withdraws crews one at a time, with no published rate.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected India, Philippines
“The longest formal notice found in the record read here is the UK P&I Club's 72 hours, and it ran from midnight GMT on 28 February 2026, the day the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait, Qatar
“Gulf economies supplied 24.8 per cent of world nitrogenous fertiliser exports and 11.4 per cent of phosphatic exports, on the WTO's figures.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Africa, United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Brazil, Nepal, Sri Lanka
“Reopening the water restores none of this; a recovery read only as a transit problem would be waiting for something that is not in transit.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Qatar
“On 30 September 2026 none of the four had been retired: crude had recovered while LNG had no newer EIA figure, and JWLA-035 of 16 September still listed the Gulf.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“The clause's on-hire sentence is keyed to (f), and its text states no hire rule for a refusal under (b).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“This brief does not establish the physical state of Qatari liquefaction.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“By 28 September crude was back at Kpler's pre-war baseline; products were 677 kb/d against 3.6 mb/d before the war (Kpler data via CNBC).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Japan, Republic of Korea, China, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen, United States of America
“Here ‘closed’ means conditions 2, 3 and 4 persisting, the ones buyers' contracts and insurance respond to, with the shuttle running.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Islamic Republic of Iran, United States of America, Oman
“Each capacity is quoted on its own basis, and we never add them. The pipeline's nameplate is about 7 mb/d (Saudi Ministry of Energy), a ceiling, not a flow.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen
“No grade offer on file named October or later, and volume by grade is not published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt
“Six were in force on 21 August 2026 with no renewed strike”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected United States of America, Oman, United Arab Emirates
“Washington's designations do not cite the London condition, the condition does not cite them, and Tehran's requirement cites neither.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected United States of America, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Oman
“A negotiated reopening, Iran's conditions met, or the strait forced open: the only roads any party has named.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected United States of America, Oman
“A one-dollar toll and a two-million-dollar toll carry the same consequence, and the guidance note states it also reaches payments to a non-Iranian entity such as Oman, or other states.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Oman
“No year since 1979 reordered the Gulf and the Levant as fast as 2026, and it did so mainly by taking things away from Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey
“The largest Iran exposure most firms carry sits outside Iran: the strait, the oil price, the compliance chain, Gulf assets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq
“Crude through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 mb/d to 28 Sep 2026, matching the pre-war baseline, under US military escorts and ship-to-ship transfers (Kpler, via CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Africa · Asia · East Asia · Europe · Middle East · North America · South America · South Asia
Edition 1.0 · 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
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No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
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