Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.
Archive edition. Researched 3 September 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
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General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice, not tailored to any reader, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves; to the fullest extent permitted by law Strature accepts no liability (otherwise capped at the fee paid). Full terms in the full brief.
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EIA's September outlook forecast rising Middle East oil production as flows through the Strait gradually increase, with crude production in the region below pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027. Its quarterly Hormuz table still ends at 2Q 2026.
EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, 9 Sep 2026, read 30 Sep 2026
The Joint War Committee issued JWLA-035. It keeps the Persian/Arabian Gulf area and Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates listed; Saudi Arabia is now listed as a country, where JWLA-033 listed its Gulf coast and its Red Sea coast excluding transits.
Joint War Committee, JWLA-033 and JWLA-035, read 30 Sep 2026
The IBF list of warlike and risk designations, as of 17 September, was extended until 8 October 2026, with the Strait of Hormuz on it.
IMEC, IBF risk areas page, read 30 Sep 2026
The US President rejected an Iranian plan to reopen the Strait within seven days, according to Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera, 26 Sep 2026, read 30 Sep 2026
Crude through the Strait reached a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels a day, matching the pre-war baseline, while refined products ran at 677,000 barrels a day against 3.6 million before the war; about 40 per cent of Gulf crude was bypassing the Strait by pipeline, against 17 per cent before the war. CNBC reported that US military escorts had lifted shipments. Kpler's pre-war baseline (about 17 million barrels a day of crude and products) differs from the IEA's 19.87 million for 2025; both are printed. Kpler's crude baseline (13.5) also differs from EIA's 4Q 2025 crude figure (15.9); both are printed.
Kpler data via CNBC, 30 Sep 2026, read 30 Sep 2026
Correction. The wording on monetizing the Strait is in the US Treasury's press release of 29 July 2026, not, as the source edition said, in Federal Register rule 2026-17426, whose published abstract describes the suspension of five general licences (effective 24 Aug 2026); the rule's full text could not be read on 30 September 2026.
Federal Register 2026-17426, published abstract; US Treasury, 29 Jul 2026; both read 30 Sep 2026
Correction. The 7.5 to 10 per cent war-risk range of July is credited by its carrier, Al Jazeera, to an S&P Global report, not to Marsh as the source edition said.
Al Jazeera, 23 Jul 2026, read 30 Sep 2026
Correction. The nine IEA members the source edition named contributed 344.5 million of the 426 million barrels; 21 further members supplied the rest, not seven. The US offer of political risk insurance was announced on 3 March, according to CRS, not on day six.
IEA, 19 Mar 2026; CRS R45281, updated 7 Aug 2026; both read 30 Sep 2026
Correction. Frontline's filing describes its second-quarter 2026 profit as the best quarterly profit in its history; the source edition said best since 2004. Oil through the Strait was 21.6 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2025; the source's 20.9 is the first quarter of 2025. EIA's data supplement is dated 12 August 2026, not 11 August.
Frontline 6-K, 28 Aug 2026; EIA, read 30 Sep 2026
Correction. Under the published 2025 time-charter war clause, the on-hire sentence covers the events in sub-clause (f); the owners' refusal sits in (b), for which the text states no hire rule. The source edition's clause plate placed the refusal under (f).
BIMCO, CONWARTIME 2025, read 30 Sep 2026
Not carried. A port-call comparison (Saudi Arabia down 15 per cent, Kuwait down 86 per cent) had no publisher traced in the source's record; a statement attributed to the Philippine labour secretary was not found on the page cited; and a second closure dated 11 June was not found in the sources read.
Source edition's record; BusinessWorld, 27 Apr 2026; CRS R45281; read 30 Sep 2026
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea
“Crude kept 23.3 per cent of its late-2025 flow, products 19.3 per cent and LNG 7.6 per cent.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain
“The Joint Maritime Information Center's Update 082 of 9 August 2026 described traffic at reduced levels across a northern Iranian-controlled route and a southern Omani corridor, and stated that neutral transit was permitted.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have operating pipelines around the Strait, on EIA's record: the 5-million-barrel-a-day East-West line to the Red Sea and a 1.5-million line to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain
“Iran's instrument was routing and charging rather than denial. JMIC recorded directed hails toward the northern route.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected United States of America
“On the Kiel Institute's model of a full closure, US welfare falls by 0.07 per cent while losses in South Asia and Africa are 10 to 20 times larger in percentage terms.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected United States of America, India, Republic of Korea, Japan, China
“The two largest strategic holders behind the Strait were not part of it. EIA estimates China's strategic stock at 1,492 million barrels in the second quarter of 2026 and India's at 21 million; neither country is an IEA member.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea
“Rather than choose a reader, the source edition swept nine classes of the public record and found 154 parties with a stake: 59 lose, 39 gain and 56 do both.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“The asymmetry comes from disclosure rules, not from the world: a listed company must report its earnings, and nobody must price what a force majeure notice cost them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Bangladesh
“Al Jazeera reported on 23 July 2026 that an S&P Global report put war-risk costs at 7.5 to 10 per cent of hull value, from 1 to 3 per cent previously.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“The Lloyd's Market Association stated on 23 March 2026 that hull war cover remained available in the Lloyd's and London company market for vessels wishing to transit, and that liability cover through the P&I clubs is non-cancellable.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“A right to refuse is not a price: it withdraws crews one at a time, with no published rate.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected India, Philippines
“The longest formal notice found in the record read here is the UK P&I Club's 72 hours, and it ran from midnight GMT on 28 February 2026, the day the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait, Qatar
“Gulf economies supplied 24.8 per cent of world nitrogenous fertiliser exports and 11.4 per cent of phosphatic exports, on the WTO's figures.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Africa, United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Brazil, Nepal, Sri Lanka
“Reopening the water restores none of this; a recovery read only as a transit problem would be waiting for something that is not in transit.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Qatar
“On 30 September 2026 none of the four had been retired: crude had recovered while LNG had no newer EIA figure, and JWLA-035 of 16 September still listed the Gulf.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“The clause's on-hire sentence is keyed to (f), and its text states no hire rule for a refusal under (b).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“This brief does not establish the physical state of Qatari liquefaction.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
“By 28 September crude was back at Kpler's pre-war baseline; products were 677 kb/d against 3.6 mb/d before the war (Kpler data via CNBC).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman
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