The questions our published briefs answer that touch South Africa.
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About South Africa (primary)
Where South Africa is affected
Theme Brief · T 003 · 1 questionWas the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
Geoeconomic13. Urea prices fell back, but the planting decisions were taken near the peak30 Sep 2026
Which economies are most exposed to the Gulf fertiliser shock?
“Gulf economies supplied 24.8 per cent of world nitrogenous fertiliser exports and 11.4 per cent of phosphatic exports, on the WTO's figures.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.
Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Africa, United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Brazil, Nepal, Sri Lanka
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Africa · Asia · Middle East · South America
Published briefs
Briefs with South Africa as their subject.
No published brief has South Africa as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Forecast register
Forecasts on the register attached to the questions above.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
Registered forecasts attached to questions touching South Africa: identifier, forecast, our estimate, issued, resolves by, status
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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