5 questions answered in 3 published briefs · Updated 1 Oct 2026
“It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America, Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Province of China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Philippines
“122 export cargo records, June 2025 to July 2026: Korea 46, China 36, Japan 25, Taiwan 10, three others 5.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Province of China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Philippines
“For this class the question is reliability, and the measured answer is: demonstrated, small and single-sourced.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Province of China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Philippines
“The ten tails are kept as named ways the picture could break, each with its early sign; the structure of the axes is in the annex.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China Affected Taiwan, Province of China, Japan, Philippines
“A right to refuse is not a price: it withdraws crews one at a time, with no published rate.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected India, Philippines
No question matches the chosen filters.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Asia · East Asia · Indo-Pacific · Middle East · North America · Southeast Asia
No published brief has Philippines as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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The full brief goes to organisations who accept the terms and whose order is approved; there is no charge while prices are not published.
T 001 · Edition 1.0
C 003 · Edition 1.0
T 003 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.