18 questions answered in 3 published briefs · Updated 1 Oct 2026
“No. The more concentrated side is supply: China supplied 40.9 per cent of Vietnam's 2025 imports, against a 32.2 per cent US share of exports, for as long as assembly runs on imported components.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected China, United States of America
“The United States took 32.2% of what Vietnam sold and supplied 4.2% of what it bought. China supplied 40.9% of what it bought and took 14.8% of what it sold.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected United States of America, China
“In 2023, HS chapter 85 (electrical machinery and equipment) was the largest chapter on both sides of the account, and no other chapter behaved that way.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam
“Counterparty concentration, measured as a Herfindahl index over countries, was higher on imports than on exports in 2023, and highest of all inside chapter 85's imports.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected China, Republic of Korea
“Trade in goods and services was 190.3% of Vietnam's GDP in 2025, against 68.5% for the world aggregate, and exports of goods and services alone were 98.2% of GDP (World Bank, re-checked 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam
“Four domains pass: two are core (market access at the outbound end, component supply at the inbound end) and two pass (value retained at home, capital inflows).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam
“A change in the buyer market's trade rules acts on revenue. The United States took US$153.2bn of Vietnam's 2025 goods exports (NSO, preliminary).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected United States of America
“An interruption in supply acts on the ability to produce, not only on revenue: where the outbound leg consists of assembling the inbound one, a supply shock stops output rather than scaling it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected China, Republic of Korea
“On the OECD's modelled estimate, 51.5% of the value in Vietnam's gross exports was produced in Vietnam in 2022, the smallest share of the six economies compared.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam
“Net foreign direct investment inflows were US$20.2bn in 2024, the largest of the fourteen years drawn, through a pandemic, a tariff dispute and a global rate cycle (World Bank, re-checked 30 Sep 2026; no 2025 value yet).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam
“China supplied 40.9% of Vietnam's imports in the NSO's 2025 tables and 41.0% in January to August 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected China
“The NSO's report of 3 September 2026 records a goods deficit of US$20.46bn for January to August 2026, against a surplus of US$14.02bn a year earlier; imports rose 35.3% and exports 22.4%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam
“For 2025, Vietnam reports US$153.2bn of exports to the United States; the US Census Bureau reports US$193.9bn of imports from Vietnam.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected United States of America
“The call would be wrong if, in Vietnam's own partner tables, the import side became the less concentrated side of the account, or if China's share of imports fell below the United States' share of exports.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected China, United States of America
“It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America, Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Province of China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Philippines
“122 export cargo records, June 2025 to July 2026: Korea 46, China 36, Japan 25, Taiwan 10, three others 5.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Province of China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Philippines
“For this class the question is reliability, and the measured answer is: demonstrated, small and single-sourced.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Province of China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Philippines
“Vietnam +2.1 points and Mexico +2.0 points of US import share since 2018”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary China Affected United States of America, Viet Nam, Mexico
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions East Asia · North America · Southeast Asia
Edition 1.0 · 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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T 001 · Edition 1.0
C 001 · Edition 1.0
C 003 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.