12 questions answered in 4 published briefs · Updated 1 Oct 2026
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Japan, Republic of Korea, China, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen, United States of America
“Adding the shortest timed voyage (Ulsan 21 days, Zhanjiang 18, Sikka 3), the first cargo reaches Korea after 58 days, China after 55 and India after 40 at the earliest.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Republic of Korea, China, India
“Korea cut 40 days of average sales to 20 from 29 May, until separately lifted, as reported by The Korea Times and Newspim; no restoring notice was found in searches to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Japan, Republic of Korea
“It has started, but small: in 12 months to July 2026, 11.3 of 96.8 bcm of gas exports and 32.6 of 256.0 million m³ of crude went beyond the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America, Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Province of China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Philippines
“122 export cargo records, June 2025 to July 2026: Korea 46, China 36, Japan 25, Taiwan 10, three others 5.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Province of China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Philippines
“For this class the question is reliability, and the measured answer is: demonstrated, small and single-sourced.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Province of China, Viet Nam, Thailand, Philippines
“UN Comtrade records China, Japan and Korea as the largest 2025 destinations of Canadian coal and of ores, slag and ash; they are also the three largest destinations of the gas cargoes”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected China, Japan, Republic of Korea
“Counterparty concentration, measured as a Herfindahl index over countries, was higher on imports than on exports in 2023, and highest of all inside chapter 85's imports.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected China, Republic of Korea
“An interruption in supply acts on the ability to produce, not only on revenue: where the outbound leg consists of assembling the inbound one, a supply shock stops output rather than scaling it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Viet Nam Affected China, Republic of Korea
“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea
“On the Kiel Institute's model of a full closure, US welfare falls by 0.07 per cent while losses in South Asia and Africa are 10 to 20 times larger in percentage terms.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected United States of America, India, Republic of Korea, Japan, China
“The two largest strategic holders behind the Strait were not part of it. EIA estimates China's strategic stock at 1,492 million barrels in the second quarter of 2026 and India's at 21 million; neither country is an IEA member.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea
No question matches the chosen filters.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Asia · East Asia · Middle East · North America · South Asia · Southeast Asia
No published brief has Republic of Korea as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
|---|
The full brief goes to organisations who accept the terms and whose order is approved; there is no charge while prices are not published.
Q 023 · Edition 1.0
T 001 · Edition 1.0
C 001 · Edition 1.0
T 003 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.