8 questions answered in 2 published briefs · Updated 1 Oct 2026
“No year since 1979 reordered the Gulf and the Levant as fast as 2026, and it did so mainly by taking things away from Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey
“The largest Iran exposure most firms carry sits outside Iran: the strait, the oil price, the compliance chain, Gulf assets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq
“Crude through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 mb/d to 28 Sep 2026, matching the pre-war baseline, under US military escorts and ship-to-ship transfers (Kpler, via CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain
“Airports, fuel tanks and at least one desalination plant were struck, the source recorded; the Saudi East-West pipeline was shut in September 2026 after a drone strike launched from Iraq (CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran Affected Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates
“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea
“Crude kept 23.3 per cent of its late-2025 flow, products 19.3 per cent and LNG 7.6 per cent.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain
“Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have operating pipelines around the Strait, on EIA's record: the 5-million-barrel-a-day East-West line to the Red Sea and a 1.5-million line to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain
“The longest formal notice found in the record read here is the UK P&I Club's 72 hours, and it ran from midnight GMT on 28 February 2026, the day the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman Affected Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait, Qatar
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Africa · Asia · Middle East
No published brief has Kuwait as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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C 002 · Edition 1.0
T 003 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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