13 questions answered in 2 published briefs · Updated 30 Sep 2026
“Exposure is set by the tariff line, not the sector: 666 US lines carry the Section 338 duty of 50 per cent, and 68 are excluded from importation since 29 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Three headings have closed: 9903.05.85, 9903.45.27 and 9903.53.01. The other 23 are in force.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Heading 9903.03.14 holds 513 lines. Its four largest groups are wood (64 lines), furniture (56), electrical goods (39) and paper (31): 190 of 513, or 37%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“CUSMA origin removes the broad 35% measure and the 10% measures; the schedule gives it no effect on the Section 338 duty or on Section 232.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The value of the trade on the Section 338 lists is NOT DISCLOSED here. What would close it: a licensed trade series read against the 666 lines.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The four are cases, not a sample, and a firm can move between conditions on a single proclamation.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Proclamation 11063, titled with respect to motor vehicles, excludes one tariff line from importation: motorcycles over 800 cc. It reaches no cars, trucks or parts.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The published position of both documents is that the exemption reaches the dairy list only.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The duty collected on US imports from Canada was 2.8% of their value in July 2026, against 6.5% for imports from all origins.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“For lines on 9903.03.13 and 9903.03.14, the measures the United States names are a federal quota allocation and a federal Order in Council (SOR/2025-118), both published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“It reaches a Canadian firm whose US revenue is a federal contract rather than a shipment, and it is not a customs matter.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“The reading would change with a new proclamation amending the exclusion annexes or the duty lists, or a revision of U.S. note 51; none was found to 30 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
“Canadian returns trail US ones by 5 to 6 points in mining and manufacturing; refining runs the other way, and infrastructure itself cannot be compared.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States of America
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions North America
No published brief has United States of America as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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Q 024 · Edition 1.0
Q 021 · Edition 1.0
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