4 questions answered in 1 published brief · Updated 1 Oct 2026
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Japan, Republic of Korea, China, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen, United States of America
“Each capacity is quoted on its own basis, and we never add them. The pipeline's nameplate is about 7 mb/d (Saudi Ministry of Energy), a ceiling, not a flow.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Oman, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen
“Any count built on transponder signals cannot log a ship that has switched its transponder off at a berth.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected Yemen
“No party running the escort has said how long it lasts; the US commander's statement of 19 September gave no duration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Saudi Arabia Affected United States of America, Islamic Republic of Iran, Yemen
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions East Asia · Middle East · South Asia
No published brief has Yemen as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
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Q 023 · Edition 1.0
General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.