Strature Briefs · Track record

Our forecasts, scored in public

Every forecast with its sealSealed statements never editedMisses listed first

Scored so far

0 of 103

forecasts in published briefs have resolved and been scored, as of 30 October 2026, from the live register.

Next to resolve: 20 November 2026 (F-0073, F-0074), scored on 4 December 2026.

Our Brier score on yes/no forecasts (lower is better): — until the first yes/no forecast resolves
Baseline: always 50%: 0.250 on every yes/no forecast
Baseline: the base rate: not defined yet for any scored forecast
Sets of alternatives: one multi-category score each, 0 to 2 (lower is better): — until every alternative of a set has resolved; it is compared with a uniform guess over the set’s outcomes

Calibration

When we said 30%, did it happen about 30% of the time?

Shown once 20 forecasts have resolved; 0 have so far. It will compare what we estimated with how often it happened, band by band.

Resolved forecasts, misses first

Each resolved yes/no forecast and each fully resolved set of alternatives with its score, worst first. Superseded estimates are scored too, so a changed view never hides an early miss.

No forecast has resolved yet.

Every forecast and its seal

All 103 forecasts, soonest due first. Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. The seal is the SHA-256 fingerprint of the registered statement file, kept in the register’s ledger, and the date it was sealed; a statement is never edited, and a revision is a new sealed row.

F-0073 · S-001 · Superseded, still scored

A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026

72% · likely · moderate confidence

Sealed 21 Aug 2026Resolves by 20 Nov 2026Scored on 4 Dec 2026

SHA-256 3c056c8bc6f64813cfe833e1b4f7cd8eda1d132653f446a90d451cfeaf47f335
F-0074 · S-001 · Open

A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026

61% · likely · moderate confidence

Sealed 21 Aug 2026Resolves by 20 Nov 2026Scored on 4 Dec 2026

SHA-256 32de7c7ce10803c0bc86e69a410442129b30d25c4dff71a352027c7bacaff498
F-0156 · Q-022 · Open

The duty ends

7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 30 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 d897f091d46f2887e9f6e2dcc024c58c081f0664fb61045be8651cf45b33b72a
F-0157 · Q-022 · Open

Partial relief

23% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 30 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 26eaecfdeae08457674f79c3a65d4c286b54a5509bfb2dacb56e1bd4d785c0f0
F-0158 · Q-022 · Open

The duty lasts, US-bound sales hold

25.2% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 30 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 0e19bbcda83ef9daec54c971204ee8be44ab1633bf7062fdfea47eca407ae2b4
F-0159 · Q-022 · Open

The duty lasts, US-bound sales cut

28% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 30 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 1248e54bf2b8864dadd5a949ff0ee1189c8b3389e2a2f18944d86f7b6f92a4d1
F-0160 · Q-022 · Open

The duty lasts, US-bound sales collapse

15.4% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 30 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 364d5f1e3d9866f1f8c352eff3ad026fb9ada4f57f1ef58c14615dcd7a1a5ecb
F-0161 · Q-022 · Open

The duty lasts, sales not yet measured

1.4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 30 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 8bdaa47706ac9fab85b8a00a191b938cf53550077eb1c68a7107d6670f3950b8
F-0171 · C-006 · Open

The Labrador hydro programme misses its own date for binding agreements

60% · likely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 14 Jan 2027

SHA-256 a355bc958d57d79383541b644e97fc1a7c76beda88b0b95591ae6183188228ef
F-0195 · C-005 · Open

2026 surplus: past the record, without a new US or EU measure

80% · very likely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 14 Feb 2027

SHA-256 97cf16638356bc0bf842f5c429abc41d0878ce0a5b17869c017d393c3c25025d
F-0196 · C-005 · Open

2026 surplus: past the record, with a new US or EU measure

9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 14 Feb 2027

SHA-256 7cd28a93fb12080349de08ccaa70fcb4e827b3687d6097d9948ba5a7c4575263
F-0197 · C-005 · Open

2026 surplus: short of the record, without a new measure

9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 14 Feb 2027

SHA-256 9c49d43d8cf4ced5b56b50fc89e9e317b6460944793a0bef7e5b04c778e6d366
F-0198 · C-005 · Open

2026 surplus: all other outcomes

2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 14 Feb 2027

SHA-256 1ae868e3a0647a65ddb124a25395c456a8573ee8135b7812b18dfde2ffdda0a0
F-0205 · C-005 · Open

Yuan at end-2026: stronger than 6.65

50% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 14 Jan 2027

SHA-256 8661199fd062a4e4bfc7035667434501b2999f12ee00917ff8b6b818f8e2aa9a
F-0206 · C-005 · Open

Yuan at end-2026: held at 6.65-6.75

33% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 14 Jan 2027

SHA-256 d57d6f889a9e6e18c966cf045a1ed6577b51277d53da3c46a90d48c7c43a5296
F-0207 · C-005 · Open

Yuan at end-2026: weaker than 6.85

6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 14 Jan 2027

SHA-256 991836929d9c4f4bdbbaa200e25525f8dd25f8373d18ee3192231e0e8aa9a735
F-0208 · C-005 · Open

Yuan at end-2026: all other outcomes

11% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 14 Jan 2027

SHA-256 d2a238bda29872f5396512774adb09119530d8e5bc47a2641891fa72d1f93b1c
F-0211 · Q-027 · Open

An association track opens

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 4 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 c01eb74907256d09836e877438d54338f254a640ff304ce5db2376faeb99cf39
F-0212 · Q-027 · Open

The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025

8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 4 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 0cdb60d29e0757491c9e5b84222331208061e9974494fc442c48ca67b6ddffc7
F-0213 · Q-027 · Open

A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025

47% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 4 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 18ae6fb44362f2a31b767b437b74dac2ed85b0da823df6de2e0d8e8cd0bdad67
F-0214 · Q-027 · Open

A package (full or partial), but the EU share falls back

18.3% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 4 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 5f4175ee01251a62df91492e104fe953d1e172ecf3a2058dd01be7b56a667a75
F-0215 · Q-027 · Open

The summit delivers none of it

12.9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 4 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 6196cae5d4ce2adef13038f85755564bd829abec15085e51625e9f6f56e3bf32
F-0216 · Q-027 · Open

All other outcomes

1.8% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 4 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2026Scored on 31 Dec 2026

SHA-256 7614e99c48a59474ef457431d200bd1cd3803c5153eed4ab8069c5ed8647c5aa
F-0169 · C-006 · Open

China's tariff relief on Canadian peas, canola meal and seafood lapses at the end of 2026

30% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 1 Jan 2027Scored on 15 Jan 2027

SHA-256 3c31fb04e82398418c66931fdc8c6696a7926cd61395c81a47287bad2d7b95ea
F-0191 · C-005 · Open

Trade clocks: rolled on a short clock

63% · likely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 2388eeaf2d75f4f8ac664e40ea915a17bb01a0f9ba4bfd7f5109779fd2a55fb4
F-0192 · C-005 · Open

Trade clocks: settled for longer

22% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 e0f487f9694226a1a32fab5c0de8f56c54e0ebf7d989ce22afceef495e77d03f
F-0193 · C-005 · Open

Trade clocks: both clocks lapse

8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 cc8ddfb554c290cc8763c44e6aa6dbc94a344871737fdfd39873fc5cd7e63d0f
F-0194 · C-005 · Open

Trade clocks: all other outcomes

7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 050a3150e77f4899a9e315edb0d25c279190d6f787fcfd41c6c5afe5e7093848
F-0209 · C-005 · Open

Risk: The US raises tariffs on Chinese goods generally above the truce level

10% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 5cfdf6046c88becfb6f2ce1d0fc9edda2fe2fc9e9ddbd105f6eeee3e2e7704ab
F-0210 · C-005 · Open

Risk: China halts rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally

4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 f55085ef6be0768b3868726755d4f30ec7b383ae7183397d7e6bfde362f4a4a6
F-0223 · C-005 · Open

The truce past 10 Jan 2027: rolled free

68% · likely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 28eef65d550f9ba4095b5709864dc94b3fe1acb0c67b25abd5451095cc266cde
F-0224 · C-005 · Open

The truce past 10 Jan 2027: rolled at a price

13% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 7e0594b8ee671fa06a36e15bc46863f02d559748ec5b9ef2c80254ff83689754
F-0225 · C-005 · Open

The truce past 10 Jan 2027: lapsed or hit

13% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 bbae26b052392077add02b95d697d8ef712b6698dcdd8b3a5c5cb5cb65d25e52
F-0226 · C-005 · Open

The truce past 10 Jan 2027: all other outcomes

6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 10 Jan 2027Scored on 24 Jan 2027

SHA-256 8fbe57bac20e722bfba0b3c0beb0eeb380d9aed06a193c825304c1f52da24989
F-0220 · C-005 · Open

Two-budget spending 2026: below 2025

82% · very likely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 28 Feb 2027Scored on 14 Mar 2027

SHA-256 29c9661b62271312d22ca49e4ff711ab5ddb4aa180a971e3efd3a017dc6e6456
F-0221 · C-005 · Open

Two-budget spending 2026: at or above 2025

15% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 28 Feb 2027Scored on 14 Mar 2027

SHA-256 747897fdbbcc90c842bcd371e17cae1aa9aa126a5f20883ae413c7c453f718e4
F-0222 · C-005 · Open

Two-budget spending 2026: all other outcomes

3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 28 Feb 2027Scored on 14 Mar 2027

SHA-256 407d397c1a66bc46f3403cae34fc2b83c2c30dcacdecb8d494be1e7518af75b1
F-0230 · C-005 · Open

Work report, March 2027: no turn, no household target

83% · very likely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Mar 2027Scored on 14 Apr 2027

SHA-256 ead53c27f51a564f89f7ceaf3d6993637b88f989c2dbc895336ec9b73b39a79c
F-0231 · C-005 · Open

Work report, March 2027: a turn, target or cash transfer

15% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Mar 2027Scored on 14 Apr 2027

SHA-256 512695f1095fcd57d106e28a86259b28d6b13086a7867c6445e6ab3b26fd6125
F-0232 · C-005 · Open

Work report, March 2027: all other outcomes

2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Mar 2027Scored on 14 Apr 2027

SHA-256 6090ce1ac4373321d0efdd0a42d606fd62c5a05f6608ba1aac9597524a1dedb6
F-0227 · C-005 · Open

Exports Jan-May 2027: still above 2026

86% · very likely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 15 Jun 2027Scored on 29 Jun 2027

SHA-256 aeda54588c9e98722d23f947e5586c5db26c076d83267cb0b4609a374ef13022
F-0228 · C-005 · Open

Exports Jan-May 2027: at or below 2026

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 15 Jun 2027Scored on 29 Jun 2027

SHA-256 d1241011d4b302f8e5339a8d3aead5270c6ab96268a99c909fe86272af663749
F-0229 · C-005 · Open

Exports Jan-May 2027: all other outcomes

2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 15 Jun 2027Scored on 29 Jun 2027

SHA-256 4678c3e1a0dfbbd811693c3cd2e44b2b68fcf7038f65ff2591ac448ec30f9995
F-0217 · C-005 · Open

Household credit Jan-May 2027: still repaying

72% · likely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 25 Jun 2027Scored on 9 Jul 2027

SHA-256 57d047234ac3cb79c28167e62765832f020ba42f530bcdc38147a1d8b118337a
F-0218 · C-005 · Open

Household credit Jan-May 2027: borrowing again

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 25 Jun 2027Scored on 9 Jul 2027

SHA-256 ff2b43bd11fe16a28d5d0f316a4a30482954c98aa87f680bd2ab2a92fae883d1
F-0219 · C-005 · Open

Household credit Jan-May 2027: all other outcomes

3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 25 Jun 2027Scored on 9 Jul 2027

SHA-256 a8bc509f66260e641ca75a28bb731191f417e00ba650a094e5b5608fc7805d03
F-0199 · C-005 · Open

Taiwan and the Philippines: no named drill and no clash

47% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 14 Jul 2027

SHA-256 1a950b6759a5b1c5201d5bb6d357c73876d8152c48698f75a50769a6db85828d
F-0200 · C-005 · Open

Taiwan and the Philippines: a named drill, no clash

28% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 14 Jul 2027

SHA-256 bd1640fcaf28f5dfc038f7b7607c72501f985c1b0cb4256256a18194457e1c74
F-0201 · C-005 · Open

Taiwan and the Philippines: a clash at sea

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 14 Jul 2027

SHA-256 69fb5dbec319782d9b7e9f7ba22f5c14b83b2c26e05fe0fa207e15c81ac4bb8b
F-0202 · C-005 · Open

Taiwan and the Philippines: coercion short of war (a blockade or quarantine of a Taiwan port)

4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 14 Jul 2027

SHA-256 c2bff203e12331848ac66feeca415034597de2c7e7157c1ebd95907ad201a0c2
F-0203 · C-005 · Open

Taiwan and the Philippines: open conflict (an attack)

3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 14 Jul 2027

SHA-256 7ca0c4c58fe39318656adb529dccdca5ec318a974bf488d0ba08e21c960f082d
F-0204 · C-005 · Open

Taiwan and the Philippines: all other outcomes

6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 3 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 14 Jul 2027

SHA-256 4a1718c06b4e3eadb8eb9b7dc6d62db5f451dfedae6736d408a6f2c3fb2d5a2f
F-0233 · C-005 · Open

Taiwan to mid-2027: China blockades, quarantines or attacks

7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 14 Jul 2027

SHA-256 f7600efe8cbe5fd553eb3580b4fc7f63b42391df28831658c0b1b63fae1a3e91
F-0237 · Q-028 · Open

A deal, and a winter week below $3.50

16% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 16 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 30 Jun 2027

SHA-256 32057780fb2481d34b8b4d3167656c123bc29f77a8e57475508e0020065e9b51
F-0238 · Q-028 · Open

A deal, but the first week below $3.50 comes in the summer season

8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 16 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 30 Jun 2027

SHA-256 661fc2ff6042c60f56a8d44cc322546efc42fa5fc8f6698ce72d1dfae3196000
F-0239 · Q-028 · Open

A deal, but no week below $3.50

15.6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 16 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 30 Jun 2027

SHA-256 8014faf4b342063ce5ffcc3d89763121b33bb1aefdcce5591506d82efbafa642
F-0240 · Q-028 · Open

A week below $3.50 without a deal

10.5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 16 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 30 Jun 2027

SHA-256 a9ff320def0291c8cffda35a15fbfe60833ccfdaaa4187b54e424e429b5e67a3
F-0241 · Q-028 · Open

Standoff, no week below $3.50

22.2% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 16 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 30 Jun 2027

SHA-256 01c5d5796f4b13b2a4acc38938502e7f378362b136e67dd035b02eff4812a992
F-0242 · Q-028 · Open

The US strikes Iran, no week below $3.50

26.7% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 16 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 30 Jun 2027

SHA-256 1635c4caf8d8a39a5e933dce8594bbe170492a1a4e4614b7a56753e015aab52e
F-0243 · Q-028 · Open

All other outcomes

1% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 16 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Jun 2027Scored on 30 Jun 2027

SHA-256 40d65ef213f3686d6ca6a3943a5a954575c9176b49d9ea5aa5892f321e070110
F-0162 · C-006 · Open

The zombie agreement: no renewal, no withdrawal - annual reviews roll on with the agreement unchanged and investment held back by the doubt ("Hotel California")

27% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 faedf25a159ba8e26792e5e3213466971b4f560730cc560e12fcaf2ee660a67c
F-0163 · C-006 · Open

Escalation short of withdrawal - tit-for-tat, more bans, 50% auto tariffs from January, and a progressive shrinking of tariff-free trade

51% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 b9886bc188373b701940dfac69fcd88ab41f5d8d5a55e6838daa3950f31c2d4d
F-0164 · C-006 · Open

The agreement is renewed or extended - with limited concessions or tighter terms (stricter auto rules of origin), possibly needing Congress

10% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 c6517f9676c1a8ff1b29380c83488703235e9adf4528d1cba19b2fca93f361e9
F-0165 · C-006 · Open

US withdrawal, severe fragmentation - the agreement ends and the 50% Section 338 rate, or an import ban, is extended to goods now exempt, on top of the Section 232 duties already in force

4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 75e4dc0cabf0bbf05ffb6a76fa193ab1257561ef66562e2efcb5c2c7a4ee1bde
F-0166 · C-006 · Open

All other outcomes (trade agreement)

8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 df5437445de8c76dcfdad6ffb7634ad9d9b9deda350e64e979ac2b8a6342e826
F-0167 · C-006 · Open

The threatened 50% US tariff on Canadian vehicles takes effect

40% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 3f73b54e73d3a6a27395e6d1561f1810fbe565e255f3c7f61b5562dad45b5395
F-0170 · C-006 · Open

Washington opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act

20% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 496ad9445b15ea0338fc0e6c3c7ddfb42f354b1a243f3c64973584520bdf25a5
F-0172 · C-006 · Open

The trade war is sorted out and proves temporary - talks resume and the new tariffs fall

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 f3373dbc25f9c88bb4feb544753f522af20dbd9fee4722aff8a750d17476f034
F-0173 · C-006 · Open

A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029

Label corrected by a note appended to the register; the sealed statement and its estimate are unchanged. Registered label: A lasting break: a later US president tries to repair relations but the old lockstep does not return. Correction note: A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029.

92% · very likely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 dbd868d041348c2f00ac092ba0a4007f40a9067ac02d8882980bfbadbbac2976
F-0175 · C-006 · Open

The Section 338 tariffs are struck down or narrowed in a US court

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 455c8925c5361f938913899ad171461e1c97e51131a5106e3eddf674ccc92aab
F-0176 · C-006 · Open

Fortress North America: Canada accepts aligning its outside tariffs with US policy as the price of restored access

7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 d31687e30dc667bc65475fc41c0cead2d3dd6cc7fac7e2dfa7a28541babfc0a6
F-0177 · C-006 · Open

Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries

40% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 7db58012bdb35705c06cfe2f5939a53defce706890db3cc177555a46cf3d5699
F-0178 · C-006 · Open

US military action against Canada - the 'extreme tail risk' the Prime Minister says Canada has prepared for

2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Scored on 14 Oct 2027

SHA-256 a3a6f502005ecd735b770b7889e3095fe239e27df930e6c3113ad5aef641d3d8
F-0151 · Q-021 · Open

A build with a government term

16% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 28 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Oct 2027Scored on 31 Oct 2027

SHA-256 534afa104dfe86d824af5dee259628119ee31102e1b43be5e456ba288a8d9843
F-0152 · Q-021 · Open

A build on private contracts only

27% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 28 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Oct 2027Scored on 31 Oct 2027

SHA-256 28e02f5a7c69e165d59de43831304eae69e967fbf9426f9b0879ae8862dc1955
F-0153 · Q-021 · Open

Airport terms published, no build

16% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 28 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Oct 2027Scored on 31 Oct 2027

SHA-256 f7ecab92235084e807131f8134388069deaf0610da2b790c1a064d428e1f1070
F-0154 · Q-021 · Open

A fast-track listing only

14% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 28 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Oct 2027Scored on 31 Oct 2027

SHA-256 a6af19ba57c3f1d516e69f829c0e406b25207a689fef5d1c0cdeed03d8bac4a7
F-0155 · Q-021 · Open

A standstill

27% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 28 Sep 2026Resolves by 31 Oct 2027Scored on 31 Oct 2027

SHA-256 4b8bb3b1e5a172b01e507c0d09e3bf654afca62e633c34f31c9e9320c38fdd2d
F-0174 · C-006 · Open

Canada falls into recession

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2027Scored on 14 Jan 2028

SHA-256 3c3af728c0f8a500fcdb124674f39d2a946b2bffc5adf04cbb487886c085a08a
F-0007 · C-002 · Superseded, still scored

Guard-Managed Attrition

15.1% · very unlikely · moderate confidence

Sealed 23 Jul 2026Resolves by 18 Jul 2028

SHA-256 45695c80002179ec64fae89149f504962ae72c56a6325de336ad6f1a652939ee
F-0008 · C-002 · Open

Contested Drift / Paralysis

11.7% · very unlikely · moderate confidence

Sealed 23 Jul 2026Resolves by 18 Jul 2028

SHA-256 eeaf5fc8c395ce9037e65bc7e858e50b672d857f3cd42263a38b9b3c4be59e1a
F-0009 · C-002 · Open

Nuclear Dash under Pressure

11.5% · very unlikely · low-moderate confidence

Sealed 23 Jul 2026Resolves by 18 Jul 2028

SHA-256 9329ed72ae0bfebb9f4bca76e322f485860dd0799208f8944071275ee7faff38
F-0010 · C-002 · Open

Frozen Siege

9.2% · very unlikely · moderate confidence

Sealed 23 Jul 2026Resolves by 18 Jul 2028

SHA-256 88d2cc55e6569ab2b5fa24636c6af0be73f933dbf997ada5419315e650a791ca
F-0011 · C-002 · Open

Regime-Targeting War & Rupture

6.5% · very unlikely · low-moderate confidence

Sealed 23 Jul 2026Resolves by 18 Jul 2028

SHA-256 34b89369458673af8b63f92e6d76a407b85509fba4bb9611d74ce2e97a205708
F-0012 · C-002 · Superseded, still scored

Negotiated Off-ramp

5.3% · very unlikely · low-moderate confidence

Sealed 23 Jul 2026Resolves by 18 Jul 2028

SHA-256 fe91cb70eba1da2efae9c5b798b6a49d074fb54177b722df93324ea007bff0c3
F-0020 · C-002 · Open

Guard-Managed Attrition

13.74% · very unlikely · moderate confidence

Sealed 7 Aug 2026Resolves by 18 Jul 2028

SHA-256 c38560dc3c7e23a952632736d3297e40c558666fa1ae64b98e42c4839426d4cc
F-0021 · C-002 · Open

Negotiated Off-ramp

4.16% · almost no chance (remote) · low-moderate confidence

Sealed 7 Aug 2026Resolves by 18 Jul 2028

SHA-256 b637b0e54b50dc16288c4c00f8a23fa0473522b320ff1fe9f8d33d15f3ff02b1
F-0168 · C-006 · Open

The one oil route to the West Coast fills: Trans Mountain begins apportioning spot nominations

20% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2028Scored on 14 Jan 2029

SHA-256 0d019dcdf376b50b2cbf9ced951e7e28a5bc05e5c040a7674cc181c4a6a6ca23
F-0179 · Q-026 · Open

Alberta allocates nothing further and BC does not repeat its call

9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2028Scored on 31 Jan 2029

SHA-256 dfe1ca81b76cf7b0aefc67403c0b0abb692101120cf30b5c7fd5e9c5a5eee673
F-0180 · Q-026 · Open

Alberta allocates nothing further and BC repeats its call

11% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2028Scored on 31 Jan 2029

SHA-256 0e6b2472bf1623f27c4b64e8a574666e9d14a0cf36e89e04a7079ad1040a8931
F-0181 · Q-026 · Open

Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2028Scored on 31 Jan 2029

SHA-256 b48b8fc56e56fbd7c0d46a97008cd3047ed75eee6491a7fea4bbf737c9fdfba2
F-0182 · Q-026 · Open

Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2028Scored on 31 Jan 2029

SHA-256 15ed722e943f3193a03545a541419d4da8d79d3c329516d4ed344a7494975485
F-0183 · Q-026 · Open

Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call

18% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2028Scored on 31 Jan 2029

SHA-256 139ca46bc4146cd096eed4cc2bc9a2f925f2c8489946c7422e3cb65d01711117
F-0184 · Q-026 · Open

Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2028Scored on 31 Jan 2029

SHA-256 d62fa85c2e126f51817401f05c49f28ce86d33e72396054098094ec190afb38d
F-0235 · C-005 · Open

Hidden local debt by 2029: Beijing declares it fully cleared

40% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Mar 2029Scored on 14 Apr 2029

SHA-256 d125dbc577007a56663784c857d0137acfbe65b61426c7ca8cbe2b18d418441c
F-0234 · C-005 · Open

US tariffs, 2027 to Sep 2029: US raises tariff generally

40% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2029Scored on 14 Oct 2029

SHA-256 d4e0a118af8e174945935adb819668cb5a889f58a46a8bed2e23d6f93b01dfed
F-0185 · Q-025 · Open

No project is listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced

6.5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 26 Jun 2030Scored on 31 Jul 2030

SHA-256 68d1b4fd612729eb29adda05c67871c3b416de1aa9136dc4935f7aab861a78a4
F-0186 · Q-025 · Open

No project is listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced

3.5% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 26 Jun 2030Scored on 31 Jul 2030

SHA-256 80e3e7a8ff7eaaf1872ab1098b3ef51fbdce3489c6cb764f2c944c6b9c3b5a75
F-0187 · Q-025 · Open

1-4 projects are listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced

13.5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 26 Jun 2030Scored on 31 Jul 2030

SHA-256 fd23e3e85cfca346a99d4dd8415419af0d932e8e324cc8d436691808c865fc9e
F-0188 · Q-025 · Open

1-4 projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced

31.5% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 26 Jun 2030Scored on 31 Jul 2030

SHA-256 b5871aac769186336ca1d479e5e982ebf5c1ec0dd4194be406115cd754496053
F-0189 · Q-025 · Open

5 or more projects are listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced

9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 26 Jun 2030Scored on 31 Jul 2030

SHA-256 ff7d73fb906a13c7e2bcf401b8cdd31a68d96a45ce6816dd8a4f58dbf617128f
F-0190 · Q-025 · Open

5 or more projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced

36% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 2 Oct 2026Resolves by 26 Jun 2030Scored on 31 Jul 2030

SHA-256 1e42c2b0c4db2aff23f394bd77ff9c548c40b5330108f2bcc4e1a5143c312138
F-0236 · C-005 · Open

Household share by 2031: two years above 2015-2024 range

35% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2033Scored on 14 Oct 2033

SHA-256 482ffec7546e3acacb0a6aaf91a366aca0daabee77c87a81873c534e2212ea76

The register covers published Strature Briefs only. See how scoring works. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice. Past results, including our track record, do not indicate future results.