Key question KQ-13 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
The trade war is sorted out and proves temporary - talks resume and the new tariffs fall
25% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0172 · Open
It does not happen
75%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). A 50% duty now reaches named Canadian goods whatever their treaty origin.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0172 | 1 Oct 2026 | 25% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
This is the trade war proving temporary: talks resume and the new tariffs fall.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0172
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, the Section 338 tariffs and bans on Canadian goods are lifted in a published US-Canada arrangement.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.