Canada's entry to the market that still takes most of its exported goods is no longer secured by a treaty for any good Washington chooses to name - a list redrawn on its dates and reviewed every year - and its exporters and its own export lender are arranging themselves around that yearly clock, while the capital arriving still buys bonds rather than plant.
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Evidence to 30 September 2026. Supersedes Editions 1.0–1.5.
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Free general research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice, not tailored to any reader, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves; to the fullest extent permitted by law Strature accepts no liability. Full terms in the full brief. Strature and its principal hold no position in, and receive no payment from, any company or fund named in this brief. No issuer, fund, government or project sponsor paid for, commissioned the content of, or reviewed this brief.
Free general research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice, not tailored to any reader, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves; to the fullest extent permitted by law Strature accepts no liability. Full terms in the full brief. Strature and its principal hold no position in, and receive no payment from, any company or fund named in this brief. No issuer, fund, government or project sponsor paid for, commissioned the content of, or reviewed this brief.
Strature, Country Outlook No. 006, Edition 1.6, released 5 Oct 2026, https://strature.net/briefs/c-006/
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Written for this page by Strature from the brief’s free layers and the forecast register; the answer above is quoted as printed.
Five scenarios, one set adding to 100%; each our estimate, scored when it resolves
51% · escalation
Source: Strature forecast register, F-0162 to F-0166, registered 1 Oct 2026; summary sheet.
Since 22 August 2026 a 50% US duty reaches listed Canadian goods whatever their treaty origin, and the agreement now faces a yearly joint review, with no date set.
The brief's headline set asks how US access stands on 30 September 2027, in five scenarios that add to 100%: escalation short of withdrawal 51%, the zombie agreement (no renewal, no withdrawal) 27%, renewal 10%, a severe US withdrawal 4%, all other outcomes 8%. Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
The forecast register’s own words, quoted as registered; a registered forecast is never edited.
F-0163 · Escalation short of withdrawal · 51% · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, the US adds a new Canada-tied measure beyond those in force on 29 Sep 2026 (a new list, ban or the threatened auto tariff) with no withdrawal notice given, and on 30 Sep 2027 the agreement is in force with its term not extended.”
F-0165 · US withdraws · 4% · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, the US gives six months' withdrawal notice and applies a tariff of 50% or more, or an import ban, to goods now exempt.”
Resolves · on the forecast register
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“Unity risk has shown up as a small bond spread, not a break - Quebec's 30-year bonds about 5-6bp over Ontario's, as a pensions publication reported in December 2025; current Quebec and Alberta spreads are still to pull”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Permits came faster for some - Canada Nickel's in about half the usual time - but the fast-track law had listed no project by 21 Sep 2026, and disputes moved to the duty to consult”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Canada is hedging between a volatile Washington and an open door to Europe, without choosing”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“The money arriving in Canada is buying bonds; that it builds new plant is not yet shown, fund by fund”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Canada's sales outside the US rose by more than a quarter in a year and the US share fell to about two-thirds (68.8% over the year to July 2026), but gold explains most of the UK gain”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A 50% duty now reaches named Canadian goods whatever their treaty origin; in 2025, before it took effect, duty was imposed on only about one-eighth of US imports from Canada (CRS)”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Canada's tax offer to new capital is strong on Ottawa's own count, close to the OECD average on the OECD's, and not yet law”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Canada's population is growing at its slowest since the series began in 1946, and about 1.4 million temporary permits expire in 2026, as reported from immigration figures - how many holders leave is not known”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“A US proclamation of April 2026 taxes patented drugs, waived for firms that sign pricing and onshoring deals; generics are spared "at this time", with Commerce to advise within a year.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Smoke has become a trade grievance, and from 2027 the EU carbon border charges Canadian goods - almost all aluminium and steel, about 8% of what Canada sells the EU”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Crude's upside is the one route to Asia, which is filling; 87.4% of crude exports still went to the US in January-June 2026”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Ottawa has named the assets it could lease but not the terms long-term owners need”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Canada invests half the US rate in R&D and rents most of its public cloud from US firms”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Screening of Chinese technology investment now bites - extended national-security reviews have risen sharply - and Washington has threatened 100% tariffs over any Canada-China deal”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Washington has moved Canada's digital rules before, within days; interference around both October votes is alleged, not attributed”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Core defence spending was 1.41% of GDP in 2024 and 2.03% in 2025 by NATO's estimate, against a pledge of 3.5% by 2035.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Washington's position on record calls the Passage an international strait, and ITK's president says Inuit were informed, not consulted, on Arctic defence”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
Ranked by their band on the published materiality lines, then by the number of channels in that band; the lead figure comes from our country reading where one is published. Strature research from public sources, not from this brief.
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
Each estimate is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
| No. | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0162 | The zombie agreement: no renewal, no withdrawal - annual reviews roll on with the agreement unchanged and investment held back by the doubt ("Hotel California") | 27% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0163 | Escalation short of withdrawal - tit-for-tat, more bans, 50% auto tariffs from January, and a progressive shrinking of tariff-free trade | 51% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0164 | The agreement is renewed or extended - with limited concessions or tighter terms (stricter auto rules of origin), possibly needing Congress | 10% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0165 | US withdrawal, severe fragmentation - the agreement ends and the 50% Section 338 rate, or an import ban, is extended to goods now exempt, on top of the Section 232 duties already in force | 4% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0166 | All other outcomes (trade agreement) | 8% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0167 | The threatened 50% US tariff on Canadian vehicles takes effect | 40% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0168 | The one oil route to the West Coast fills: Trans Mountain begins apportioning spot nominations | 20% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2028 | Open |
| F-0169 | China's tariff relief on Canadian peas, canola meal and seafood lapses at the end of 2026 | 30% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 1 Jan 2027 | Open |
| F-0170 | Washington opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act | 20% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0171 | The Labrador hydro programme misses its own date for binding agreements | 60% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0172 | The trade war is sorted out and proves temporary - talks resume and the new tariffs fall | 25% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0173 | A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029 | 92% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0174 | Canada falls into recession | 25% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0175 | The Section 338 tariffs are struck down or narrowed in a US court | 12% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0176 | Fortress North America: Canada accepts aligning its outside tariffs with US policy as the price of restored access | 7% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0177 | Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries | 40% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
| F-0178 | US military action against Canada - the 'extreme tail risk' the Prime Minister says Canada has prepared for | 2% | Issued 1 Oct 2026 | Resolves 30 Sep 2027 | Open |
No fact has been added since the research date.
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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