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Indonesia

Indonesia's exposure runs through sulphur: Gulf producers supplied 74.7% of its 2025 sulphur imports by value (4.02 of 5.26 Mt by weight), an input for nickel processing and fertiliser. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Indonesia?

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  • Region Asia-Pacific · Southeast Asia
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Indonesia in our readings

Indonesia is in 2 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High
  • US tariffs and Canada Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · INDONESIA
Indonesia produced more energy than it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
net exporter2024 · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Coal, 52.6%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Coal, 61.5%2024 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 18.1%
LNG supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.062024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, EIA dataEC band: diversified Built from partner data (mirror): suppliers that publish nothing are missing, so the index is a lower bound.

Where Indonesia sits in value chains

  • Nickel mining 66.7%USGS · 2025 est.
  • Cobalt mining 14.2%USGS · 2025 est.

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); US Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data (API v2, bulk) (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA). Value chains: USGS (Public domain (US federal work); credit the US agency named in the source). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Indonesia · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints High
  • Energy and resources High
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Indonesia on the outlook map

Dates for Indonesia on the risk calendar

Key questions (2)
The other side: 4 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Indonesia

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

  • US tariffs and Canada Medium

    • F-0173 · A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029 · 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006

    US tariffs and Canada

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Indonesia: no Hormuz shipping volume (tonnes or barrels) for it is on file, and the scenario cases need one.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Indonesia makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly Customs sulphur imports by origin, against 4.02 Mt from the Gulf in 2025. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Quarterly Fuel subsidy spending against the US$22.5bn budget. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Nickel processing output and any acid shortages reported by producers. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • End-2026 Reported target for the agreement, signed in Sep 2025, to enter into force (press report). US tariffs and Canada
  • Monthly Canadian potash and wheat exports by destination. US tariffs and Canada
  • 30 Sep 2027 F-0173 resolves: whether the US-Canada break lasts. US tariffs and Canada

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Indonesia?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Indonesia, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Indonesia on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Indonesia, importer through the straits

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Indonesia.

Chokepoints

LPG via Hormuz
24% of imports (2025)
LPG, import dependence
81%
Stock cover (refined fuels stocks, days, as reported)
23 days (5 Mar 2026)

Its household cooking gas is mostly imported, about a quarter of it from the Gulf; 20 to 25% of its crude imports come from the Middle East. 1

Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Crude oil, 2025: Malacca 72% · Cape 54% · Hormuz 15% · Bab el-Mandeb 3.3% (the route model covers 79% of its named imports) modelled
  • LPG, 2025: Panama 69% · Hormuz 24% · Malacca 24% (the route model covers 94% of its named imports) modelled

Dashed underline = low confidence.

importer through the straitsFlows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where Indonesia’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

Show the list

    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Indonesia.

    Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Indonesia

    Indonesia's exposure runs through sulphur: Gulf producers supplied 74.7% of its 2025 sulphur imports by value (4.02 of 5.26 Mt by weight), an input for nickel processing and fertiliser.

    Theme band High

    4.02

    sulphur from Gulf producers (2025)

    31%

    of propane imports from Gulf producers (2025)

    US$22.5bn

    fuel subsidy budget, 2026

    23est.

    of fuel reserves (Mar 2026, press estimate)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Sulphur from the Gulf is hard to replace quickly: 4.02 Mt of the 5.26 Mt imported in 2025.
    • Fuel reserves were short, about 23 days in Mar 2026 (press estimate). Estimate from press or commentary
    • Higher oil prices land on the budget: the 2026 fuel subsidy is US$22.5bn, and a widely used fuel was raised 32% in Jun 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Refined products: Gulf producers supplied 10.2% directly in 2025, and most of the rest came from Singapore, whose refineries lost Gulf crude; our calculation puts Gulf crude inside 62.1% of product imports.

    Opportunities

    • Indonesian urea can fill gaps left by Gulf urea: it supplied US$128.6m (0.29 Mt) of Australia's urea in 2025.
    • Crude is diversified: Saudi Arabia, the only Gulf supplier, provided 17.7% of 2025 crude imports by value.

    Uncertainties

    • Sulphur imports rose from 3.62 Mt in 2024 to 5.26 Mt in 2025; how much more nickel leaching will need is not known.
    • No Gulf share of Indonesia's remittances was found, so the labour lens is not banded.
    • Butane imports were not checked; the LPG share covers propane only.

    What to watch

    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves; a renewed strike would cut Gulf sulphur and LPG together.
    • MonthlyCustoms sulphur imports by origin, against 4.02 Mt from the Gulf in 2025.
    • QuarterlyFuel subsidy spending against the US$22.5bn budget.
    • MonthlyNickel processing output and any acid shortages reported by producers.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    SulphurSupply chain74.7% 2025Share of sulphur imports (HS 2503, by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%
    Crude oilDependence17.7% 2025Share of crude oil imports (HS 270900, by value) from Hormuz Gulf producersLowHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
    Refined productsDependence10.2% 2025Share of refined product imports (HS 2710, by value) from Hormuz Gulf producersLowHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Hormuz Gulf share of 2025 imports (%)
    Share of sulphur imports (HS 2503, by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman): 74.7% (2025)Sulphur74.7Share of propane (LPG, HS 271112) imports from Hormuz Gulf producers: 31% (2025)Propane (LPG, HS 27…31.0Share of crude oil imports (HS 270900, by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers: 17.7% (2025)Crude oil17.7Share of refined product imports (HS 2710, by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers: 10.2% (2025)Refined product10.2

    GulfElsewhere

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): IDN imports, HS 2503 (sulphur) by partner, 2025; UN Comtrade (public API): IDN imports, HS 271112 (propane) by partner, 2025; UN Comtrade (public API): IDN imports, HS 270900 (crude oil) by partner, 2025; UN Comtrade (public API): IDN imports, HS 2710 (petroleum oils other than crude (refined products)) by partner, 2025.

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Sulphur imports from Gulf producers, volume: 4.02 Mt (= 1.7569 + 0.9305 + 0.8941 + 0.3655 + 0.0704 + 0.0003 Mt (UN Comtrade 2025 partner rows) = 4.018)
    • Gulf crude embedded in refined product imports (import share x supplier's Gulf crude share): 62.1% of product imports (= sum over suppliers of (share of product imports by value, UN Comtrade HS 2710 2025 × supplier's Gulf share of crude imports): Singapore 49.47% × 71.76%; Malaysia 26.52% × 53.63%; China 2.28% × 39.7%; Korea 1.47% × 69.9%; India 0.7% × 45%; Gulf direct excl. Oman 10.17% × 100% = 62.14)
    • Scenario: Gulf sulphur to replace if Gulf loadings stop for a quarter: 1 Mt per quarter (= 4.018 Mt / 4 = 1.0045, stored as 1.00 Mt (input precision))
    • Scenario: extra crude and product import bill for one quarter if prices rise 15%: US$1.07bn per quarter (= (9.31 + 19.19) / 4 × 15% = 7.13 × 0.15 = 1.07 (10-20%: 0.71-1.43); = 4.8% of the US$22.5bn subsidy budget)
    • Scenario: Gulf propane to replace if Gulf loadings stop for a quarter: 0.27 Mt per quarter (= 1,083.2 kt / 4 = 0.271 Mt)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 25 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Indonesia

    Canada supplied 40.4% of Indonesia's potash imports in 2025, and Indonesia buys 7.8% of Canada's wheat exports. A trade agreement signed in Sep 2025 is reported to be due to take effect by end-2026.

    Theme band Medium

    40.4%

    Potash imports supplied by Canada (2025)

    7.4%

    Share of Canada's potash exports (2025)

    7.8%

    Share of Canada's wheat exports (2025)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Canada supplied US$0.59bn of a US$1.47bn potash import bill in 2025.
    • Canada's ratification was reported complete; entry into force is only targeted for end-2026 (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
    • Canada's wheat sales to Indonesia, US$628.8m in 2025, compete with China and the US for the same Canadian supply.

    Opportunities

    • Once in force, the agreement is to remove or cut Indonesian duties on about 86% of tariff lines for Canadian goods, and Canadian duties on over 90% for Indonesian goods, as reported. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Indonesia bought US$0.87bn of potash from other origins in 2025: room for Canadian supply.

    Uncertainties

    • The entry-into-force date is a target, not a fixed date. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Indonesia's share of its wheat imports from Canada was not measured.

    What to watch

    • End-2026Reported target for the agreement, signed in Sep 2025, to enter into force (press report).
    • MonthlyCanadian potash and wheat exports by destination.
    • 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: whether the US-Canada break lasts.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Supply from Canada (potash)Dependence40.4% of imports of the good 2025Canada's share of the country's imports of potash fertiliser (HS 3104)MediumHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Indonesia's share of Canada's exports, 2025 (%)
    Indonesia's share of Canada's wheat (HS 1001) exports: 7.8% of Canada's exports of the good (2025)Wheat7.8Indonesia's share of Canada's potash (HS 3104) exports: 7.4% of Canada's exports of the good (2025)Potash7.4

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), Canada's exports by partner, as reported by Canada.

    Briefs and questions

    • C-006 F-0173 US tariffs still above their 2024 level (lasting break), 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Indonesia's potash imports from origins other than Canada: US$0.87bn (= Indonesia's potash imports, all origins - imports from Canada = 1,466.29 - 592.48 = 873.81 US$ million)
    • Canada's 2025 potash sales to the US relative to its sales to Indonesia: 6.26 ratio (= Canada's potash exports to the US / to Indonesia)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Indonesia: what passes the strait

    Its household cooking gas is mostly imported, about a quarter of it from the Gulf; 20 to 25% of its crude imports come from the Middle East.

    Share through the strait

    • LPG (propane, butane) 23.7%

    Route shares are modelled estimates; each figure carries its source. General research, not advice.

    Open on the Hormuz page The briefing

    ISO 3166-1 name: Indonesia (IDN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Indonesia”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/idn/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
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