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Your exposure · Country · Asia-Pacific

Brunei

Brunei is mainly a seller: 5.0 Mt of LNG in 2025 into a market short of Qatari cargoes. Its refinery took 12.6% of its 2025 crude imports from the Gulf. Low band. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Brunei?

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  • Region Asia-Pacific · Southeast Asia
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Brunei in our readings

Brunei is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Low
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Brunei on the outlook map

Dates for Brunei on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Brunei

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Brunei makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly JKM spot LNG. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Brunei?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Brunei, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Brunei on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Brunei.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Brunei

Brunei is mainly a seller: 5.0 Mt of LNG in 2025 into a market short of Qatari cargoes. Its refinery took 12.6% of its 2025 crude imports from the Gulf. Low band.

Theme band Low

12.6%

Gulf share of crude imports by value, 2025 (12.1% by weight)

5

LNG exports, Mt, 2025

0.87

Gulf crude, Mt, 2025

Read the full panel

Risks

  • UAE, Qatari and Iraqi crude, 0.87 Mt in 2025, feeds the refinery; only UAE crude loaded at Fujairah avoids the Strait.
  • Replacement crude is priced off a Brent that averaged US$114 in Sep 2026.
  • Most other crude comes from Malaysia (40.9%) and Russia (13.3%).

Opportunities

  • Qatar and the UAE shipped 85.6 Mt of LNG in 2025, 20.0% of world trade, almost all through the Strait. Brunei already supplies Vietnam, where Qatar held 24% of LNG imports in 2025; Brunei and Malaysia supplied the rest.
  • Spot LNG in Asia (JKM) rose from 15.2 to 19.4 US$/MMBtu between 26 Jun and 14 Jul 2026, raising the value of any spot cargo.

Uncertainties

  • How much Brunei LNG is sold spot rather than on fixed contracts, which decides the gain.
  • Whether the UAE crude loads at Fujairah (outside the Strait) or inside the Gulf.

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could raise Asian LNG prices and cut Gulf crude loadings.
  • MonthlyJKM spot LNG.
  • MonthlyBrent and refinery crude arrivals by origin.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Crude oilEnergy12.6% 2025Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value)LowHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Hormuz Gulf share of Brunei crude imports, 2025 (% of value)
Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 12.6% (2025) (our calculation)Crude*12.6

Gulf

Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 12.6% (= (429.8 + 37.7 + 35.5) / 3991.6 (UAE, Qatar, Iraq; US$m))
  • Crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (weight): 0.87 Mt (= 0.727 + 0.070 + 0.069 (UAE, Qatar, Iraq; Mt))
  • Gulf crude to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 0.22 Mt (= 0.87 × 3 / 12 = 0.2175)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

ISO 3166-1 name: Brunei Darussalam (BRN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Brunei”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/brn/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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