US tariffs and Canada
Follow US tariffs and CanadaAlerts when its risks move. Free.
Canada’s entry to the US market is no longer secured by a treaty for any good Washington names: a 50% US duty, proclaimed on 20 July 2026, applies to goods of Canada named in three lists.
This page answers: What does our register say about US tariffs and Canada, and which countries does it reach?
Using this page
- Read the register’s estimates: each is scored when its question resolves.
- See who is exposed. Pick a region to narrow the list.
- Open Full analyst view for every question, country and source.
- Forecast F-0173 · 92%
- Reach 14 of 36 countries read are High
- This week’s Top 10 No. 2
- Reviewed
What our forecasts say
In the register’s exact words, each with our estimate, scored when it resolves.
On 30 September 2027, will US tariffs on Canadian goods still be above their 2024 level, with neither government having restored the pre-2025 terms?
- KQ-02 By 31 December 2026, does the 50% duty on listed Canadian goods end, ease or last, and if it lasts, what happens to Canada's sales to the US on those lines?
- KQ-03 By 31 December 2026, does an EU-Canada association track open, how many of the six drafted summit deals land, and does the EU's share of Canada's goods exports stay above its 2025 level?
- KQ-04 By 31 October 2027, will a fund we track commit C$1bn or more to a new Canadian build, with or without a government term, and if not, what moves instead?
- KQ-08 On 30 September 2027, where does the North American trade agreement stand: rolling on unchanged, escalating, renewed, abandoned by the US, or something else?
- Dates on the risk calendar
- How our forecasts have scored
Who is exposed
14 of 36 countries read are High; 13 Medium, 9 Low.
Each country’s band is its highest channel band on our published materiality lines. Strature analysis, not from the brief.
- United StatesHighSales to CanadaSupply from Canada (aluminium)Supply from Canada (crude)Supply from Canada (potash)Capital in Canada
- MexicoHighCUSMA partnerUS market rival (parts)US market rival (trucks)
- ChinaHighSupply from Canada (canola)Supply from Canada (wheat)Diversification market
- CanadaHighCapital in CanadaCUSMA partner
- BrazilHighUS market rival (pulp)
- NetherlandsHighCapital in Canada
- BelgiumHighSupply from Canada (potash)
- FranceHighSupply from Canada (iron ore)
Show all 36 countries read
- United KingdomHighCapital in Canada
- ColombiaHighSupply from Canada (wheat)
- EcuadorHighSupply from Canada (wheat)
- NigeriaHighSales to Canada
- PeruHighSupply from Canada (wheat)
- SpainHighSupply from Canada (iron ore)
- GermanyMediumSupply from Canada (iron ore)Supply from Canada (uranium)Capital in CanadaDiversification marketUS market rival (cars)
- JapanMediumSupply from Canada (canola)Supply from Canada (wheat)Capital in CanadaDiversification marketUS market rival (cars)
- South KoreaMediumUS market rival (cars)
- United Arab EmiratesMediumUS market rival
- AlgeriaMediumSupply from Canada (iron ore)
- AustraliaMediumCapital in Canada
- CambodiaMediumSales to Canada
- IndiaMediumSupply from Canada (potash)
- IndonesiaMediumSupply from Canada (potash)
- ItalyMediumSupply from Canada (durum wheat)
- Sri LankaMediumSales to Canada
- SwitzerlandMediumCapital in Canada
- TurkeyMediumSupply from Canada (pulses)
- VietnamLowSales to CanadaUS market rival (plastics)
- BermudaLowCapital in Canada
- Cayman IslandsLowCapital in Canada
- Hong KongLowCapital in Canada
- IrelandLowCapital in Canada
- LuxembourgLowCapital in Canada
- SingaporeLowCapital in Canada
- SwedenLowCapital in Canada
- VenezuelaLowUS market rival (crude)
EU (27) is read as a bloc: High. It is not counted as a country; its members are counted where our readings list them.
Goods and chokepoints it touches
Channels in our readings, with the number of countries read on each:
- US market rival 10
- CUSMA partner 2
- Sales to Canada 11
- Supply from Canada 17
- Diversification market 11
- Capital in Canada 19
What to watch
- 29–30 Oct 2026 The Canada–EU summit: six deals are drafted for it, and none of them touches a tariff.
- 31 Dec 2026 Whether the 50% duty on listed Canadian goods ends, eases or lasts, and what happens to Canada’s sales to the US on those lines.
- 1 Jan 2027 The date from which US auto tariffs are threatened; a tariff of 50% or more on Canadian-made passenger vehicles is one of our registered questions.
- 30 Sep 2027 Where the North American trade agreement stands: rolling on unchanged, escalating, renewed, abandoned by the US, or something else.
Questions firms in this position often review
- Who carries the duty on our listed lines: our margin, or our US customers?
- Which of our goods sit on the named lists, which are redrawn on their dates and reviewed every year?
- If a US court finds the duty exceeds the statute, which party entered our goods and so would receive any refund?
General research, not advice. Request a free pilot
Full analyst view
Every related forecast
By 31 December 2026, does the 50% duty on listed Canadian goods end, ease or last, and if it lasts, what happens to Canada's sales to the US on those lines?
F-0156 · The duty ends · 7%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-022
F-0157 · Partial relief · 23%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-022
F-0158 · The duty lasts, US-bound sales hold · 25.2%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-022
F-0159 · The duty lasts, US-bound sales cut · 28%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-022
F-0160 · The duty lasts, US-bound sales collapse · 15.4%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-022
F-0161 · The duty lasts, sales not yet measured · 1.4%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-022
On 30 September 2027, where does the North American trade agreement stand: rolling on unchanged, escalating, renewed, abandoned by the US, or something else?
F-0162 · The zombie agreement: no renewal, no withdrawal - annual reviews roll on with the agreement unchanged and investment held back by the doubt ("Hotel California") · 27%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006
F-0163 · Escalation short of withdrawal - tit-for-tat, more bans, 50% auto tariffs from January, and a progressive shrinking of tariff-free trade · 51%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006
F-0164 · The agreement is renewed or extended - with limited concessions or tighter terms (stricter auto rules of origin), possibly needing Congress · 10%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006
F-0165 · US withdrawal, severe fragmentation - the agreement ends and the 50% Section 338 rate, or an import ban, is extended to goods now exempt, on top of the Section 232 duties already in force · 4%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006
F-0166 · All other outcomes (trade agreement) · 8%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006
By 30 September 2027, will a US proclamation adding a tariff of 50% or more on Canadian-made passenger vehicles be in force?
By 30 September 2027, will a published US-Canada arrangement lift the Section 338 tariffs and bans on Canadian goods?
By 30 September 2027, will a US court rule that the Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods exceed the statute, in whole or in part, with the ruling not stayed?
By 30 September 2027, will a published US-Canada arrangement commit Canada to match US tariffs on third countries in named sectors?
Will Canada's real GDP fall in two consecutive quarters at any point up to the fourth quarter of 2027, on Statistics Canada's first release?
Over the twelve months to 30 September 2027, will Canada's share of US crude imports fall while Venezuela's rises?
In any month up to 31 December 2028, will Trans Mountain apportion uncommitted (spot) nominations, a sign the line is full?
On 1 January 2027, with no renewal announced, does China's pre-relief tariff apply again to Canadian peas, canola meal or seafood?
By 30 September 2027, will USTR open a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act or its contribution regime?
Will the long-form definitive agreements of the Labrador hydro programme still be unsigned on 31 December 2026?
By 30 September 2027, will US armed forces take a military action on Canadian territory, or in waters Canada claims, without Canada's consent?
By 31 December 2026, does an EU-Canada association track open, how many of the six drafted summit deals land, and does the EU's share of Canada's goods exports stay above its 2025 level?
F-0211 · An association track opens · 12%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027
F-0212 · The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 8%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027
F-0213 · A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 47%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027
F-0214 · A package (full or partial), but the EU share falls back · 18.3%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027
F-0215 · The summit delivers none of it · 12.9%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027
F-0216 · All other outcomes · 1.8%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027
By 31 October 2027, will a fund we track commit C$1bn or more to a new Canadian build, with or without a government term, and if not, what moves instead?
F-0151 · A build with a government term · 16%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · Open · brief Q-021
F-0152 · A build on private contracts only · 27%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · Open · brief Q-021
F-0153 · Airport terms published, no build · 16%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · Open · brief Q-021
F-0154 · A fast-track listing only · 14%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · Open · brief Q-021
F-0155 · A standstill · 27%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · Open · brief Q-021
Every country read
| Country | Band | Channels | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | High | Sales to CanadaSupply from Canada (aluminium)Supply from Canada (crude)Supply from Canada (potash)Capital in Canada | Americas |
| Mexico | High | CUSMA partnerUS market rival (parts)US market rival (trucks)Sales to CanadaDiversification marketUS market rival (cars)US market rival (plastics)US market rival (crude)US market rival (steel) | Americas |
| China | High | Supply from Canada (canola)Supply from Canada (wheat)Diversification marketSupply from Canada (canola meal)US market rival (parts)US market rival (plastics)Sales to CanadaCapital in Canada | Asia-Pacific |
| Canada | High | Capital in CanadaCUSMA partner | Americas |
| Brazil | High | US market rival (pulp)Sales to CanadaSupply from Canada (potash)US market rival (steel) | Americas |
| Netherlands | High | Capital in CanadaSupply from Canada (aluminium)Supply from Canada (uranium)Diversification market | Europe |
| Belgium | High | Supply from Canada (potash)Supply from Canada (iron ore) | Europe |
| France | High | Supply from Canada (iron ore)Capital in Canada | Europe |
| United Kingdom | High | Capital in CanadaDiversification market | Europe |
| Colombia | High | Supply from Canada (wheat)US market rival (crude) | Americas |
| Ecuador | High | Supply from Canada (wheat) | Americas |
| Nigeria | High | Sales to Canada | Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Peru | High | Supply from Canada (wheat) | Americas |
| Spain | High | Supply from Canada (iron ore) | Europe |
| Germany | Medium | Supply from Canada (iron ore)Supply from Canada (uranium)Capital in CanadaDiversification marketUS market rival (cars)Sales to CanadaUS market rival (parts)US market rival (plastics) | Europe |
| Japan | Medium | Supply from Canada (canola)Supply from Canada (wheat)Capital in CanadaDiversification marketUS market rival (cars)Sales to CanadaUS market rival (parts) | Asia-Pacific |
| South Korea | Medium | US market rival (cars)Sales to CanadaCapital in CanadaDiversification marketUS market rival (parts)US market rival (plastics) | Asia-Pacific |
| United Arab Emirates | Medium | US market rivalCapital in Canada | Middle East and North Africa |
| Algeria | Medium | Supply from Canada (iron ore) | Middle East and North Africa |
| Australia | Medium | Capital in CanadaDiversification market | Asia-Pacific |
| Cambodia | Medium | Sales to Canada | Asia-Pacific |
| India | Medium | Supply from Canada (potash)Diversification market | Asia-Pacific |
| Indonesia | Medium | Supply from Canada (potash) | Asia-Pacific |
| Italy | Medium | Supply from Canada (durum wheat) | Europe |
| Sri Lanka | Medium | Sales to Canada | Asia-Pacific |
| Switzerland | Medium | Capital in Canada | Europe |
| Turkey | Medium | Supply from Canada (pulses) | Middle East and North Africa |
| Vietnam | Low | Sales to CanadaUS market rival (plastics) | Asia-Pacific |
| Bermuda | Low | Capital in Canada | Americas |
| Cayman Islands | Low | Capital in Canada | Americas |
| Hong Kong | Low | Capital in CanadaDiversification market | Asia-Pacific |
| Ireland | Low | Capital in Canada | Europe |
| Luxembourg | Low | Capital in Canada | Europe |
| Singapore | Low | Capital in CanadaDiversification market | Asia-Pacific |
| Sweden | Low | Capital in Canada | Europe |
| Venezuela | Low | US market rival (crude) | Americas |
| EU (27) (a bloc; not counted) | High | Diversification marketUS market rival (cars)US market rival (parts) | Europe |
Briefs on this risk
How the countries are read
Each country’s band is its highest channel band, from the published lines below, quoted as published. The EU (27) entry is read as a bloc and is not counted as a country.
Canada (primary) and the United States (the measuring party) are the theme's own group and always included. Any other country is in the theme if its headline metric on at least one channel reaches that channel's inclusion line. A country named in a brief but below every line is dropped unless the brief makes it central: central here means it is a tagged country on a brief question item about this theme AND the subject of a registered forecast or of the item's answer (e.g. Venezuela in F-0177, China in F-0169). A country's theme band is its highest channel band. Each channel carries a sign: risk (the country loses if the US-Canada break deepens), opportunity (it gains), or both.
- US market rival High ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10% with ≥US$2bnThe country's share of US imports of a Canada-key good, 2025. Included from ≥10% of US imports of the good, or ≥5% with ≥US$2bn of US imports of the good
- CUSMA partner High US takes ≥50% of goods exports and the agreement is under review · Medium one of the two · Low neitherShare of the country's goods exports sold to the US, and membership of the agreement under annual joint review. Included from parties to CUSMA (own group: Mexico)
- Sales to Canada High ≥5% · Medium 2–5% · Low <2% but on a money lineGoods exports to Canada as % of the country's total goods exports. Included from ≥2% of goods exports with ≥US$250m a year, or ≥US$10bn a year, or Canada's 2025 imports from the country ≥C$14bn (about US$10bn; StatCan mirror, used where the partner-reported year is older). Flows that are mainly gold (HS 7108 >= 50% of Canada's imports from the country) are set aside, as is a partner-reported flow that Canada's own import record does not match (held out until checked).
- Supply from Canada High ≥50% · Medium 25–50%Share of the country's imports of a key Canadian export good supplied by Canada (potash, canola, canola oil, pulses, wheat, coal, iron ore, uranium, pulp, sawn wood, crustaceans, aluminium). Included from ≥25% of the country's imports of the good with ≥US$250m of imports from Canada
- Diversification market High ≥3% · Medium 1–3% · Low 0.5–1% (growth or brief-named)The country's share of Canada's goods exports, 2025 (with and without gold), and growth on 2024. Included from ≥1% of Canada's goods exports, or ≥0.5% with growth ≥20% on 2024, or a market a released brief measures as a redirect destination with ≥0.5%
- Capital in Canada High ≥C$100bn · Medium ≥C$25bn and <C$100bn · Low ≥C$10bn and <C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placedDirect investment position in Canada (book value, StatCan 36-10-0008), C$bn, 2025; or a public pledge to invest in Canada. Included from ≥C$10bn position, or a state or fund pledge ≥US$10bn named in a brief
General lines
- 10% is the floor wherever the headline is a share of a market or of a supply (share of US imports of a good, share of a country's imports of a good): below it a shift of Canadian trade moves too little of the country's book to be material. 25% (input/dependence channels) and 25% (rival share) are the High lines.
- US$1bn a year at stake is the inclusion line where a channel is measured in money (the general money line, as in the Gulf theme); US$10bn (or C$10bn of investment stock) is used where the measure is a stock or an economy-wide flow, because every G20 economy trades more than US$1bn with Canada.
- 2% of a country's goods exports going to Canada is the inclusion line for the Canada-as-market channel; 5% is High.
- Canada-key goods are the HS headings where Canada supplied at least 10% of US imports in 2025 AND a Canada-specific US measure applies or is threatened (Section 338 lists, Section 232 steel, aluminium, autos and parts, lumber, furniture), or a registered forecast names the good (crude: F-0177). 2025 set: unwrought aluminium 7601, iron and steel ch.72, passenger cars 8703, parts 8708, trucks 8704, sawn wood 4407, wood ch.44, paper ch.48, pulp ch.47, plastics ch.39, crude 2709. Furniture ch.94 (Canada 7.6% of US imports) and refined products 2710 (no Canada-specific measure) fall outside the 10% / measure test and are recorded for context only. Potash 3104, natural gas 2711 and electricity 2716 are recorded (Canada 84-100% of US imports) but carry no Canada-specific US measure; they are shown for context, not banded on the rival channel.
- Gold (HS 7108) is set aside wherever a share of Canada's exports is measured: C-006 finds gold explains most of the non-US gain to the UK. Shares with and without gold are both recorded where available.
- A trade sub-heading (e.g. durum wheat, HS 100119, within wheat, HS 1001) may carry a band on its own figures when it meets the channel's share line and money floor; this applies to every theme. Here: Italy is Medium on durum wheat (32.5% from Canada, US$0.33bn, 2025) although all wheat is 19.7%. The lines themselves are unchanged.
A figure from press or commentary is kept with low confidence and shown as an estimate. It can bring a country in, but on its own it cannot lift a band above Medium.
Sources and licences
No figure on this page yet.
Forecasts: the Strature forecast register, in its exact words, each estimate scored when it resolves. The forecast register
Country readings: Strature research from public sources, kept in our country dossiers; a figure from press or commentary is marked est.
Cite this page Strature, “US tariffs and Canada”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/risks/us-tariffs-canada/, 30 Oct 2026.