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Your exposure · Country · Asia-Pacific

Hong Kong

Hong Kong books C$39.3bn of direct investment in Canada; on an ultimate-investor basis its position is C$11.6bn. It is treated as a conduit centre, so the capital band is capped at Low. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Hong Kong?

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  • Region Asia-Pacific · East Asia
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Hong Kong in our readings

Hong Kong is in 2 of our country readings.

  • US tariffs and Canada Low
  • Chipmaking in Taiwan Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · HONG KONG
Hong Kong imported 99.8% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
99.8%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 62.0%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Gas, 64.1%2024 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 1.0%
Supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
not on file

Value-chain positions: not on file.

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Hong Kong · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Low
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Hong Kong on the outlook map

Dates for Hong Kong on the risk calendar

Key questions (2)
The other side: 4 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Hong Kong

  • US tariffs and Canada Low

    • F-0173 · A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029 · 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006

    US tariffs and Canada

  • Chipmaking in Taiwan Low

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

    Taiwan

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Hong Kong: no Hormuz shipping volume (tonnes or barrels) for it is on file, and the scenario cases need one.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Hong Kong makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly Canada's crude exports by destination, including Trans Mountain cargoes to Asia. US tariffs and Canada
  • Apr 2027 Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor. US tariffs and Canada
  • 30 Sep 2027 F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level. US tariffs and Canada
  • 31 Dec 2028 F-0168 resolves: Trans Mountain apportions spot nominations. US tariffs and Canada
  • Monthly Census and Statistics Department external trade: chip re-exports to China. Chipmaking in Taiwan
  • Annual Trade data by partner: Taiwan's share of chip imports (23.0% in 2025). Chipmaking in Taiwan

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Hong Kong?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Hong Kong, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Hong Kong on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Hong Kong

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Hong Kong.

Chokepoints

Not enough open data
Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • LNG, 2025: Malacca 100% · Cape 55% · Hormuz 45% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz
  • Import dependence
  • Oil stocks in days
  • A headline line

Dashed underline = low confidence.

Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where Hong Kong’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

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    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Hong Kong.

    Chipmaking in Taiwan · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Chipmaking in Taiwan: what is at stake for Hong Kong

    Hong Kong's band is Low. Hong Kong took 23.0% of its US$272.60bn chip imports from Taiwan in 2025 and sent 83.3% of chip exports to China. Hub shares measure trade exposure, not final demand.

    Theme band Low

    23%

    of chip imports from Taiwan, 2025 (hub figure)

    US$62.7bn

    chip imports from Taiwan, 2025 (US$ bn)

    83.3%

    of chip exports to China, 2025

    29%

    of processor imports from Taiwan, 2024 (hub figure, not banded)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Chip exports to China were US$184.50bn in 2024 and US$218.92bn in 2025: an interruption of chip supply from Taiwan would reach this trade.
    • Processors from Taiwan were 29.3% of US$120.83bn imported in 2025. As a re-export hub figure, it is not given a band.
    • Taiwan's share of chip imports rose from 21.3% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2025, of US$272.60bn.
    • Outside estimate, not a Strature forecast: Bloomberg Economics' model, in a 2026 update as reported in the press, puts a blockade of Taiwan at -5.3% of world GDP in its first year and a war at -9.6%. No figure for Hong Kong was found. Estimate from press or commentary

    Opportunities

    • The trade has other sources: China supplied 35.2% of chip imports in 2025 and Singapore 14.6%.
    • Electronics were 63.3% of goods exports in 2024, but almost all are re-exports of goods made elsewhere, so local factories carry little of the loss.

    Uncertainties

    • Hub figures count goods passing through, not goods used in Hong Kong; the loss falls mainly on buyers in China.
    • Trade statistics record the shipping origin: chips made in Taiwan but packaged elsewhere arrive under another origin, so the Taiwan share can understate the link.

    What to watch

    • MonthlyCensus and Statistics Department external trade: chip re-exports to China.
    • AnnualTrade data by partner: Taiwan's share of chip imports (23.0% in 2025).
    • AnnualTrade data by partner: Taiwan's share of processor imports (29.3% in 2025).

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Chip importsDependence23% 2025Share of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) imports from TaiwanLowHigh ≥40% · Medium 25–40% · Low 15–25%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Taiwan's share of Hong Kong's chip imports, 2024 and 2025 (%)
    Share of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) imports from Taiwan: 23% (2025)202523.0Share of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) imports from Taiwan: 21.3% (2024)202421.3

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): HKG imports of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) by partner, 2024; UN Comtrade (public API): HKG imports of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) by partner, 2025.

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 26 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Chipmaking in Taiwan →

    US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Hong Kong

    Hong Kong books C$39.3bn of direct investment in Canada; on an ultimate-investor basis its position is C$11.6bn. It is treated as a conduit centre, so the capital band is capped at Low.

    Theme band Low

    C$39.3bn

    Booked to Hong Kong, immediate-investor basis (2025)

    C$11.6bn

    Controlled from Hong Kong, ultimate-investor basis (2025)

    16.4%

    CK Hutchison's holding in Cenovus Energy (Mar 2026)

    C$1.22bn

    Canada's crude oil exports to Hong Kong (2025)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • On an ultimate-investor basis Hong Kong's position is C$11.6bn, 29.4% of the C$39.3bn booked to it (Statistics Canada): much of what is booked to Hong Kong is controlled elsewhere, and some Hong Kong capital may enter through other places.
    • CK Hutchison holds 16.39% of Cenovus Energy, a Canadian oil producer that sells into the US, through a Luxembourg subsidiary (Cenovus 2026 circular). We make no statement on the value of the holding.
    • If Trans Mountain fills and apportions spot nominations (F-0168), spot crude cargoes from the West Coast, including those to Hong Kong, could be cut back.

    Opportunities

    • Canada's crude exports to Hong Kong rose from C$0.43bn in 2024 to C$1.22bn in 2025, 8.1% of Canada's non-US crude exports.
    • Canada's exports to Hong Kong excluding gold rose 71.2% in 2025, to C$3.06bn, 0.42% of the total.

    Uncertainties

    • The final refinery for crude recorded to Hong Kong is not known.
    • The Cenovus holder is a Luxembourg company, so the holding may be booked to Luxembourg rather than Hong Kong in Statistics Canada's immediate-investor figures.

    What to watch

    • MonthlyCanada's crude exports by destination, including Trans Mountain cargoes to Asia.
    • Apr 2027Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor.
    • 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level.
    • 31 Dec 2028F-0168 resolves: Trans Mountain apportions spot nominations.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Capital in CanadaCapital and financeC$39.3bn 2025Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country)LowHigh ≥C$100bn · Medium ≥C$25bn and <C$100bn · Low ≥C$10bn and <C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placed
    Diversification marketTrade0.42% of Canada's goods exports 2025The country's share of Canada's goods exports excluding goldBelow lineHigh ≥3% · Medium 1–3% · Low 0.5–1% (growth or brief-named)

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Hong Kong and Canada: direct investment positions, 2025 (C$bn)
    Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country): C$39.3bn (2025)Inward, immediate39.3Canadian direct investment position in the country (book value): C$26.6bn (2025)Outward (Canada's)26.6Direct investment position in Canada, ultimate investor basis (book value): C$11.6bn (2025)Inward, ultimate11.6

    Immediate investor: the country where the investment is booked. Ultimate investor: the country of the company that controls it.

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value); Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value).

    Briefs and questions

    • C-006 F-0173 A lasting break: US tariffs still above their 2024 level, 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
    • C-006 F-0168 Trans Mountain apportions spot nominations, 20%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.

    Sources cited

    Our calculations

    • Ultimate-investor position as a share of the immediate-investor position in Canada: 29.4% (= ultimate-investor position / immediate-investor position × 100)
    • Share of all foreign direct investment in Canada booked to the country (immediate basis): 2.5% of FDI in Canada (= immediate-investor position / all FDI in Canada × 100)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →

    ISO 3166-1 name: Hong Kong (HKG). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Hong Kong”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/hkg/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • General research, not advice.
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