In any month up to 31 December 2028, will Trans Mountain apportion uncommitted (spot) nominations, a sign the line is full?
From C-006Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 31 Dec 2028Open
Our standing estimate
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
The one oil route to the West Coast fills: Trans Mountain begins apportioning spot nominations
20% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0168 · Open
It does not happen
80%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). Crude's upside is the one route to Asia, which is filling; 87.4% of crude exports still went to the US in January-June 2026.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0168
1 Oct 2026
20%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Energy and resources
Trans Mountain is Canada's one oil route to the West Coast; once it fills, crude has no new way off the US refinery system.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.