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Risks

Risks around the world, each scored from 1 to 10 for Likelihood and for Impact. The two scores are kept apart. The list is grouped by region, each region sorted by Impact, then Likelihood.

This page answers: Which risks do we follow, and which countries do they reach?

Using this page
  1. Choose a circle on the map, or a risk in the list, to open its card.
  2. Pick a region to see the risks that reach it.
  3. Open Full analyst view for the risks our briefs follow and their sources.
Exhibit R-0 · World risk map

World risks: each circle is one risk

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined. Choose a circle to open the risk.

France: 8 more risks, each in the list.European Union: 17 more risks, each in the list.Global: 14 more risks, each in the list.Hungary: 3 more risks, each in the list.Belgium: 5 more risks, each in the list.Saudi Arabia: 6 more risks, each in the list.Italy: 5 more risks, each in the list.Czech Republic: 4 more risks, each in the list.Norway: 10 more risks, each in the list.Switzerland: 5 more risks, each in the list.Netherlands: 5 more risks, each in the list.Germany: 6 more risks, each in the list.Ireland: 5 more risks, each in the list.Russia: 7 more risks, each in the list.United States: 10 more risks, each in the list.Turkey: 6 more risks, each in the list.United Kingdom: 7 more risks, each in the list.United Arab Emirates: 5 more risks, each in the list.Spain: 5 more risks, each in the list.Poland: 6 more risks, each in the list.Slovakia: 2 more risks, each in the list.Austria: 4 more risks, each in the list.Canada: 7 more risks, each in the list.Finland: 2 more risks, each in the list.Israel: 2 more risks, each in the list.Portugal: 4 more risks, each in the list.Romania: 3 more risks, each in the list.Sweden: 3 more risks, each in the list.Hong Kong: 3 more risks, each in the list.Strait of Hormuz: 2 more risks, each in the list.Egypt: 2 more risks, each in the list.Denmark: 3 more risks, each in the list.The CDC or WHO confirms sustained human-to-human spread of H5N1 bird flu. Impact 9 of 10, Severe. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Impact 8 of 10, High. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. Under way.Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT. Impact 7 of 10, High. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting. Impact 7 of 10, High. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US widens its Section 232 chip tariff from a short list to most chips. Impact 7 of 10, High. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil. Impact 7 of 10, High. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line. Impact 7 of 10, High. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 9 of 10, Severe. Under way.The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High.US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. Under way.The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or decision-making by 25 Oct 2027. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 7 of 10, High.United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade, the budget and the Fed. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 7 of 10, High.China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock release. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper from Chile. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.A G7 bond rout forces a central bank to buy government bonds. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.India, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The Strait of Hormuz shuts again. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.India tightens cooking-gas rationing again. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Japan or China puts new export controls on chip materials or tools aimed at the other. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Washington re-tightens chip export controls on China. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The president removes Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the removal holds. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a row. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Canada claims, without Canada's consent. Impact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low.US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through October 2027. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 9 of 10, Severe. Under way.Russia keeps foreign messaging services blocked nationwide. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 9 of 10, Severe. Under way.A First Nation's court challenge keeps the Pacific Link listing in question. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. Under way.The Diet enacts a consumption-tax cut. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High.Indonesia's shares are moved out of the main emerging-markets benchmark. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 7 of 10, High.Diesel in Santiago reaches 1,800 pesos a litre. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifts the OCR to 3.50% or more. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.Bangladesh leaves the LDC group on 24 Nov 2026 without an extension. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel output. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.South Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.The iron ore price averages below US$80 a tonne for a month. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.China puts a new curb on civilian trade with Japan. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.India and Pakistan strike each other's territory again. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US penalises India again for buying Russian oil. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15%. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US cuts its troops in South Korea or cancels a major allied exercise. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US openly strikes cartel targets inside Mexico without Mexico's consent. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics, machinery or other named goods. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Attacks halt Kazakhstan's main Black Sea oil terminal for a week or more. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Thailand raises its 70% public-debt ceiling. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Thailand's state-managed diesel price reaches 50 baht a litre. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars, machinery or rubber goods. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US restricts foreign access to its AI models. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The DA leaves South Africa's Government of National Unity. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Quebec's new PQ government tables a referendum bill or opens an official sovereignty consultation. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.A local-government financing vehicle misses a public bond payment. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Indonesia lifts its 3% deficit cap or weakens the central bank's protection. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.India caps or halts diesel and jet fuel exports to protect its home market. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.A Japan-China encounter at sea or in the air ends in a collision, gunfire or injury. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.South Korea's chip export boom turns into a fall. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in Taiwan. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low.The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4.85% or more by year end. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High.Japan's oil bill keeps its goods trade in deficit through March 2027. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. Under way.Brazil's farmers take a tenth less fertiliser in 2026. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 7 of 10, High.No UAE state investor closes a C$1bn deal in Canada by October 2027. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.The US cuts off a UAE-licensed bank or exchange house over Iran. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.Allies publicly blame China for a new break-in to critical infrastructure. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.The Hong Kong dollar hits the weak end of its band and the HKMA buys it. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.The Bank of Korea raises its rate to 3.25% by year end. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.Canberra steps in again on fertiliser before the 2027 winter crop. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.India's war-year subsidies push its deficit above the 4.3% target. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.Mexico's state oil sector needs federal money beyond its budget line. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.A Labour-led government takes office after New Zealand's 7 November election. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.El Niño floods leave 100,000 people in Peru without home or livelihood. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.The Philippine central bank raises its policy rate again. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budget by more than a tenth, or lets it lapse. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.Will the KMT win 13 or more of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county posts on 28 Nov?. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25%. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentina's first round on 24 Oct 2027. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Bangladesh has no new IMF programme by the end of June 2027. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Bangladesh sheds 2,000 MW of power at peak again. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.China takes formal counter-measures against Mexico's tariff wall. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.China takes a formal measure against Panama over its canal ports. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.A gas shortfall forces two weeks or more of gas rationing in Colombia. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Colombia loses its last investment-grade credit rating. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The Egyptian pound loses a tenth of its value within three months. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The EU or the US sanctions a refinery in Kazakhstan over Russian oil. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Kazakhstan moves to seize assets over the Kashagan sulphur fine. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US charges or sanctions another sitting Mexican governor or federal official. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 days. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in Yemen. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.A new break in the Camisea pipeline cuts gas to Lima. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fuel. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Heavy fighting resumes on the Thai-Cambodian border. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.Australia orders diesel rationing or allocation. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.The US raises its Section 301 duty on Brazil or strips its exemptions. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Chile's central bank raises its policy rate above 4.5%. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.A rise in subsidised fuel prices sets off protests in many Indonesian cities. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Kazakhstan's uranium output for 2026 falls short of its target. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Malaysia raises its subsidised RON95 petrol price to RM2.20 a litre or more. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.New Zealand moves to phase 4 of its fuel plan: pump limits and priority users. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Singapore's chip-led boom turns into a technical recession. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Argentina's China swap line is ended, cut or called. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low.A quake or other disaster halts chip output in Kumamoto for 30 days or more. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low.Greece's next general election gives no party a majority. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 7 of 10, High.US forces join a lethal strike on an armed group inside Colombia. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.Informal miners block Peru's national roads as their permit register ends. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.A court or regulator halts oil drilling off the Amazon mouth. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.A deadly or ship-disabling clash at Scarborough Shoal. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.A chip shortage idles a Mexican car or electronics plant for two weeks. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.A strike halts Gran Rosario grain shipments for three days or more. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.A deadly clash on the DMZ or the sea border. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Singapore's bunker fuel sales fall more than 10% over three months. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.Indonesia sends forces on an operation under its new "Badr" pact. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low.A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a week or more. Impact 2 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Circle with a number: more risks at a crowded place

The 304 risks on this map are listed on this page.

Source304 risks. Strature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 25 Oct 2026 to 29 Oct 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-0 · WORLD · strature.net

World risks

Worldwide (21)

  1. The CDC or WHO confirms sustained human-to-human spread of H5N1 bird flu

    United States · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 9/10 Severe steady
  2. Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting

    Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iran · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 7/10 High steady
  3. A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply

    Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 9/10 Severe rising
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Under way
Show all 21 worldwide risks
  1. The WTO adopts no reform of dispute settlement or decision-making by 25 Oct 2027

    Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 7/10 High steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  2. IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock release

    Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  3. A G7 bond rout forces a central bank to buy government bonds

    United States, United Kingdom, France, Japan · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  4. India, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year

    India, Indonesia, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  5. World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150

    Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  6. World trade in AI-enabling goods falls year on year

    United States, Taiwan, South Korea · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  7. The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index

    United States · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  8. Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026

    India, Pakistan, Bangladesh · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 8/10 High steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  9. A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market

    United States, China, India · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  10. A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea

    Qatar, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  11. The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions

    United States, European Union, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  12. The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies

    United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  13. A state-linked cyber attack cuts power, water or a port for a day or more

    United States, China, Russia, Iran · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  14. Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy levels in 2027

    Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  15. Russian forces confront a NATO boarding of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Baltic

    Russia, Estonia, Finland, Denmark · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  16. A helium shortfall forces chip output cuts in Taiwan or South Korea

    Taiwan, South Korea · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  17. Two or more undersea cables or pipes cut in one Baltic or North Sea incident

    Finland, Estonia, Sweden · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  18. Ransomware halts a major port, hospital network or pipeline for three days or more

    Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady

Americas (57)

  1. The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows

    Canada, Mexico, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 8/10 High rising
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  2. US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027

    United States · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 8/10 High steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Under way
  3. United States: the midterms and a year of policy whiplash on trade, the budget and the Fed

    United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 7/10 High steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
Show all 57 risks in Americas
  1. The US puts a tariff of 10% or more on refined copper from Chile

    Chile, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  2. Washington re-tightens chip export controls on China

    United States, China · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  3. The president removes Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the removal holds

    United States · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  4. The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil

    United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low falling
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  5. US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a row

    United States · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  6. US armed forces act on Canadian territory or in waters Canada claims, without Canada's consent

    Canada · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 2/10 Low steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  7. US duties on Canadian softwood lumber stay above 30% through October 2027

    Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 9/10 Severe steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Under way
  8. A First Nation's court challenge keeps the Pacific Link listing in question

    Canada · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 8/10 High rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Under way
  9. Diesel in Santiago reaches 1,800 pesos a litre

    Chile · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  10. El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean

    Colombia · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  11. Congress turns Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting into law by 31 Mar 2027

    Brazil · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  12. El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again

    Panama, United States · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  13. Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break

    Brazil · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  14. The US openly strikes cartel targets inside Mexico without Mexico's consent

    Mexico, United States · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  15. The US restricts foreign access to its AI models

    United States, China · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  16. A US debt-limit standoff with Treasury's cash projected to run out within three months

    United States · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  17. US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 per MMBtu or more in a winter month

    United States, Canada · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  18. The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.5%

    United States · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  19. Quebec's new PQ government tables a referendum bill or opens an official sovereignty consultation

    Canada · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  20. The US Treasury market seizes and the Fed buys bonds to restore it

    United States · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  21. US private-credit funds keep paying out less than investors ask for

    United States · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 9/10 Severe steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Under way
  22. Brazil's farmers take a tenth less fertiliser in 2026

    Brazil · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 7/10 High rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  23. Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027

    Peru · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  24. The Fed raises rates again by March 2027

    United States · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  25. Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track

    Argentina · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  26. Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada

    Canada, Venezuela, United States · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  27. Mexico's state oil sector needs federal money beyond its budget line

    Mexico · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  28. El Niño floods leave 100,000 people in Peru without home or livelihood

    Peru · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  29. A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentina's first round on 24 Oct 2027

    Argentina · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  30. Canada's real GDP falls for two quarters in a row by the fourth quarter of 2027

    Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  31. USTR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act

    Canada, United States · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  32. China takes a formal measure against Panama over its canal ports

    Panama, China · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  33. A gas shortfall forces two weeks or more of gas rationing in Colombia

    Colombia · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  34. Colombia loses its last investment-grade credit rating

    Colombia · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  35. The US charges or sanctions another sitting Mexican governor or federal official

    Mexico, United States · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  36. A new break in the Camisea pipeline cuts gas to Lima

    Peru · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  37. US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December

    United States · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  38. A court halts the planned aluminium smelter at Inola, Oklahoma

    United States, United Arab Emirates · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  39. The US raises its Section 301 duty on Brazil or strips its exemptions

    Brazil, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low falling
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  40. Chile's central bank raises its policy rate above 4.5%

    Chile · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  41. Argentina's China swap line is ended, cut or called

    Argentina · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 2/10 Low falling
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  42. Canada and Mercosur miss their end-2026 target for a trade deal

    Canada, Brazil · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  43. The Labrador hydro agreements are still unsigned on 31 December 2026

    Canada · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  44. US forces join a lethal strike on an armed group inside Colombia

    Colombia, United States · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  45. Informal miners block Peru's national roads as their permit register ends

    Peru · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  46. The Canada-ASEAN trade deal misses its November 2026 target

    Canada, Singapore · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  47. A court or regulator halts oil drilling off the Amazon mouth

    Brazil · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  48. The Canada-EU summit delivers none of its drafted deals by 31 Dec 2026

    Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  49. China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027

    Canada, China · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  50. A chip shortage idles a Mexican car or electronics plant for two weeks

    Mexico · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  51. A strike halts Gran Rosario grain shipments for three days or more

    Argentina · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  52. The US lifts its waiver and puts Graham Act duties on Russian goods, potash included

    United States, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low falling
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  53. The US imposes the first labour-mechanism remedy on a Mexican facility

    United States, Mexico · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  54. A strike cuts output at a large Chilean copper mine for a week or more

    Chile · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 2/10 Low steady

Middle East and North Africa (27)

  1. The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal

    Yemen, Egypt · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 8/10 High rising
    • Impact 8/10 High steady
    • Under way
  2. Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT

    Iran · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 7/10 High steady
  3. The Strait of Hormuz shuts again

    Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
Show all 27 risks in Middle East and North Africa
  1. Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$70

    Saudi Arabia · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  2. The war budget forces Riyadh to shelve or shrink a giga-project

    Saudi Arabia · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  3. US sanctions hit one of Türkiye's ten largest banks over Iran

    Turkey · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  4. No UAE state investor closes a C$1bn deal in Canada by October 2027

    United Arab Emirates, Canada · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  5. The US cuts off a UAE-licensed bank or exchange house over Iran

    United Arab Emirates · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  6. Free of OPEC, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter

    United Arab Emirates · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  7. Iraqi crude through Ceyhan falls back below 0.4 mb/d for 30 days

    Turkey, Iraq · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  8. Another Arab or African state cuts diplomatic ties with the UAE

    United Arab Emirates · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  9. An Iranian strike halts a UAE port, plant or airport

    United Arab Emirates · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  10. The Egyptian pound loses a tenth of its value within three months

    Egypt · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  11. Fire from Lebanon into Israel resumes on seven or more days in a month

    Israel, Lebanon · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  12. Türkiye's central bank has to raise its policy rate again within 12 months

    Turkey · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  13. Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia

    Saudi Arabia, United States · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  14. The PKK disarmament process breaks down

    Turkey · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  15. The Canada-UAE trade deal, concluded in July, is not signed by mid-2027

    United Arab Emirates, Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  16. A Houthi attack hits Egypt or Egyptian forces

    Egypt · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  17. Egypt cuts gas to its fertiliser plants for two weeks

    Egypt · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  18. Canada and Saudi Arabia miss their early-2027 target for an investment treaty

    Saudi Arabia, Canada · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  19. A Houthi strike cuts power or water to a Saudi city for two days

    Saudi Arabia · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  20. A Turkish-flagged merchant ship is hit in the Black Sea

    Turkey · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  21. A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of Crete

    Turkey, Greece · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  22. A cyberattack halts a UAE port, airport or energy site for a day

    United Arab Emirates · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  23. An Iran-linked attack stops Israeli chip fabs for a week

    Israel · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  24. US export limits hold back a Saudi AI data centre

    Saudi Arabia, United States · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady

Asia-Pacific (66)

  1. The US widens its Section 232 chip tariff from a short list to most chips

    Taiwan, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 7/10 High steady
  2. The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil

    China, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low falling
    • Impact 7/10 High steady
  3. China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence

    China · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
Show all 66 risks in Asia-Pacific
  1. India tightens cooking-gas rationing again

    India · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  2. Japan or China puts new export controls on chip materials or tools aimed at the other

    Japan, China · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  3. China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade

    Taiwan, China · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  4. The Diet enacts a consumption-tax cut

    Japan · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 8/10 High rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  5. Indonesia's shares are moved out of the main emerging-markets benchmark

    Indonesia · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 7/10 High rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  6. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifts the OCR to 3.50% or more

    New Zealand · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  7. Bangladesh leaves the LDC group on 24 Nov 2026 without an extension

    Bangladesh · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  8. A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel output

    Indonesia · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  9. The iron ore price averages below US$80 a tonne for a month

    Australia, China · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  10. China puts a new curb on civilian trade with Japan

    China, Japan · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  11. India and Pakistan strike each other's territory again

    India, Pakistan · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  12. The US penalises India again for buying Russian oil

    India, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated falling
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  13. The US raises its tariff on South Korean cars above 15%

    South Korea, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  14. The US cuts its troops in South Korea or cancels a major allied exercise

    South Korea, United States · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  15. The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics, machinery or other named goods

    Malaysia, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  16. Thailand raises its 70% public-debt ceiling

    Thailand · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  17. Thailand's state-managed diesel price reaches 50 baht a litre

    Thailand · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  18. The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars, machinery or rubber goods

    Thailand, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  19. The US adds a second Section 301 tariff on most Vietnamese goods

    Vietnam · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  20. A local-government financing vehicle misses a public bond payment

    China · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  21. Indonesia lifts its 3% deficit cap or weakens the central bank's protection

    Indonesia · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  22. India caps or halts diesel and jet fuel exports to protect its home market

    India · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  23. A Japan-China encounter at sea or in the air ends in a collision, gunfire or injury

    Japan, China · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  24. South Korea's chip export boom turns into a fall

    South Korea · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  25. A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in Taiwan

    Taiwan · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  26. Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more

    Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 2/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  27. The Reserve Bank of Australia lifts the cash rate to 4.85% or more by year end

    Australia · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 8/10 High rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  28. Japan's oil bill keeps its goods trade in deficit through March 2027

    Japan · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 8/10 High steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Under way
  29. Allies publicly blame China for a new break-in to critical infrastructure

    China, United States, Canada · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  30. The Hong Kong dollar hits the weak end of its band and the HKMA buys it

    Hong Kong · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  31. The Bank of Korea raises its rate to 3.25% by year end

    South Korea · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  32. Canberra steps in again on fertiliser before the 2027 winter crop

    Australia · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  33. India's war-year subsidies push its deficit above the 4.3% target

    India · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  34. A Labour-led government takes office after New Zealand's 7 November election

    New Zealand · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  35. The Philippine central bank raises its policy rate again

    Philippines · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  36. Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budget by more than a tenth, or lets it lapse

    Taiwan · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  37. Will the KMT win 13 or more of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county posts on 28 Nov?

    Taiwan · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  38. Bangladesh has no new IMF programme by the end of June 2027

    Bangladesh · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  39. Bangladesh sheds 2,000 MW of power at peak again

    Bangladesh · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  40. China takes formal counter-measures against Mexico's tariff wall

    China, Mexico · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  41. Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 days

    Pakistan · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  42. Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in Yemen

    Pakistan · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  43. The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fuel

    Philippines · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  44. Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season

    Philippines · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  45. Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs

    Singapore · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  46. Heavy fighting resumes on the Thai-Cambodian border

    Thailand, Cambodia · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  47. Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season

    Vietnam · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  48. Australia orders diesel rationing or allocation

    Australia · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  49. The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar

    China, United States · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  50. Hong Kong's AI-led export boom turns into a quarterly fall

    Hong Kong · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  51. The US puts new sanctions on officials over Hong Kong

    Hong Kong, United States · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  52. A rise in subsidised fuel prices sets off protests in many Indonesian cities

    Indonesia · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  53. Malaysia raises its subsidised RON95 petrol price to RM2.20 a litre or more

    Malaysia · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  54. New Zealand moves to phase 4 of its fuel plan: pump limits and priority users

    New Zealand · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  55. Singapore's chip-led boom turns into a technical recession

    Singapore · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  56. A quake or other disaster halts chip output in Kumamoto for 30 days or more

    Japan · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 2/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  57. Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities

    Vietnam · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  58. A deadly or ship-disabling clash at Scarborough Shoal

    China, Philippines · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  59. Australia sends a warship to the Strait of Hormuz

    Australia · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  60. Hong Kong's airport has to ration jet fuel

    Hong Kong · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  61. A deadly clash on the DMZ or the sea border

    South Korea, North Korea · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  62. Singapore's bunker fuel sales fall more than 10% over three months

    Singapore · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  63. Indonesia sends forces on an operation under its new "Badr" pact

    Indonesia · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 2/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady

Europe (116)

  1. Europe's right turn: the RN in France, the AfD in Germany, Reform UK

    France, Germany, United Kingdom · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 7/10 High steady
  2. The EU's ban on Russian LNG under long-term contracts bites from 1 January 2027

    European Union, Russia · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 7/10 High steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  3. Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project

    Hungary · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
Show all 116 risks in Europe
  1. A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at its renewal date

    European Union, Hungary, Slovakia · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  2. The EU switches on its ban on maritime services for Russian oil

    European Union, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  3. The EU puts the principal of Russia's immobilised reserves to use

    Belgium, European Union · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 6/10 Elevated steady
  4. Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG

    Belgium · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 8/10 High steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Under way
  5. Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027

    Italy · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 8/10 High rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Under way
  6. The ECB raises rates a third time on energy inflation

    European Union · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 7/10 High rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  7. The Czech central bank lifts its main rate to 4.25% or higher

    Czech Republic · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  8. The EU moves to delay its carbon price on fuel and heating a second time

    European Union · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  9. EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget

    European Union · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  10. No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027

    European Union, Ukraine · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  11. The Lecornu government falls before France adopts its 2027 budget

    France · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  12. Norway's parliament adopts new ethics rules for the oil fund

    Norway · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  13. The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines

    Switzerland · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  14. China bars exports of chips made in China by a foreign-controlled chipmaker

    Netherlands, China · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  15. Merz's coalition breaks or faces a confidence vote

    Germany · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  16. The US raises its tariff on EU cars above the 15% deal rate

    Germany, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  17. The US opens a trade case against EU digital rules

    European Union, United States · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  18. The US lifts its general tariff on EU goods above 15%

    European Union, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  19. The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15%

    Ireland · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  20. The EU-China hybrid cap fails and the EU puts duties on Chinese hybrids

    European Union, China · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low falling
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  21. A court ruling halts the EU-Mercosur trade deal

    European Union · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low falling
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  22. Norway's oil fund falls below NOK 20,000bn at a quarter end

    Norway · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  23. Norway curbs power exports to Europe

    Norway · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  24. Cross-border bank consolidation in Germany: a foreign bank takes control of a large German bank

    Germany, Italy · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 8/10 High rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  25. The Bank of England raises rates on energy inflation

    United Kingdom · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 8/10 High rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  26. Will Swiss voters approve the looser War Material Act on 29 Nov 2026?

    Switzerland · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 7/10 High steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  27. A German chemical or steel plant closes or cuts deep as gas costs climb

    Germany · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  28. Spain has no invested Prime Minister by 31 January 2027 after the 29 November snap election

    Spain · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  29. UK household energy price cap jumps 10% or more in January or April 2027

    United Kingdom · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  30. Italy votes before late October 2027, the first time under the new majority-bonus law

    Italy · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  31. President's vetoes block Poland's defence money or 2027 budget revenue

    Poland · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  32. Slovakia's opposition wins a seat majority at the 2027 election

    Slovakia · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  33. Landlocked Austria draws again on its emergency oil stocks

    Austria · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  34. Germany's pension reform misses its new spring target

    Germany · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  35. Spain's fuel tax relief runs out in the gap between governments

    Spain · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  36. Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania

    Bulgaria, Romania · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  37. The 30-year gilt yield closes above 6%

    United Kingdom · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  38. Jetten's minority cabinet falls before October 2027

    Netherlands · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  39. Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more

    Norway · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  40. De Wever's five-party government falls over the budget

    Belgium · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  41. Swiss parliament blocks or sends back the EU treaty package

    Switzerland · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  42. Prague caps household power or gas prices again

    Czech Republic · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  43. The EU puts off its carbon border bill, or a big partner hits back

    European Union · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  44. A second EU country rations diesel or jet fuel

    European Union · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  45. The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock

    European Union · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  46. A partner takes the EU's new steel quotas to the WTO, or hits back

    European Union · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  47. A rating agency cuts Finland's credit rating again

    Finland · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  48. A rating agency cuts Hungary below investment grade

    Hungary · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  49. Italy's 2026 deficit misses 3% and the EU procedure stays open

    Italy · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  50. The krone gives back its 2026 gains against the euro

    Norway · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  51. Poland lays anti-personnel mines on its eastern border

    Poland · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  52. Half a million Portuguese customers lose power at once

    Portugal · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  53. Brussels cuts Portugal's final recovery-fund payment

    Portugal · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  54. Romania's new government falls within a year

    Romania · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  55. A rating agency cuts Romania below investment grade

    Romania · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  56. Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis

    Romania · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  57. Druzhba oil to Hungary and Slovakia stops again for two weeks or more

    Hungary, Slovakia, Russia · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  58. No Prime Minister, and Sweden is forced into an extra election

    Sweden · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  59. Austria's savings path breaks: the EU steps up its deficit procedure, or the coalition splits

    Austria · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  60. Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in winter 2026-27

    Switzerland · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  61. Brussels freezes a whole Czech EU funding programme over the conflict of interest

    Czech Republic · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  62. Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy

    European Union, France · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  63. Finland cuts power to consumers for lack of electricity

    Finland · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  64. France's National Assembly votes down CETA, the EU-Canada trade deal

    France · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  65. Drought cuts France's first wheat export outlook for 2027-28 by a fifth

    France · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  66. The UK cuts or delays a defence or Ukraine pledge for lack of money

    United Kingdom · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  67. The US raises its tariff on UK goods above 10% or ends the UK's zero drug rate

    United Kingdom · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  68. The Irish coalition loses a Dáil confidence vote

    Ireland · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  69. Sabotage halts Dutch trains or a Rotterdam terminal for a day

    Netherlands · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  70. Russia breaks the Barents Sea fisheries deal with Norway

    Norway, Russia · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low falling
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  71. Norway's gas flows to Europe fall by a third for a week

    Norway · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  72. Norway's Labour minority government falls

    Norway · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  73. Russia defies Norwegian authority on Svalbard

    Norway · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  74. Poland bars Chinese-made cars beyond its military sites

    Poland · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  75. The EU finds Poland off track on its deficit, or Warsaw cuts its 2027 defence budget

    Poland · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  76. Portugal's minority government falls

    Portugal · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  77. A major agency cuts Slovakia's credit rating

    Slovakia · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  78. Sweden Democrats take seats in the cabinet

    Sweden · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low falling
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  79. Greece's next general election gives no party a majority

    Greece · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 7/10 High steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  80. A cyberattack halts a French food, health or transport service for a day or more

    France · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  81. River heat forces three or more French reactors to stop or cut output at once in summer 2027

    France · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  82. England's drought carries into 2027 with a ban on non-essential water use

    United Kingdom · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  83. Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz

    Greece · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 6/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  84. Gulf crude to the Netherlands stops for a month again

    Netherlands · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  85. Russia detains or fires on an EU ship in reprisal for tanker seizures

    Belgium, Russia · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  86. Russia puts another Western company's Russian business under state control

    Switzerland, France · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  87. A parts shortage stops a Czech car line for two weeks

    Czech Republic · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  88. State sabotage kills someone or shuts a German airport or rail line for a day

    Germany · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  89. Another mass crossing into Ceuta or Melilla

    Spain · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  90. Spain and Italy bring back border checks on each other

    Spain, Italy · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated falling
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  91. A month-long stop in EU copper smelting or refining

    European Union · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  92. Fuel and cost-of-living protests force a state of emergency or a fuel blockade in France

    France · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  93. French forces sent to guard Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil port at Yanbu are hit

    France, Saudi Arabia · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  94. UK forces are drawn into combat with the Houthis

    United Kingdom · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  95. Irish public-sector strikes return before April 2027

    Ireland · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  96. Russia blocks or takes control of an EU bank's Russian unit

    Italy, Russia · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  97. State sabotage shuts a Polish route or site that supports Ukraine for two days

    Poland · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  98. Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month

    Poland · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  99. Sweden's Riksdag throws out the government's 2027 budget

    Sweden · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  100. The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over Greenland

    Denmark, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  101. Denmark's economy shrinks two quarters in a row

    Denmark · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  102. Spain's next government caps rents nationwide or curbs foreign home buyers

    Spain · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  103. Israeli chip supply to Ireland stops for a month

    Ireland · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  104. Irish troops deploy without a UN mandate

    Ireland · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low rising
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  105. An Italian warship is hit near Bab el-Mandeb

    Italy, Yemen · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  106. Israel or the US hits back at the Dutch settlement-goods ban with a trade or legal measure

    Netherlands · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  107. Norway blames a state for damage to a subsea cable or pipeline

    Norway · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  108. Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airport

    Portugal · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  109. The US singles out Austria over its neutrality

    Austria · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 2/10 Low steady
    • Impact 3/10 Low steady
  110. A new Russian spy case in Vienna touches the UN, IAEA or OSCE

    Austria · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 2/10 Low steady
  111. Drug-gang violence halts work at the port of Antwerp for a day

    Belgium · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 2/10 Low steady
  112. Drone reports shut a Danish airport again

    Denmark · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 2/10 Low steady
  113. Drones shut a major Italian airport for three hours

    Italy · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 2/10 Low steady

Russia and Eurasia (13)

  1. Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line

    Russia, Ukraine · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 7/10 High steady
  2. Russia keeps foreign messaging services blocked nationwide

    Russia · Technology and cyber

    • Likelihood 9/10 Severe steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Under way
  3. The US or EU sanctions a Chinese terminal or buyer for Arctic LNG 2 cargoes

    Russia, China · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
Show all 13 risks in Russia and Eurasia
  1. Attacks halt Kazakhstan's main Black Sea oil terminal for a week or more

    Kazakhstan, Russia · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  2. Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a price

    Russia, China, Mongolia · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  3. Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank

    Russia, Ukraine · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  4. Russia restarts a reactor at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

    Russia, Ukraine · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  5. The EU or the US sanctions a refinery in Kazakhstan over Russian oil

    Kazakhstan · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  6. Kazakhstan moves to seize assets over the Kashagan sulphur fine

    Kazakhstan · Regulation and compliance

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  7. Russia raises taxes again, beyond its 2027 budget package, to cover a record deficit

    Russia · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated rising
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  8. Ukrainian drones shut a main Russian oil port for a week or more

    Russia, Ukraine · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  9. Kazakhstan's uranium output for 2026 falls short of its target

    Kazakhstan · Supply chains and chokepoints

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  10. Russia halts enriched uranium shipments to the US before the US ban takes full effect

    Russia, United States · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 3/10 Low steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady

Sub-Saharan Africa (4)

  1. South Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre

    South Africa · Energy and resources

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  2. The DA leaves South Africa's Government of National Unity

    South Africa · Geopolitics and conflict

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 5/10 Elevated steady
  3. The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25%

    South Africa · Finance and markets

    • Likelihood 5/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady
  4. The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list

    South Africa, United States · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    • Likelihood 4/10 Elevated steady
    • Impact 4/10 Elevated steady

From our briefs

The risks our briefs follow, with the related questions in our forecast register.

Top risks now

  1. 1A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026Middle East and North Africa39 of 56 countries read are High; 13 MediumNote, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.
  2. 2US tariffs on Canadian goods stay above their 2024 level and the pre-2025 terms are not restored, to 30 Sep 2027Americas14 of 36 countries read are High; 13 Medium
  3. 3Iran in July 2028: strikes go on, the regime breaks, or a step to the bombMiddle East and North Africa3 of 6 registered outcomes39 of 56 countries read are High; 13 Medium
  4. 4The 50% US duty on listed Canadian goods lasts to 31 Dec 2026Americas4 of 6 registered outcomes14 of 36 countries read are High; 13 Medium
  5. 5No fund we track commits C$1bn to a new Canadian build by 31 Oct 2027Americas3 of 5 registered outcomes8 of 13 countries read are High; 4 Medium
  6. 6A Canadian recession by the end of 2027AmericasReach provisional: no country readings yet

How this list is ranked

Strature GPS home · How the Top 10 is ranked

Event risks

Show the risks that reach a region

  • US tariffs and Canada

    Canada’s entry to the US market is no longer secured by a treaty for any good Washington names: a 50% US duty, proclaimed on 20 July 2026, applies to goods of Canada named in three lists.

  • Canada’s capital projects

    Large investors pledged capital to Canada, but for 6 of 7 pledges our brief found no placement to 27 September 2026; projects with a published or signed government term went ahead 6 times in 15, against 12 in 58 without.

    • Leading outcome F-0152 · 27%
    • Reach 8 of 13 countries read are High

  • Taiwan

    Taiwan supplies about a fifth of most large importers’ chips, and the Taiwan Strait carries about a fifth of the world’s sea trade; China’s armed forces have staged no named large exercise around Taiwan since December 2025.

    • Leading outcome F-0199 · 47%
    • Reach 8 of 20 countries read are High

  • US–China trade

    China’s goods surplus reached a record US$1.18 trillion in 2025 on the revised customs basis; our brief finds China’s export-control leverage suspended, not removed, to 9–10 November 2026; the US–China tariff truce runs to 10 January 2027.

Strait closures

Scenario cases

  • Strait of Hormuz closed, restricted or unsafe: a scenario

    In a 30-day closure some oil never arrives at all: of the economies shown, China loses the most, 310-317 million barrels.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb closed together: a scenario

    Closing Bab el-Mandeb as well adds delay, not loss: Saudi crude sent round Africa arrives 27-36 days late.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Red Sea: half of traffic avoids Bab el-Mandeb for 90 days

    Going round the Cape for 90 days loses nothing on lanes with a cited Cape route: 55 million barrels of the economies shown arrive late, most of it the EU's.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Taiwan Strait closed to transit for 7 days

    No oil flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait, so no volumes are shown; ships routed east of Taiwan add up to 3 days.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

  • Strait of Malacca closed for 14 days

    Closing the Strait of Malacca causes delay, not loss: ships go by Lombok and Makassar, about 3 days longer.

    Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.

All scenario cases

Full analyst view

How the Top 10 is ranked

How the Top 10 is ranked

Each week we rank the risks on this list by one stated rule: the probability in our forecast register, times how many countries the risk reaches.

  1. Probability. Each risk is tied to one question in our forecast register. Where the question has several alternatives, we add the probabilities of the alternatives that describe the harm, and we name them. The register's figures are used unchanged.
  2. Reach. We count the countries our published country readings place in the High band for that risk, and add half of those in the Medium band. Low counts zero. The EU (27) entry is not counted as a country; its member countries are counted where our readings list them.
  3. Rank. We multiply the two and sort from highest. Ties go to the higher probability, then to the earlier resolution date.

Where we have no country readings for a risk yet, reach is the number of countries its forecast names, each counted as Medium, and the item says “reach provisional”. Only open forecasts that resolve within the next 24 months are ranked. A risk is shown only when its probability times its reach comes to 1 or more, so the list can hold fewer than ten.

Our research team drafts the list and the Principal signs it off each week. We do not move items by hand. When we leave an item out, we say so under the list.

What the ranking is not. Reach counts only the countries we have read, so a risk we have read for fewer countries can rank lower than it should. The ranking does not measure how severe a risk is for any one company or country. Each probability is our estimate, scored when its question resolves. General research, not advice.

  • Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.
  • Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
  • Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability.
  • General research, not advice.

How the Top 10 is ranked