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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, any daily value of the Federal Reserve's nominal broad dollar index, published in its H.10 release, reads 109.2643 or lower (10% or more below the 121.4048 of 16 Oct 2026).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
6Elevated steady this month
Breadth8
Depth5
Duration7
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. 28 Oct 2026: FOMC kept its range at 3.75-4% (10-2; two dissents for a rise) [12]
  2. Broad index 121.4048 on 16 Oct 2026; CAD 1.4157, CNY 6.6861, JPY 158.00, MXN 18.5026 per USD [1]
  3. One-year average 119.71; low 117.44 on 29 Jan 2026; high 122.00 on 14 Oct 2026; 120.67 on 16 Oct 2025 [2]
  4. White House committee on Governor Cook set up 7 Oct 2026; position statement by 2 Nov, hearing 5 Nov, post-hearing statement by 10 Nov; no report date [8]
  5. Canada exported C$77.9bn in August 2026; 30.2% to countries other than the US; CAD up 1.1 US cents on July [5]
  6. FOMC raised its range to 3.75-4% on 16 Sep 2026, 12-0, to support 'a timelier return' to 2% [6]

Why it matters

The Fed's broad dollar index stood at 121.40 on 16 Oct 2026, near the top of its one-year range. A 10% slide, to about 109.26 or lower, has not happened in any 12-month window since the one that began in spring 2020. Doubts over Fed independence push; Fed rate rises brake. A slide would lift the Canadian dollar and cut the Canadian-dollar value of exports, about 70% of which go to the US.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: doubts over Fed independence (committee of 7 Oct). Brakes: the Fed raised rates on 16 Sep and held on 28 Oct [6][12]; the index is at its one-year high; the Supreme Court set procedures before any removal.

Why Impact 6 Key price: the broad index; threshold case a 10% fall.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Fall from 129.11 on 3 Feb 2025 to 117.44 on 29 Jan 2026, 9.0% in a year [2] (29 Jan 2026)
  • 10%-in-12-months falls began in 2006-07, 2008-10 and 2020 (from 126.13 on 23 Mar 2020); last at or below 109.3 on 27 Apr 2018 [3] (31 Dec 2024)
  • Supreme Court, 5-4, kept Governor Cook in office on 29 Jun 2026 [4] (29 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index: Elevated impact · unlikely1 · Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The US dollar slides 10% on the Fed's broad index: Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, any daily value of the Federal Reserve's nominal broad dollar index, published in its H.10 release, reads 109.2643 or lower (10% or more below the 121.4048 of 16 Oct 2026).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaA stronger Canadian dollar cuts exporters' receipts in Canadian dollars; in August exports rose 2.5% in CAD and 4.0% in USD [5].
  2. World trade and pricesDollar prices of oil, metals and grain would rise (not sized).
  3. Asia's currenciesAsian currencies would rise together; a yuan stronger than 6.65 per dollar at end-2026 is the leading outcome, Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026) [9].
  4. MarketsForeign holders of US assets lose in their own currencies (not sized).

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Who is exposed

Countries
Canada, Mexico, Japan, China, European Union
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Agriculture and food, Energy and pipelines, Mining and metals

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Range holds

    The Fed keeps rates high and the index stays between 115 and 125.

  2. S2

    Slow slide

    The index repeats 2025, falling about 9% in a year without breaching 109.26.

  3. S3

    Confidence break

    A removal of Governor Cook that holds, or rate cuts against high inflation, set off a fall past 109.26.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No cut at the 8-9 Dec 2026 FOMC
S2A close below 117.44, the January 2026 low
S3The committee's report after 10 Nov and a removal letter

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

50%F-0205 · Yuan at end-2026: stronger than 6.65
Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it Register yuan question F-0205 to F-0208 resolves on H.10. Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026);

Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it

  • F-020633%Forecasts: Yuan at end-2026: held at 6.65-6.75

    Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief C-005

  • F-02076%Forecasts: Yuan at end-2026: weaker than 6.85

    Strature forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief C-005

  • F-020811%Forecasts: Yuan at end-2026: all other outcomes

    Register yuan question F-0205 to F-0208 resolves on H.10. Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026)

    Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief C-005

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 2 Nov 2026 Governor Cook's pre-hearing position statement due [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 5 Nov 2026 White House committee hearing on Governor Cook [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 10 Nov 2026 Governor Cook's post-hearing written statement due [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 9 Dec 2026 FOMC decision with projections; Bank of Canada decision [7] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 31 Dec 2026 Register yuan question F-0205 to F-0208 resolves on H.10. Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026) [9] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  6. 27 Jan 2027 Bank of Canada rate decision [10] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  7. 27 Jan 2027 FOMC decision (26-27 Jan, tentative until confirmed) [7] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

A weaker dollar cuts the cost of US-dollar debt for emerging economies and lowers Canadian import costs. For Canadian buyers of US machinery and for Canadian travellers, a stronger loonie is a gain.

Connected in Strature

Sources

11 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (weekly). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS), 2025-2026. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS), 2006-2024. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED · 31 Dec 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Court prevents Trump from firing Fed governor. SCOTUSblog · 29 Jun 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Canadian international merchandise trade, August 2026. Statistics Canada · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Meeting calendars and information. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Establishment of a Committee of Inquiry to Investigate Allegations of False Statements by Lisa DeNell Cook. The White House · 7 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. C-005 key question KQ-24 and register rows F-0205 to F-0208. Strature · 2 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Key interest rate. Bank of Canada · 2026-10 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks