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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

The Fed raises rates again by March 2027

The test The FOMC raises the federal funds target range above 3.75-4% at any meeting, scheduled or not, held between 27 Oct 2026 and 17 Mar 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 29 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. 28 Oct 2026: FOMC kept the range at 3.75-4%, 10-2; Cook and Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point rise; statement: 'The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate' [19]
  2. Chair Warsh, 28 Oct press conference: 'We've made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require' [20]
  3. Warsh, 16 Oct: does not prejudge meetings; October and December decision points (reported) [9]
  4. CPI 3.7% y/y and 0.6% m/m in September; energy 20.4%; gasoline 34.2%; core 2.6% [7]
  5. Waller: I anticipate additional hikes, if the data continue to come in as expected; not necessarily at consecutive meetings [6]
  6. Most participants: another increase likely appropriate by year end [4]
Show 3 earlier changes
  1. Target range increases since 25 Oct 2023: one, effective 17 Sep 2026 (+25 bp to 3.75-4.00%); the previous increase was effective 27 Jul 2023 [17]
  2. FOMC raised the range to 3.75-4% on 16 Sep 2026, 12-0 [1]
  3. End-2026 dots: 12 at 4.125%, 4 at 4.375%, 2 at 3.875%; median 4.1% [3]

Why it matters

The Fed kept its range at 3.75-4% on 28 Oct 2026, after raising it on 16 Sep; two policymakers, Governor Cook among them, dissented, preferring a quarter-point rise. In September most of its policymakers saw at least one more rise as likely by year end. Inflation is 3.7%, led by energy. Three decision dates remain in the window, the first on 9 Dec with new projections. One more quarter point is the base case of the Fed's own projections; its own effect is modest.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: 16 of 18 dots above the midpoint [3]; most participants saw another increase as likely appropriate by year end [4]; Waller anticipates additional hikes [6]; two dissents for a hike on 28 Oct [19]. Brakes: the 28 Oct hold [19]; gasoline easing [13]. Three decision dates left, the first with projections [8].

Why Impact 4 Key price: the funds rate midpoint; threshold case one quarter point (3.875% to 4.125%, a 6.5% move).

The other facts on file (1)
  • July 2026: range held at 3.50-3.75%, 9-3; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented for a hike [2] (29 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Fed raises rates again by March 2027: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Fed raises rates again by March 2027: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

The FOMC raises the federal funds target range above 3.75-4% at any meeting, scheduled or not, held between 27 Oct 2026 and 17 Mar 2027.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaThe Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% on 28 Oct 2026 [18]; a wider gap with a rising US rate may weaken the Canadian dollar (Strature's view); Canadian CPI 3.1% [16].
  2. US borrowingShort rates rise; 2-year 4.67% on 28 Oct [12], 30-year mortgage 7.24% on 29 Oct [15].
  3. Energy and inflationThe hike answers the energy shock.
  4. BondsPolicy rates feed the 10-year.

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
United States, Canada
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    One more, in December

    The Fed holds on 28 Oct and hikes on 9 Dec with new projections.

  2. S2

    Pause and wait

    Oil and gasoline ease, core stays near 2.6% and the Fed holds through March.

  3. S3

    Two or more

    A new energy shock or rising expectations bring two rises among 9 Dec, 27 Jan and 17 Mar.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1October CPI on 10 Nov at or above 3.7%
S2A lower median path in the 9 Dec projections
S3A hike on 9 Dec with a higher median path in the new projections

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 10 Nov 2026 US CPI for October [7] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 9 Dec 2026 FOMC decision with projections (8-9 Dec) [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 27 Jan 2027 FOMC decision (26-27 Jan) [8] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 17 Mar 2027 FOMC decision with projections (16-17 Mar); window ends [8] Tentative · Window

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · UNITED STATES · strature.net

The other side

A timely hike that holds inflation expectations may let rates fall sooner later. Savers and money-market holders earn more. Canadian exporters selling into the US gain if the Canadian dollar weakens (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

17 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 29 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Minutes of the FOMC, 15-16 September 2026. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 7 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy (Jefferson). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 1 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections (Waller). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Consumer Price Index, September 2026. US Bureau of Labor Statistics · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Meeting calendars and information. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Warsh won't prejudge rest of 2026, names October and December as decision points. investingLive · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026. US Department of the Treasury · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  11. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. US Energy Information Administration · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Freddie Mac · 29 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 29 Oct 2026
  13. Consumer Price Index, September 2026. Statistics Canada · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  14. Open Market Operations (FOMC target range changes). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  15. Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½%. Bank of Canada · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  16. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  17. Transcript of Chairman Warsh's Press Conference Opening Statement, October 28, 2026 (preliminary). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 29 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks