US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027
The test Every EIA weekly US regular retail gasoline price dated 26 Oct 2026 to 28 Jun 2027 is US$3.50 a gallon or higher.
Under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Regular US$4.269 on 26 Oct 2026, the 34th week in a row at or above US$3.50 [2]
- Last print below US$3.50: US$3.015 on 2 Mar 2026; US$3.502 on 9 Mar; peak US$4.500 on 11 May [2]
- Regular US$4.284 on 19 Oct 2026, US$1.265 above a year earlier; diesel US$6.276 [1]
- Canadian gasoline +27.8% y/y in September; CPI 3.1% [8]
- Strature forecast F-0239: 15.6% (16 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0241: 22.2% (16 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0242: 26.7% (16 Oct 2026), the register outcomes with no weekly print below US$3.50 to 28 Jun 2027 [6]
- Hormuz flows 10.9 mb/d in September; stocks 509 mb below end-February [9]
Show 4 earlier changes
- US gasoline CPI +34.2% y/y in September [7]
- EIA regular gasoline: Q4 2026 US$4.15, Q1 2027 US$3.71, Q2 2027 US$3.76, 2027 US$3.56; Q4 2027 US$3.24 [4]
- EIA monthly forecast, lowest month before July 2027: February 2027 at US$3.651, 15.1 cents above US$3.50 [13]
- EIA Brent US$105 in Q4 2026, US$14 above the September view [3]
Why it matters
US regular gasoline has printed at or above US$3.50 every week since 9 Mar 2026, 33 weeks in a row to 19 Oct, when it was US$4.284. The EIA's own path stays above the line into mid-2027. A US-Iran deal that reopens Hormuz is the main way out.
Why Likelihood 8 Under way: the condition holds today, so 8; not 9-10 because the US and Iran are in talks the President called productive. Pushes: the EIA path never reaches US$3.50; Brent US$105 in Q4; stocks 509 mb lower. Brakes: a deal; the Gulf Coast 28.4 cents above the line.
Why Impact 6 Key price: US regular gasoline; threshold case US$3.50, about 16% above a year earlier.
Where it sits
How it spreads
Every EIA weekly US regular retail gasoline price dated 26 Oct 2026 to 28 Jun 2027 is US$3.50 a gallon or higher.
Under way nowChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaCanadian pump prices move with the same crude; Canadian energy CPI up 19.0% in September [8].
- US households and inflationFuel keeps CPI high; lower-income households strained.
- The FedHigh fuel keeps the case for another hike alive.
- Freight and farmsDiesel at US$6.276 on 19 Oct [1] matters more for trucking and farming.
Goods 2
- Gasoline
- Crude oil
Sectors 3
- Ports and logistics
- Agriculture and food
- Energy and pipelines
Straits 1
Countries 3
- United States primary
- Canada
- Iran
Who is exposed
- Countries
- United States, Canada, Iran
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food, Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Gasoline, Crude oil
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
High plateau
No deal; the blockade stands; gasoline follows the EIA's quarterly path of US$3.71-4.15, never below US$3.50.
- S2
Deal and slide
A US-Iran text reopens the strait; crude falls and a winter print dips below US$3.50.
- S3
Strike and spike
US strikes on Iran push crude and gasoline back towards May's US$4.500.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The EIA's 10 Nov outlook keeps every month above US$3.50 |
| S2 | A signed text before February 2027 |
| S3 | A US strike announced |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0237: 16% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027
Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it
F-02388%Forecasts: A deal, but the first week below $3.50 comes in the summer season
The card links it as a related forecast.
Strature forecast F-0238: 8% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028
F-023915.6%Forecasts: A deal, but no week below $3.50
Strature forecast F-0239: 15.6% (16 Oct 2026);
Strature forecast F-0239: 15.6% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028
F-024010.5%Forecasts: A week below $3.50 without a deal
The card links it as a related forecast.
Strature forecast F-0240: 10.5% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028
F-024122.2%Forecasts: Standoff, no week below $3.50
Strature forecast F-0241: 22.2% (16 Oct 2026);
Strature forecast F-0241: 22.2% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028
F-024226.7%Forecasts: The US strikes Iran, no week below $3.50
Strature forecast F-0242: 26.7% (16 Oct 2026), the register outcomes with no weekly print below US$3.50 to 28 Jun 2027
Strature forecast F-0242: 26.7% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028
F-02431%Forecasts: All other outcomes
The card links it as a related forecast.
Strature forecast F-0243: 1% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections [10] Declared · Outside event
- 10 Nov 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook; US CPI for October [3] [7] Declared · Outside event
- Feb 2027 The EIA's lowest forecast month [5] Tentative · Window
- 28 Jun 2027 Last print in the Q-028 window [5] Declared · Strature date
- 15 Jul 2027 Q-028 publication cut-off [5] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Canada's oil producers earn more while crude stays dear (not sized). High pump prices speed fuel saving and switching. A deal would bring prices down quickly, and Gulf Coast prices are already near the line [1].
Connected in Strature
- US gasoline below $3.50 by June 2027: possible, but not on the official path
- Crude oil
- Strait of Hormuz
- United States
- Canada
- Iran
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: Crude through the strait sets the pump price [9].
- The Fed raises rates again by March 2027 Drives: Energy inflation keeps the case for another hike [11].
- A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market Shares a channel: Refined fuel prices [1].
Sources
12 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. US Energy Information Administration · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices, weekly. US Energy Information Administration · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
- Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026. US Energy Information Administration · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, Table 2: Energy Prices. US Energy Information Administration · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Q-028: US gasoline below $3.50 by June 2027 (key question KQ-36). Strature · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Forecast register, F-0237 to F-0243. Strature · 16 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026. US Bureau of Labor Statistics · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026. Statistics Canada · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Trump rules out new Iran attack before US midterm elections. France 24 (AFP) · 9 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Minutes of the FOMC, 15-16 September 2026. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 7 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- USA dossier row USA-gulf-war-hormuz-rd-usa-18 (EIA STEO October 2026 monthly, MGRARUS). Strature Library (EIA data) · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks