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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints · Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)

The Strait of Hormuz shuts again

The test Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz average below 10 mb/d (half the 2025 average of 20 mb/d) for at least 30 consecutive days between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, as measured by the IEA or by a named ship tracker.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
6Elevated steady this month
Breadth9
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute8
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 6 to 4; Impact 8 to 6.

Why it matters

The strait is open but unsafe. Oil is moving again, 10.9 mb/d in September [1] and about 82% of pre-war, offshore transfers included, by a WSJ estimate that gCaptain relayed on 22 October [12], but ships are still hit weekly, the US blockade of Iran stands, and reported strike plans after the 3 November midterms could shut it again. A second closure would fall on a world with 509 mb less oil in stock than at the end of February [1].

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: war not ended, weekly attacks, reported post-midterm strike plans, and September flows of 10.9 mb/d only 0.9 above the line. Brakes: flows rose through September and October, Iran states a path to reopening, and the EIA base case is recovery under convoys. No dated fact moved the score by a point: flat.

Why Impact 6 Mean of 9, 3, 5, 8 = 6.25. Canada hit directly on one channel only (fuel prices into CPI). A full re-closure, like the first, is the worse case and would score near 8.

The other facts on file (32)
  • Total oil flows through the strait rose by 3.7 mb/d to 10.9 mb/d in September. Bypass exports rose by 970 kb/d to 5.6 mb/d. Gulf crude exports reached 13.9 mb/d, "over 75% of pre-war levels". [1]
  • On 22 October the WSJ, as reported by gCaptain, put Hormuz flows at about 82% of pre-war levels, offshore transfers included. [12]
  • UKMTO counted 254 transits in the seven days to 14 October (125 out, 129 in [43]), about 70% below pre-war levels; it says some US-reported transits are unverified.
  • It recorded 12 attacks in the period to 16 October, 10 of them in the strait [12], and warned that its count is short because most ships attacked do not report to it. [43]
  • US Central Command claimed 400 ships and 100m barrels of oil through the strait in the same week, a figure UKMTO's count does not match. [43]
  • The container ship GFS Pride sank after an attack on 13 October. [12]
  • The JMIC keeps the strait's threat level at SEVERE. [12]
  • Bloomberg named the South Korean shipowner Sinokor as the largest carrier of crude through the strait in September. [14]
  • The Revolutionary Guard says the strait is unsafe for ships that do not coordinate with Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority. [43]
  • It claimed seven vessels struck on 21-22 October; none was independently confirmed, and UKMTO issued no matching reports. The US President said: "They are even making up fake hits, mines, and everything else". [12]
  • Strature's T-003 found that Iran's tool on the water is routing and charging ships, not outright denial. [22]
  • On 9 October the US President said "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" and that the blockade "will remain in full force". [15]
  • On 18 October Iran's foreign minister said the strait would reopen on the sixth day, and talks begin on the seventh, if the US met Iran's conditions, including lifting the blockade. [19]
  • On 22 October France 24's press review relayed a New York Times report, citing unnamed officials, of plans for fresh US and Israeli strikes after the midterms. [16]
  • On 25 October Israeli media, as relayed by France 24, reported a clash between the Prime Minister and the army chief over orders on Iran two days before Israel's election; the Prime Minister denies it. [44]
  • Iran's crude supply fell to 1.94 mb/d in September from 2.16 mb/d in August. [1]
  • The IMF now sees Iran's GDP falling 7.6% in 2026. [7]
  • Saudi Arabia's energy minister said on 6 October that the East-West line was back up to 5.8 mb/d of its 7 mb/d capacity, after drone strikes in early September. [20]
  • On 24 October the Houthis claimed attacks on an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and East-West pumping stations; the coalition said it destroyed two ballistic missiles fired toward Yanbu and Taif. Saudi authorities did not confirm the hits. [17]
  • An attack on Riyadh airport on 10 October, later claimed by the Houthis, killed 12 people, Khaleej Times reported. [38]
  • Brent futures were about US$107/bbl and North Sea Dated about US$134 when the IEA wrote on 14 October; Dated averaged US$116.89 in September. [1]
  • The EIA's daily Brent spot series peaked at US$135.51 on 2 October and stood at US$123.10 on 27 October, the latest value in its release of 28 October. [5]
  • The monthly average was US$70.89 in February 2026 and US$114.16 in September. [42]
  • Wholesale diesel hit all-time highs of about US$220/bbl in Europe and the US. [1]
  • Freight from the Gulf to Asia passed US$37/bbl, more than five times pre-war (IEA, as reported). [12]
  • A US Gulf Coast to China tanker lease touched a record US$79.6m in October, against under US$8m on average in the five years before the conflict. [13]
  • Brokers told the Financial Times in early October that additional war-risk premiums for tankers ran at 6-10% of hull value, against about 0.25% before the war (Marsh), as Insurance Business reported on 15 October. [45]
  • The strait carried 19% of world LNG trade in 2025. [2]
  • Argus's northeast Asia spot LNG price reached US$29.97/MMBtu on 19 October, an almost four-year high [36]; East Asian LNG futures averaged US$10.73 in the week to 21 January, before the war (EIA, Bloomberg data). [46]
  • Qatar lost two Ras Laffan trains to Iranian missiles in March, 12.8 Mtpa or about 17% of its export capacity; repairs could take three to five years. [11]
  • On 22 October QatarEnergy signed to buy up to 4 Mtpa of US LNG from Cheniere through 2054, from 2031. [11] [10]
  • The IMF's October outlook has 2026 GDP at -15.6% for Qatar, -16.7% for Kuwait, -16.0% for Iraq, -3.9% for the UAE and -3.3% for Saudi Arabia, while Oman grows 4.1%. [7]

Where it sits

Strait of Hormuz11. The Strait of Hormuz shuts again: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleStrait of HormuzAFGHANISTANUAEIRANIRAQKUWAITOMANSAUDI ARABIATHE GULFGULF OF OMAN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of Hormuz11. The Strait of Hormuz shuts again: Elevated impact · possibleStrait of HormuzUAEIRANKUWAITOMANTHE GULF0300 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz average below 10 mb/d (half the 2025 average of 20 mb/d) for at least 30 consecutive days between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, as measured by the IEA or by a named ship tracker.

Not under way

Channels 6 on the card

  1. CanadaCanada does not import Gulf oil in volume, but it pays world prices.
    More

    In September, gasoline was up 27.8% and "fuel oil and other fuels" 57.8% year on year; headline CPI was 3.1% [8]. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% on 28 Oct 2026 and decides next on 9 Dec 2026 [48]. Canada is also an oil and gas exporter (see The other side).

  2. Energy pricesWorld oil supply already averages 100.7 mb/d in 2026, down 5.8 mb/d on 2025 [1].
    More

    A second closure would hit thinner stocks: global inventories were 509 mb below end-February [1]. The EIA's base case, Brent at US$105 in 4Q26 and US$84 in 2027, assumes "a combination of convoys through the Strait of Hormuz and workarounds" [3]; a closure breaks that assumption.

  3. Asia's import bill and stocksStrature's scenario library shows, in a 90-day closure and its recovery, 117-123m barrels of Japan's oil and 160-163m of South Korea's not arriving [23].
    More

    Among the economies shown, China has the most oil that does not arrive in a 30-day closure: 310-317m barrels over the closure and a 90-day slow recovery [23]. Illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast.

  4. Gas and powerLNG has no pipeline route round the strait [23].
    More

    Qatar's lost trains stay lost even after reopening [11], so a new closure would add to a winter gap, not start one.

  5. Food and fertiliserGulf economies supplied 24.8% of world nitrogenous fertiliser exports (Strature T-003, WTO data) [22].
    More

    Farms that buy Gulf urea would pay more at planting time.

  6. Shipping and insuranceFreight and war-risk costs are already multiples of pre-war [12][13][45].
    More

    A re-closure would strand tankers and car carriers again.

Goods 9

Sectors 5

  • Energy and pipelines
  • Ports and logistics
  • Banks and insurers
  • Petrochemicals
  • Fertiliser

Countries 10

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Repriced, not shut

    Flows keep climbing toward pre-war while attacks continue at a lower rate; freight and insurance stay far above pre-war and the bypass carries a large share.

  2. S2

    Strike and re-closure

    A post-midterm US-Israeli strike, of the kind the New York Times reported as planned, draws Iranian mining and attacks; flows fall below 10 mb/d and the Houthis target the East-West line and Yanbu. Strature's scenario library shows, over 180 days and the recovery, 204-210m barrels of Japan's oil and 274-278m of South Korea's would not arrive.

  3. S3

    A text and a reopening

    The US and Iran agree a text that lifts the blockade and reopens the strait on Iran's stated six-day sequence; prices fall, but Qatar's two lost LNG trains stay out and insurers price the strait for years.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1IEA monthly Hormuz flows above 14 mb/d
S1UKMTO weekly attacks falling
S1JMIC lowers the SEVERE threat level
S1Brent futures under US$100
S2A strike inside the F-0074 window. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
S2UKMTO weekly transits well below the 254 of mid-October
S2Yanbu loadings stop
S2A new IEA collective action beyond 400 mb agreed / 426 mb pledged
S3An Omani or Pakistani-brokered text
S3Blockade lifted
S3Iranian loadings resume

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it A strike inside the F-0074 window. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)

Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it

  • F-002013.74%Forecasts: S1 Guard-Managed Attrition (MODAL) corrected; supersedes F-0007

    Strature C-002 scenarios for Iran resolve (F-0020, Guard-Managed Attrition: 13.74%, 7 Aug 2026)

    Strature forecast F-0020: 13.74% (7 Aug 2026) · resolves by 18 Jul 2028 · brief C-002

  • F-023716%Forecasts: A deal, and a winter week below $3.50

    register rows F-0237 to F-0243 resolve by 2027-06-30 (16 Oct 2026: highest F-0242, the US strikes Iran with no week below $3.50, 26.7%; Strature forecast F-0237: 16% (16 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0237: 16% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028

  • F-02388%Forecasts: A deal, but the first week below $3.50 comes in the summer season

    Strature forecast F-0238: 8% (16 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0238: 8% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028

  • F-023915.6%Forecasts: A deal, but no week below $3.50

    Strature forecast F-0239: 15.6% (16 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0239: 15.6% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028

  • F-024010.5%Forecasts: A week below $3.50 without a deal

    Strature forecast F-0240: 10.5% (16 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0240: 10.5% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028

  • F-024122.2%Forecasts: Standoff, no week below $3.50

    F-0241, standoff, 22.2%).

    Strature forecast F-0241: 22.2% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028

  • F-024226.7%Forecasts: The US strikes Iran, no week below $3.50

    register rows F-0237 to F-0243 resolve by 2027-06-30 (16 Oct 2026: highest F-0242, the US strikes Iran with no week below $3.50, 26.7%;

    Strature forecast F-0242: 26.7% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028

  • F-02431%Forecasts: All other outcomes

    register rows F-0237 to F-0243 resolve by 2027-06-30 (16 Oct 2026: highest F-0242, the US strikes Iran with no week below $3.50, 26.7%; Strature forecast F-0243: 1% (16 Oct 2026)

    Strature forecast F-0243: 1% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028

  • F-017740%Forecasts: Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-016820%Forecasts: The one oil route to the West Coast fills: Trans Mountain begins apportioning spot nominations

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0168: 20% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2028 · brief C-006

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 1 Nov 2026 Monthly meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries; Saudi November target 10.5 mb/d [41] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. Nov 2026 Strike plans after the US midterm elections, as the New York Times reported [16] Tentative · Outside event
  3. 3 Nov 2026 EIA weekly retail gasoline and diesel prices (weekly cadence; the source states only the 27 Oct release) [6] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections; end of the US President's stated no-strike period [15] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 10 Nov 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook [3] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  6. 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074 (renewed strike on Iran): 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves [21] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  7. 28 Jun 2027 Strature Q-028 window closes; register rows F-0237 to F-0243 resolve by 2027-06-30 (16 Oct 2026: highest F-0242, the US strikes Iran with no week below $3.50, 26.7%; F-0241, standoff, 22.2%). Strature forecast F-0237: 16% (16 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0238: 8% (16 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0239: 15.6% (16 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0240: 10.5% (16 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0243: 1% (16 Oct 2026) [25] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  8. 18 Jul 2028 Strature C-002 scenarios for Iran resolve (F-0020, Guard-Managed Attrition: 13.74%, 7 Aug 2026) [24] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  9. 2031 QatarEnergy's Cheniere LNG deliveries due to begin [11] Declared · Outside event

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Producers outside the strait earn more: US LNG exports rise from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 to 17.6 in 2026 [3], and Qatar itself is now buying US LNG [11]. Oman grows 4.1% in 2026 on the IMF's numbers [7], and its net oil revenue rose 10% in the first half [35]. Japan and South Korea have shifted part of their crude buying to the US (33.7% of Japan's crude in August) [29]. Canada's export routes to Asia and the US pass no Gulf chokepoint; whether Asian buyers will turn to Canadian crude or LNG is an open question.

Connected in Strature

Sources

33 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Strait of Hormuz factsheet (2025 data; IEA analysis of Kpler data). International Energy Agency · 2026-02 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026. US Energy Information Administration · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Europe Brent spot price FOB, daily. US Energy Information Administration · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. US Energy Information Administration · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. World Economic Outlook, October 2026: real GDP growth (DataMapper API). International Monetary Fund · 2026-10 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Consumer Price Index, September 2026. Statistics Canada · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. QatarEnergy signs long-term agreements to purchase 4 MTPA of U.S. LNG from Cheniere through 2054. QatarEnergy · 22 Oct 2026 · Company · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. QatarEnergy Signs Long-Term Deal to Buy U.S. LNG as Iran War Disrupts Exports. gCaptain · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Iran Claims More Ships Struck Near Hormuz as Trump Accuses Tehran of 'Faking Hits'. gCaptain · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Record Tanker Rates Threaten to Push U.S. Oil Exports to Asia to Seven-Year Low. gCaptain (Bloomberg) · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. South Korean Shipowner Sinokor Dominates Hormuz Transits as Oil Flows Rebound. gCaptain (Bloomberg) · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  13. Trump rules out new Iran attack before US midterm elections. France 24 (AFP) · 9 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  14. Are fresh US-Israeli strikes on Iran in the pipeline?. France 24 · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  15. Yemen's Houthi rebels claim new attacks on oil facilities and airports across Saudi Arabia. France 24 · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  16. Iran war live updates. CBS News · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  17. Saudi Arabia says East-West pipeline pumping 5.8 million bpd. Al Jazeera · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  18. S-001: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike (F-0074, issued 2026-08-21). Strature · 30 Sep 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  19. T-003: Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?. Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  20. Strature scenario library: approved readings and cards (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb). Strature · 11 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  21. C-002: Is any single future for Iran likely?. Strature · 7 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  22. Q-028: US gasoline below $3.50 by June 2027. Strature · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  23. Saudi Arabia leads Japan's oil imports in August; U.S. share surges. Arab News Japan · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  24. Fuel support bill hits RO 162m, 4.6 times annual budget. Oman Observer (Ministry of Finance data) · 15 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  25. Asian spot LNG prices hit almost four-year high in Oct. Argus Media · 19 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  26. Yemen's Houthis claim attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport. Khaleej Times · 11 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  27. OPEC press release, 4 October 2026. OPEC · 4 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  28. Europe Brent spot price FOB, monthly. US Energy Information Administration · 2026-10 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  29. US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels. Al Jazeera · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  30. Report: IDF chief pushes back on Netanyahu's order. France 24 · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  31. Hormuz sinking hands marine war underwriters another total loss as attacks surge. Insurance Business · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  32. Natural Gas Weekly Update, week ending 21 January 2026. US Energy Information Administration · 22 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  33. Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½%. Bank of Canada · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 4 · last change: reviewed · All risks