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World risks / Hotspot 2

Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)

52 risks have this as their main hotspot, and 2 more are listed here. The strongest: Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT (High impact · possible).

This page answers: Which risks gather in this hotspot, and how strong is each one?

Using this page
  1. Read each circle: its size shows Impact, its colour shows this month's trend.
  2. Read Likelihood in words beside each risk in the list.
  3. Click a circle or a risk to open its own page.
Lens
War
This month
▲ rising
Status
Under way
Reviewed
28 Oct 2026
Region
Strait of Hormuz11. Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT: High impact · possible22. Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting: High impact · possible33. US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027: Elevated impact · under way66. India tightens cooking-gas rationing again: Elevated impact · possible55. The Strait of Hormuz shuts again: Elevated impact · possible77. Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$70: Elevated impact · unlikely1919. US sanctions hit one of Türkiye's ten largest banks over Iran: Elevated impact · unlikely88. Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG: Elevated impact · under way1010. Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027: Elevated impact · under way1616. A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea: Elevated impact · possible1212. The war budget forces Riyadh to shelve or shrink a giga-project: Elevated impact · possible1414. A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel output: Elevated impact · possible1515. South Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre: Elevated impact · possible99. Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026: Elevated impact · likely2222. Brazil's farmers take a tenth less fertiliser in 2026: Elevated impact · likely2525. A German chemical or steel plant closes or cuts deep as gas costs climb: Elevated impact · possible2626. UK household energy price cap jumps 10% or more in January or April 2027: Elevated impact · possible3838. Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs: Elevated impact · possible4141. A helium shortfall forces chip output cuts in Taiwan or South Korea: Elevated impact · unlikely2121. Japan's oil bill keeps its goods trade in deficit through March 2027: Elevated impact · under way3737. The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fuel: Elevated impact · possible3636. Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 days: Elevated impact · possible2323. The US cuts off a UAE-licensed bank or exchange house over Iran: Elevated impact · possible2424. Free of OPEC, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter: Elevated impact · possible3232. An Iranian strike halts a UAE port, plant or airport: Elevated impact · possible2727. Iraqi crude through Ceyhan falls back below 0.4 mb/d for 30 days: Elevated impact · possible4444. Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz: Low impact · possible4949. Australia sends a warship to the Strait of Hormuz: Low impact · unlikely4747. Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month: Low impact · possible4848. A cyberattack halts a UAE port, airport or energy site for a day: Low impact · unlikely4545. Gulf crude to the Netherlands stops for a month again: Low impact · possible5151. Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airport: Low impact · unlikely1 · High impact · possible3 · Elevated impact · under way19 · Elevated impact · unlikely2 · High impact · possible6 · Elevated impact · possible8 · Elevated impact · under way10 · Elevated impact · under way+ 6 more in the list5 · Elevated impact · possible44 · Low impact · possible49 · Low impact · unlikely7 · Elevated impact · unlikely12 · Elevated impact · possible14 · Elevated impact · possible15 · Elevated impact · possible+ 3 more in the list9 · Elevated impact · likely36 · Elevated impact · possible23 · Elevated impact · possible24 · Elevated impact · possible32 · Elevated impact · possible48 · Low impact · unlikely27 · Elevated impact · possible45 · Low impact · possible51 · Low impact · unlikelyStrait of HormuzAFGHANISTANUAEIRANIRAQKUWAITOMANSAUDI ARABIATHE GULF0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of Hormuz11. Iran answers the IAEA's report to the Security Council by quitting the NPT: High impact · possible22. Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting: High impact · possible77. Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$70: Elevated impact · unlikely66. India tightens cooking-gas rationing again: Elevated impact · possible55. The Strait of Hormuz shuts again: Elevated impact · possible1515. South Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litre: Elevated impact · possible88. Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNG: Elevated impact · under way99. Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026: Elevated impact · likely1010. Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027: Elevated impact · under way1414. A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel output: Elevated impact · possible1616. A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea: Elevated impact · possible2121. Japan's oil bill keeps its goods trade in deficit through March 2027: Elevated impact · under way2323. The US cuts off a UAE-licensed bank or exchange house over Iran: Elevated impact · possible2424. Free of OPEC, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter: Elevated impact · possible3232. An Iranian strike halts a UAE port, plant or airport: Elevated impact · possible3737. The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fuel: Elevated impact · possible2222. Brazil's farmers take a tenth less fertiliser in 2026: Elevated impact · likely2525. A German chemical or steel plant closes or cuts deep as gas costs climb: Elevated impact · possible2626. UK household energy price cap jumps 10% or more in January or April 2027: Elevated impact · possible3838. Singapore's regulated power tariff jumps more than 10% in a quarter on gas costs: Elevated impact · possible4141. A helium shortfall forces chip output cuts in Taiwan or South Korea: Elevated impact · unlikely4545. Gulf crude to the Netherlands stops for a month again: Low impact · possible4848. A cyberattack halts a UAE port, airport or energy site for a day: Low impact · unlikely4444. Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz: Low impact · possible4949. Australia sends a warship to the Strait of Hormuz: Low impact · unlikely5151. Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airport: Low impact · unlikelyStrait of HormuzUAEIRANKUWAITOMANTHE GULF0300 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
The strait
Strait of Hormuz55. The Strait of Hormuz shuts again: Elevated impact · possible4444. Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz: Low impact · possible4949. Australia sends a warship to the Strait of Hormuz: Low impact · unlikely5 · Elevated impact · possible44 · Low impact · possible49 · Low impact · unlikelyBandar AbbasQeshmHormuz IslandLarakKhasabFujairahJaskUAEIRANOMANTHE GULFGULF OF OMAN050 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of Hormuz55. The Strait of Hormuz shuts again: Elevated impact · possible4444. Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz: Low impact · possible4949. Australia sends a warship to the Strait of Hormuz: Low impact · unlikelyBandar AbbasHormuz IslandFujairahJaskUAEIRANOMANTHE GULF050 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Circle size · ImpactlowelevatedhighColour · this monthrisingsteadyfallingcrimson ring: under waymain lane, schematicchokepoint

Source · Strature risk cards with this main hotspot · Map data: Natural Earth (public domain). · lanes schematic · places approximateData as of 31 Oct 2026

Risks in this hotspot Strongest first; Impact and Likelihood in words

  3. US gasoline stays at or above US$3.50 a gallon to June 2027Elevated impact · under way · ▶ steady
  4. IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock releaseElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  5. The Strait of Hormuz shuts againElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  6. India tightens cooking-gas rationing againElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  7. Saudi barrels return and Brent falls below US$70Elevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
  8. Zeebrugge goes a winter quarter without Qatari or Russian LNGElevated impact · under way · ▶ steady
44 more risks in this hotspot
  1. Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026Elevated impact · likely · ▶ steady
  2. Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027Elevated impact · under way · ▲ rising
  3. Diesel in Santiago reaches 1,800 pesos a litreElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  5. A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home marketElevated impact · possible · ▲ rising · not on the map
  6. A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel outputElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  7. South Africa's regulated diesel price reaches R35 a litreElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  9. Thailand's state-managed diesel price reaches 50 baht a litreElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  10. India caps or halts diesel and jet fuel exports to protect its home marketElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady · not on the map
  12. A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in TaiwanElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady · not on the map
  14. Brazil's farmers take a tenth less fertiliser in 2026Elevated impact · likely · ▲ rising
  16. Free of OPEC, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarterElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  20. Canberra steps in again on fertiliser before the 2027 winter cropElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  21. Landlocked Austria draws again on its emergency oil stocksElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  22. Spain's fuel tax relief runs out in the gap between governmentsElevated impact · possible · ▲ rising · not on the map
  23. India's war-year subsidies push its deficit above the 4.3% targetElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  24. An Iranian strike halts a UAE port, plant or airportElevated impact · possible · ▲ rising
  25. Bangladesh sheds 2,000 MW of power at peak againElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  26. Prague caps household power or gas prices againElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  27. A second EU country rations diesel or jet fuelElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  28. Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 daysElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  31. Australia orders diesel rationing or allocationElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady · not on the map
  32. Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in winter 2026-27Elevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady · not on the map
  34. Malaysia raises its subsidised RON95 petrol price to RM2.20 a litre or moreElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady · not on the map
  35. New Zealand moves to phase 4 of its fuel plan: pump limits and priority usersElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady · not on the map
  37. Gulf crude to the Netherlands stops for a month againLow impact · possible · ▶ steady
  38. Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's citiesLow impact · possible · ▶ steady · not on the map
  39. Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a monthLow impact · possible · ▶ steady
  41. Australia sends a warship to the Strait of HormuzLow impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
  42. Hong Kong's airport has to ration jet fuelLow impact · unlikely · ▶ steady · not on the map
  43. Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airportLow impact · unlikely · ▶ steady
  44. Singapore's bunker fuel sales fall more than 10% over three monthsLow impact · unlikely · ▶ steady · not on the map

Felt beyond this map where the other risks start

Australia · India · Worldwide · Austria · Bangladesh · Chile · Czech Republic · European Union · Hong Kong · Malaysia · New Zealand · Singapore · Spain · Switzerland · Taiwan · Thailand · Vietnam

Also listed here risks whose main hotspot is another