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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints · Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)

Singapore's bunker fuel sales fall more than 10% over three months

The test The Maritime and Port Authority's total bunker sales for any three consecutive months from October 2026 to September 2027 fall more than 10% below the same three months a year earlier, as published by 31 Oct 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute2
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Jan-Sep 2026 conventional and biofuel sales 41.97 Mt, +1.8% (Ship & Bunker basis, narrower than the MPA total of 42.50 Mt) [2]
  2. Sep 2026 4.67 Mt, -0.9% y/y (narrower basis); Jan-Sep HSFO 17.58 Mt +10.4%, VLSFO -2%, biofuel blends -48%, LNG 487,100 t +21.4%; 3,617 calls, +2.8%; VLSFO US$870/mt vs US$491 a year earlier [2]
  3. Transportation and storage growth in 3Q 2026 supported by water and air transport [7]
  4. Annual bunker sales 51.82 Mt (2023), 54.92 Mt (2024), 56.79 Mt (2025) [1]
  5. Monthly y/y 2026: Jan +16.5%, Feb +12.9%, Mar +6.7%, Apr -1.1%, May -6.7%, Jun +1.7%, Jul -3.6%, Aug -4.0%, Sep -1.0% (preliminary); Jan-Sep 42.50 Mt, +2.1% (Strature calculation from MPA data) [1]
  6. Worst three-month change -3.0% (May-Jul 2026); Jul-Sep 2026 -2.9% (Strature calculation) [1]
Show 2 earlier changes
  1. Jan-Mar 2026 14.68 Mt, 12.0% above Jan-Mar 2025 (13.10 Mt); a return to 2025 volumes would be about -10.7% (Strature calculation) [1]
  2. Oil tanker arrivals -8.7% y/y in Aug 2026; gas carrier tonnage -10.4% [6]

Why it matters

Singapore sold a record 56.79 Mt of ship fuel in 2025, and 42.50 Mt in January-September 2026, 2.1% more than a year earlier, on the MPA's total for all fuels including LNG. Monthly sales have run slightly below last year since April, by 1.0% to 6.7% in five of six months. No 2026 three-month window that can be compared with a year earlier fell more than 10%, but the high base of early 2026 makes January-March 2027 the quarter to watch.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: High base: a return to 2025 volumes in early 2027 would cross the line [1]; Five monthly falls in six months [1]; High fuel prices [2]. Brakes: Jan-Sep sales still above 2025 [1][2]; No 2026 window near the line [1]; Port calls up in Sep [2]; LNG bunkering growing [2].

Why Impact 3 Threshold case one three-month window just over 10% down.

The other facts on file (2)
  • H1 2026 sales 28.24 Mt, +4.7%; some ships diverted to Singapore from the Middle East at the war's start; some moved to cheaper ports in South Asia and China in some weeks; Singapore called the world's largest bunker hub [5] (14 Jul 2026)
  • Singapore refineries reduced run rates and brought in supply from outside the Middle East [8] (7 Apr 2026)

Where it sits

Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzAFGHANISTANUAEIRANIRAQKUWAITOMANSAUDI ARABIATHE GULFGULF OF OMAN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzUAEIRANKUWAITOMANTHE GULF0300 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

The Maritime and Port Authority's total bunker sales for any three consecutive months from October 2026 to September 2027 fall more than 10% below the same three months a year earlier, as published by 31 Oct 2027.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian channel loses.
  2. The portFewer fuel calls mean less work for suppliers, barges and storage.
  3. Trade routesA slump would signal ships fuelling elsewhere or routes moving off Malacca and Singapore.
  4. RefiningWeaker fuel-oil demand at the hub would weigh on regional refiners.

Sectors 1

  • Ports and logistics

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Singapore, Malaysia
Sectors
Ports and logistics, Energy and pipelines
Goods
Refined fuels, LNG
Straits
Strait of Malacca

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Flat to slightly down

    Monthly sales stay within a few percent of 2025-26 levels.

  2. S2

    Base-effect fall

    January-March 2027 drops back to 2025 volumes, about 10.7% below 2026.

  3. S3

    Route shock

    A closure or long disruption in the Singapore Strait or a shift of Asia-Europe routes cuts calls for months.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1MPA October 2026 figure within 5% of October 2025's 4.82 Mt
S2January 2027 sales below 4.71 Mt
S3Bunker calls falling year on year for three months

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 MPA October 2026 bunker sales [1] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Feb 2027 MPA January 2027 bunker sales [1] Tentative · Outside event
  3. Apr 2027 MPA March 2027 bunker sales, completing January-March [1] Tentative · Outside event
  4. Oct 2027 MPA September 2027 bunker sales, last month in the window [1] Tentative · Outside event
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SINGAPORE · strature.net

The other side

If ships fuel elsewhere, regional ports gain and the volume stays in the market. LNG bunkering in Singapore rose 21.4% in January-September 2026 [2], so the hub keeps a lead in cleaner fuels even if oil-based sales slip.

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Bunker sales ('000 tonnes), bunker-sales_Sep-2026.xlsx. Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore · 2026-10 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. ANALYSIS: Singapore Bunker Sales Slip in September but HSFO Drives Year-to-Date Growth. Ship & Bunker · 15 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Middle East conflict drives Singapore marine fuel sales higher in H1 2026. Baird Maritime (Reuters) · 14 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. ANALYSIS: Singapore Bunker Sales Continue at Record Pace Despite Hormuz Crisis. Ship & Bunker · 14 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Singapore's GDP Grew by 5.4 Per Cent in the Third Quarter of 2026. Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI), Singapore (hosted by the Department of Statistics) · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Ministerial Statement by DPM Gan Kim Yong on the impact of the Middle East situation. Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI), Singapore · 7 Apr 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks