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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints · South China Sea

Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, most commercial traffic through the Singapore Strait halts for 48 hours or more in a row, from an attack, a collision or wreck, or a blockade or closure order by any state.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
2Low steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth7
Depth3
Duration3
Hard to substitute8
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Brent US$123.10 a barrel on 27 Oct 2026 [6]
  2. Likelihood 1 to 2.
  3. Strait of Malacca not a Joint War Committee listed area as of Sep 2026 [7]
  4. 23 incidents in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore in Jan-Sep 2026 vs 97 in Jan-Sep 2025; 22 in the eastbound lane of the Singapore Strait traffic separation scheme; no CAT 1 incident in Asia in 2025 or Jan-Sep 2026 [1]

Why it matters

The Strait of Malacca and its Singapore end carried about 23.2 million barrels of oil a day in the first half of 2025, before the Hormuz crisis, the most of any chokepoint, and over 102,500 ships passed in 2025. Its narrowest point, the Phillips Channel, is about 2.7 km wide. No halt of 48 hours has been found. The littoral states have agreed not to collect tolls, and Singapore says it will not join any blockade. The risk is remote, but a stop would hit Asia's oil and Singapore's record-setting bunker port at once.

Why Likelihood 2 A tail case: no actor pursues a halt, and closure is discussed only as a worst case (Reuters). Risk factors, none a driver toward a 48-hour halt: dense traffic in a 2.7 km channel; the May 2026 collision, which brought no suspension; robbery, now falling.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case: a 48-hour stop, then reopening.

The other facts on file (7)
  • About 23.2 mb/d of oil through the Malacca Strait in 1H 2025, before the Hormuz crisis, 29% of maritime oil flows (EIA via Reuters) [2] (23 Apr 2026)
  • Over 102,500 ship transits in 2025, up from about 94,300 in 2024 (Malaysia's Marine Department via Reuters) [2] (23 Apr 2026)
  • Phillips Channel about 2.7 km wide [2] (23 Apr 2026)
  • Singapore 2025: vessel arrivals 3.22bn GT (+3.5%), 44.66m TEU (+8.6%), bunker sales 56.77 Mt (+3.4%) [3] (13 Jan 2026)
  • Singapore refines about 1.5 mb/d, about two-thirds of crude from the Middle East, about 20% of Australia's refined fuel [4] (2 Apr 2026)
  • Singapore's foreign minister said the littoral states agreed not to collect tolls and Singapore would not join any blockade; Malaysia's said no unilateral decisions can be made; Indonesia's finance minister said tolls were not possible [2] (23 Apr 2026)
  • Two laden Capesize bulkers collided in the Singapore Strait TSS on 19 May 2026; no pollution, injuries or traffic suspension reported [9] (20 May 2026)

Where it sits

Strait of MalaccaTaiwan Strait11. Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more: Elevated impact · unlikely1 · Elevated impact · unlikelyStrait of MalaccaTaiwan StraitManilaSingaporeHo Chi Minh CityCHINAINDONESIACAMBODIALAOSBURMAMALAYSIAPHILIPPINESTHAILANDVIETNAMSOUTH CHINA SEAANDAMAN SEA0500 kmat 10°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of Malacca11. Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more: Elevated impact · unlikelyStrait of MalaccaSingaporeCHINAINDONESIACAMBODIALAOSMALAYSIAPHILIPPINESTHAILANDVIETNAMSOUTH CHINA SEA0300 kmat 10°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, most commercial traffic through the Singapore Strait halts for 48 hours or more in a row, from an attack, a collision or wreck, or a blockade or closure order by any state.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaC$3.19bn of goods exports (excluding gold) to Singapore in 2025 [8]; no sourced Canadian loss.
  2. Oil and fuelAbout 46 mb of oil delayed, about US$5.7bn at 27 Oct Brent (Strature calculation from [2][6]).
  3. ShippingDiversion via Lombok and Makassar, about 1,700 km and 3 days longer for a Gulf-Japan tanker (Japan's Cabinet, 2014) [5].
  4. Fuel supplyBunkering at Singapore and refined fuel for Australia pause.

Sectors 3

  • Ports and logistics
  • Energy and pipelines
  • Banks and insurers

Straits 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia
Sectors
Ports and logistics, Energy and pipelines, Banks and insurers
Goods
Crude oil, Refined fuels
Straits
Strait of Malacca, Lombok makassar

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Business as usual

    Traffic keeps rising and robbery stays low.

  2. S2

    A wreck or spill

    A collision in the Phillips Channel closes one lane for hours, not days; the May 2026 collision brought no reported halt.

  3. S3

    Wider war

    A conflict in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait brings a blockade.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1ReCAAP's 2026 annual count below 2025
S2An MPA navigational notice closing a fairway
S3A Joint War Committee listing of the strait

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 4 Nov 2026 Next EIA weekly Brent release [6] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. Jan 2027 ReCAAP ISC annual report 2026 [1] Tentative · Outside event
  3. Jan 2027 MPA annual port performance for 2026 [3] Tentative · Outside event
  4. 31 Oct 2027 Window ends Declared · Window

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

A strait that stays open and safe keeps Singapore the region's fuel store and lets it earn from Gulf supply stress as a refiner and trader. Lower robbery counts can lower security costs for owners on the route.

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. ReCAAP ISC 3rd Quarter Report 2026. ReCAAP ISC · 2026-10 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. As Hormuz crisis unfolds, all eyes turn toward the vital Malacca Strait (Reuters). Baird Maritime · 23 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Singapore Posts Record Port Performance in 2025. Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore · 13 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. Singapore's major oil source is blocked and experts warn Australians will pay. ABC News · 2 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Cabinet written answer 186-104. House of Councillors (Japan) · 3 Jun 2014 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. Europe Brent Spot Price FOB, daily. US Energy Information Administration · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Strait of Malacca hub. Strature · 14 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, total exports by country, 2025. Statistics Canada · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  9. Two Capesize Bulkers Collide in Singapore Strait. The Maritime Executive · 20 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks