The Philippines declares a new national energy emergency over fuel
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the President of the Philippines issues a new executive order or proclamation declaring a national energy emergency over oil supply or prices.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- By 2 Oct 2026 China had suspended product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau (one news report); stalled US-Iran talks and fresh Strait attacks; a trader projected Metro Manila diesel at P83.23-102.73/l for the following week [4]
Why it matters
In March 2026 the Philippines declared a national energy emergency (Executive Order 110, 24 Mar 2026) as the Iran war cut its oil supply, with diesel above P130 a litre and over 400 stations shut. In 2025, 95% of its crude by weight came from Gulf producers inside the Strait of Hormuz (by country of origin). By 2 Oct 2026 China had suspended product exports again (one news report), and fresh attacks in the Strait were reported. A second declaration needs a new shock; supply is more varied than in March.
Why Likelihood 4 Brakes: the April ceasefire; more varied crude supply and a smaller Chinese diesel share; excise cuts possible without a declaration; diesel prices fell in late September; if EO 110 is still in force, a new declaration is less needed.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: an emergency order with state fuel buying and price measures.
The other facts on file (7)
- EO 110 declared a national energy emergency on 24 Mar 2026; diesel above P130/l, gasoline above P100/l; 425 of 14,485 stations closed on 27 Mar; stocks about 45 days on 20 Mar; no end date recorded (Wikipedia, low confidence) [1] (24 Mar 2026)
- P20bn from the Malampaya fund for fuel buying; WESM suspended 26 Mar; RA 12316 (25 Mar 2026) allows excise cuts up to three months, through 31 Dec 2028; ceasefire 8 Apr [1] (8 Apr 2026)
- China about 30% of PH diesel imports (DOE, Abad: 'a game changer'); PNOC stockpile 1-3 million barrels, 5-15 days [2] (6 Mar 2026)
- China banned diesel, petrol and jet fuel exports from mid-March 2026; the Philippines named as particularly reliant [3] (19 Mar 2026)
- 2025 crude imports by weight: Saudi Arabia 42.9%, UAE 32.6%, Iraq 14.9%; 95.0% from Gulf producers inside the Strait, by country of origin (PSA) [5] (2025)
- Jan-Aug 2026: the Strait's share of crude imports about 64%; China's share of diesel and fuel oil imports 9.6%, from 22.9% in 2025 (PSA, August provisional) [6] (Aug 2026)
- 2025 jet fuel imports 89.1% from China by weight (PSA) [7] (2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the President of the Philippines issues a new executive order or proclamation declaring a national energy emergency over oil supply or prices.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian channel sourced.
- Prices and supplyAn emergency order allows state fuel buying, price controls and excise cuts [1].
- Transport and farmingFuel subsidies to fishers and fertiliser support to farmers; fare rises feed inflation [1][10].
- PowerOil-fired plants and backup generators compete for diesel; the spot market was suspended in March [1].
Goods 3
- Crude oil
- Diesel
- Jet fuel
Sectors 3
- Transport and logistics
- Agriculture and food
- Airlines
Straits 1
Countries 5
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Philippines, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Korea, China
- Sectors
- Transport and logistics, Agriculture and food, Airlines, Electricity
- Goods
- Crude oil, Diesel, Gasoline, Jet fuel, LPG
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Tight but managed
Prices stay high but supply holds; excise cuts without a new emergency.
- S2
A second emergency
A new strike on Iran or a long Chinese export halt cuts cargoes; an emergency order follows.
- S3
Fuel and power together
A fuel shock in the El Niño dry season meets thin power reserves.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | DOE count of days of stock above 45 |
| S2 | Police count of closed stations resumes |
| S3 | Red alerts on Luzon while diesel tops P130 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it
F-024226.7%Forecasts: The US strikes Iran, no week below $3.50
The card links it as a related forecast.
Strature forecast F-0242: 26.7% (16 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · brief Q-028
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections; a possible resumption of attacks on Iran named by a trader [4] Tentative · Outside event
- 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [8] Declared · Strature date
- 27 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
March 2026 pushed buyers to new crude sources: the share from Gulf producers inside the Strait fell from 95% to about 64% by weight (by country of origin) [5][6]. The stockpile plan for the state oil company (1-3 million barrels, 5-15 days of supply) would leave the country better buffered [2].
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Strait of Hormuz
- Philippines
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
- South Korea
- China
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: Gulf crude supply.
- A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market Driven by: A Chinese product export halt.
- A rise in subsidised fuel prices sets off protests in many Indonesian cities Shares a channel: The same fuel shock in South-East Asia.
- Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities Shares a channel: The same fuel shock in South-East Asia.
- The Philippine central bank raises its policy rate again Shares a channel: Oil prices feed Philippine inflation.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- 2026 Philippine energy crisis. Wikipedia · 9 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- PHL plans diesel stockpile amid Middle East war (BusinessWorld original, by Sheldeen Joy Talavera; reposted). Metrobank Wealth Insights · 6 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- China fuel export ban to hit Asia supply (via The Business Times, citing Reuters). Business Insurance · 19 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- China export freeze fuels gasoline hike. Daily Tribune · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Monthly Gross Kilo of Philippine Imports by commodity and country of origin, 2025. Philippine Statistics Authority · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Monthly Gross Kilo of Philippine Import by commodity and country of origin, 2026. Philippine Statistics Authority · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Same table as [5], product lines (motor spirit, diesel and fuel oil, jet fuel). Philippine Statistics Authority · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Strature forecast register, F-0074 and F-0242. Strature · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- BSP delivers jumbo 50-basis-point rate hike. Daily Tribune · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks