A rise in subsidised fuel prices sets off protests in many Indonesian cities
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the government raises the retail price of Pertalite or Biosolar, and within 30 days protests against the rise take place in 5 or more Indonesian cities.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- CPI 3.28% in Sep 2026; administered prices 3.25% [12]
- Brent spot US$115.22 a barrel on 20 Oct 2026 (EIA daily series) [15]
- Bahlil on 12 Oct: subsidies will not rise up to and including December (sampai dengan Desember) [5]
- 2026 deficit outlook 2.85% of GDP vs 2.68% planned [8]
- October 2026 prices: Pertalite Rp10,000, Biosolar Rp6,800, Pertamax Rp15,950, unchanged from September [6]
- 2027 budget assumes US$75 oil [9]
Why it matters
Indonesia has held Pertalite at Rp10,000 a litre and Biosolar at Rp6,800 through 2026, while letting non-subsidised Pertamax rise by about 32% on 10 June. The energy minister promised on 12 October that subsidised prices will not rise before the end of 2026; nothing is promised for 2027. The last subsidised rise, in September 2022, set off student and worker protests in several cities.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: oil above budget assumptions (Brent spot US$115.22 on 20 Oct, EIA); the switch to Pertalite; the promise ends 31 Dec 2026. Brakes: the presidential directive; targeting preferred.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: one rise in Pertalite or Biosolar with protests in five cities; key price the Pertalite pump price.
The other facts on file (6)
- Pertamax Rp12,300 to Rp16,250 and Pertamax Green 95 Rp12,900 to Rp17,000 from 10 Jun 2026; Pertalite Rp10,000 and Biosolar Rp6,800 unchanged [1] (10 Jun 2026)
- Motorists switched from Pertamax to Pertalite, straining supplies [2] (26 Jun 2026)
- Fuel subsidy US$12.3bn costed at US$70 oil; prices above US$100; no rise from 1 Apr [3] (31 Mar 2026)
- Bahlil, after meeting Purbaya on 11 Aug: subsidised prices will not rise through end-2026, on the President's directive; purchase limits by income and vehicle under study [4] (12 Aug 2026)
- Sep 2022 rise: Pertalite Rp7,650 to Rp10,000; protests in several cities; inflation already 4.94% when the rise came [7] (21 Sep 2022)
- Gasoline imports met about 60% of national demand in 2025, mostly from Singapore and Malaysia [14] (8 Apr 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the government raises the retail price of Pertalite or Biosolar, and within 30 days protests against the rise take place in 5 or more Indonesian cities.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian channel sourced.
- Household costsA rise feeds into administered prices; inflation was already 4.94% when the 2022 rise came, and ride-hailing drivers protested [7].
- The budgetA rise would cut subsidy spending and ease pressure on the deficit cap (Strature's view).
- Politics and orderStudent and union protests followed the 2022 rise [7].
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Hold and target
Prices stay; purchase limits for higher-income buyers begin.
- S2
A managed rise
A small rise with cash transfers draws protests in a few cities only.
- S3
Rise and unrest
A large rise in 2027 sets off student and union protests across many cities.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A regulation setting a start date for purchase limits |
| S2 | An announcement of cash aid tied to fuel |
| S3 | Unions or student bodies call a national action within a week of a price notice |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 31 Dec 2026 End of the minister's promise not to raise subsidised prices [5] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Jan 2027 2027 budget in force (US$75 oil assumption) [9] Declared · Outside event
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The other side
Targeting subsidies by income could save money without a general price rise. A rise, if it comes, frees budget room under the deficit cap and narrows the gap that pushed drivers from Pertamax to Pertalite.
Connected in Strature
- Indonesia
- Singapore
- Malaysia
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: Oil prices above the budget assumption raise the subsidy cost.
- Indonesia lifts its 3% deficit cap or weakens the central bank's protection Shares a channel: The subsidy cost presses on the 3% deficit cap.
Sources
12 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Indonesia's Pertamina Hikes Non-Subsidized Fuel Prices as Global Crude Pressures Bite. InvestorTrust · 10 Jun 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Analysis: Pertamax price hike highlights Indonesia's costly fuel subsidies. The Jakarta Post · 26 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Indonesia not to raise fuel price despite budget strains (AFP). Khaleej Times · 31 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Harga Pertalite dan Biosolar dipastikan tak naik hingga akhir 2026. Kabar Bursa · 12 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Harga BBM Pertamina hari ini 18 Oktober (Okezone). RCTI+ · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Daftar lengkap harga BBM Pertamina Oktober 2026. InvestorTrust · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Fuel price rises in Indonesia: a challenge to stay the course. Fulcrum (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute) · 21 Sep 2022 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Defisit APBN tembus Rp319 triliun, Menkeu Suahasil: masih on track. DDTCNews · 9 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Tok! DPR sepakati UU APBN 2027. InvestorTrust · 29 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- BI-Rate Held at 5.75%: Strengthening Stability, Supporting Economic Growth. Bank Indonesia · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Pasokan dunia terganggu, dari mana Indonesia impor BBM?. Republika · 8 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Europe Brent Spot Price FOB, daily. U.S. Energy Information Administration · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks