Switzerland orders power restrictions or quotas in winter 2026-27
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 30 Apr 2027 the Federal Council puts into force an ordinance under the national economic supply law that restricts electricity use, sets electricity quotas or orders grid cut-offs in Switzerland (savings appeals alone do not count).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Impact 3 to 4.
- Up to 45,000 m3 of diesel released from compulsory stocks for 23 Oct-22 Nov 2026; oil situation tense and fragile. [9]
- Goesgen tripped automatically on 20 Oct 2026 and was back on the grid at 17:50 the same day after ENSI cleared the restart. [10]
- Explosion at the old Ritom plant at Piotta killed two AET workers; the plant feeds the Gotthard rail line; production stopped pending checks. [11]
Why it matters
Switzerland imports about a fifth of its winter power, mostly from France, and its thermal reserve plants rely more on gas alone this winter; the Hormuz closure from March tightened gas, and in August LNG transport through the strait was hampered. The regulator sees only a residual risk, in an extreme case of long closure, low gas storage, cold and little wind and sun. Restrictions ordered by the Federal Council would be a first; the base case is that reserves, imports and French nuclear carry the winter.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: Hormuz and LNG uncertainty, low gas storage, gas-only reserve plants, Birr only from Feb 2027, about a fifth of winter power imported, tight oil products.
Why Impact 4 Key price Swiss winter spot (EUR 120/MWh in 2025/26). One national economy; restrictions for weeks, far below the CHF 84bn three-month case; weeks to months; imports and reserves have already fallen short.
The other facts on file (7)
- Winter 2025/26 supply was secure; net imports about 6.8 TWh, about a fifth of winter consumption, covered the Goesgen outage (close to 13% of winter use) and hydro below the two previous winters; no limit restricted imports. [1] (7 May 2026)
- The Iran war and the Hormuz closure from March raised gas and power prices; European gas storage was low; prices did not signal physical shortage; French nuclear availability extraordinarily high; winter 2025/26 Swiss spot EUR 120/MWh. [1] (7 May 2026)
- ElCom kept the hydro reserve at 250 GWh for winter 2026/27, cost EUR 17.2m (EUR 68.81/MWh), citing slow gas storage refill and gas-only thermal reserves. [2] (6 Jul 2026)
- Monthey and Cornaux extended to 2030, emergency generators 280 MW, ewb 50 MW from winter 2026/27, Birr 250 MW test rig; Winter Reserve Ordinance extended to end-2030, successor ordinance from 1 Jan 2027. [3] (12 Jan 2026)
- Old reserve contracts for Birr, Cornaux and Monthey (336 MW) ended spring 2026; five new plants with 583 MW could be ready 2027-2030. [4] (14 May 2025)
- Federal Council asked parliament for about CHF 2.3bn for reserve plants; Birr available from Feb 2027; a three-month winter shortage could cost up to CHF 84bn (federal risk analyses, as reported). [5] (12 Jun 2026)
- EU gas storage about 58%, very low in a five-year comparison; the Iran war hampers or prevents LNG transport through Hormuz. [12] (5 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 30 Apr 2027 the Federal Council puts into force an ordinance under the national economic supply law that restricts electricity use, sets electricity quotas or orders grid cut-offs in Switzerland (savings appeals alone do not count).
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- Households and firmsSavings appeals, use restrictions and quotas, alone or combined (large users register for quotas); grid cut-offs are the last measure.
- EconomyFederal risk analyses put a three-month winter shortage at up to CHF 84bn (as reported) [5].
- PricesA shortage would raise the Swiss winter spot and neighbours' prices.
- NeighboursSwitzerland draws mainly on France; a Swiss shortage would mean a regional shortfall.
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Switzerland, France, Germany, Italy, Austria
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Rail
- Goods
- LNG
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Mild winter, reserves idle
French nuclear and imports cover demand, as in 2025/26.
- S2
Tight but managed
Cold spells, high prices and a call on the hydro reserve, with no ordinance.
- S3
Extreme case
Hormuz shut, low storage, a long cold spell with little wind and sun; the Federal Council orders restrictions.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No hydro-reserve call by 31 Jan 2027 |
| S2 | Birr available in February 2027 |
| S3 | Federal Council savings appeals before 1 Feb 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 1 Nov 2026 Scored window opens Declared · Window
- Dec 2026 Parliament's winter session may take up reserve financing [5] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Jan 2027 Successor ordinance under the revised Electricity Supply Act due to replace the Winter Reserve Ordinance [3] Tentative · Outside event
- Feb 2027 Birr test rig available as a reserve plant [5] Tentative · Outside event
- 30 Apr 2027 Scored window closes Declared · Window
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Connected in Strature
- LNG
- Strait of Hormuz
- Switzerland
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: Swiss thermal reserves rely more on gas; ElCom names the Hormuz closure, and LNG transport through Hormuz was hampered in August.
- River heat forces three or more French reactors to stop or cut output at once in summer 2027 Shares a channel: Swiss winter imports come mainly from France.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Stromversorgungssicherheit Schweiz: Unsicherheiten durch Iran-Krieg. Swiss Federal Council (ElCom) · 7 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Newsletter 07/2026: Einrichtung einer verpflichtenden Wasserkraftreserve. ElCom · 6 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Gas- und Dampfkombikraftwerk von ewb steht ab Winter 2026/27 als Reservekraftwerk bereit. Swiss Federal Council · 12 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Fünf Reservekraftwerke für die Versorgungssicherheit ab 2026. Swiss Federal Council · 14 May 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Parlament kann über Finanzierung von Reservekraftwerken befinden. cash.ch (SDA) · 12 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Versorgungslage (situation report of 21 Oct 2026). Federal Office for National Economic Supply · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Kernkraftwerk Gösgen: Stromproduktion wieder aufgenommen. Kernkraftwerk Gösgen-Däniken AG · 20 Oct 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Kraftwerk Ritom: Zwei Tote nach Unfall in Wasserkraftwerk Ritom in Piotta TI. SRF · 9 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Wegen Iran-Krieg: Sorge vor Gas-Mangellage, Taskforce soll Lösungen suchen. SRF · 5 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks