Sign in Get in touch
Your exposure · Country · Europe

Italy

Italy is Qatar's largest LNG buyer in Europe: 4.8 of 14.5 Mt in 2025 (33.1%), and LNG was about 30% of its gas supply in H1 2025 (Snam, as reported). High band, on LNG. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Italy?

Using this page
  1. Read the questions our briefs address, and any country reading.
  2. Filter the questions by domain, series or topic.
  3. Open a brief for its free summary sheet and executive read.
  • Briefs 1 questions in 1 briefs
  • Region Europe · Western Europe
  • Readings updated
Link to this page

Follow ItalySign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Your exposure

Italy in our readings

Italy is in 2 of our country readings; High in 1.

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · ITALY
Italy imported 84.7% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
84.7%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 45.5%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Gas, 47.4%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 48.7% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.122024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: diversified

The EU's position in value chains (Italy is a member)

No value-chain share for Italy alone is on file; these are the EU's, which include it.

  • Design software and IP as part of the EU 25%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Chipmaking equipment as part of the EU 18%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Analog and other design as part of the EU 17%BCG and SIA · 2022

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Value chains: BCG and SIA (facts-only: Copyright BCG and SIA; single facts cited with attribution (read via reproduction by a government office)). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Italy · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Elevated
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Low
  • Energy and resources High
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Italy on the outlook map

Dates for Italy on the risk calendar

Key questions (3)
The other side: 6 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Italy

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Our reading · Strait of Hormuz

  • US tariffs and Canada Medium

    • F-0212 · The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 8%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

    • F-0213 · A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 47%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

    Our reading · US tariffs and Canada

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Italy: its Hormuz volumes on file stop at 2024, and the scenario cases run on one year, 2025.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Italy makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Early Dec 2026 End of the current Edison force-majeure window. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Italian LNG arrivals by origin and storage levels. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Italian durum imports by origin. US tariffs and Canada
  • 31 Dec 2026 The Q-027 forecasts on the EU share of Canada's exports resolve. US tariffs and Canada
  • Ongoing Italy's CETA ratification. US tariffs and Canada

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Italy?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Italy, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Italy on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Italy, importer through the straits

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Italy.

Chokepoints

Crude oil, import dependence
92%
Stock cover (compulsory oil stocks, days of net imports (legal minimum))
90 days (2026)

Qatari LNG and Gulf refined fuels, primary aluminium and methanol are its main Gulf links. 1

Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Crude oil, 2024: Suez 16% · Hormuz 15% · Bab el-Mandeb 15% · Turkish Straits 15% (the route model covers 99% of its named imports) modelled
  • Refined fuels, 2024: Suez 57% · Bab el-Mandeb 45% · Hormuz 36% · Malacca 3.5% · Turkish Straits 0.2% · Panama 0.1% (the route model covers 96% of its named imports) modelled
  • LNG, 2024: Bab el-Mandeb 47% · Suez 47% · Hormuz 47% · Malacca 0.2% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz

Dashed underline = low confidence.

importer through the straitsFlows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where Italy’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

Show the list

    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Questions our briefs address

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Italy.

    HighGulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for ItalyGulfGulf war / Hormuz

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Italy

    Italy is Qatar's largest LNG buyer in Europe: 4.8 of 14.5 Mt in 2025 (33.1%), and LNG was about 30% of its gas supply in H1 2025 (Snam, as reported). High band, on LNG.est.

    Theme band High

    33.1%

    Qatar share of LNG imports, 2025

    4.8

    Qatari LNG, Mt, 2025

    35est.

    Edison cargoes under Qatari force majeure, Apr-early Dec 2026

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Edison's 6.4 bcm a year Qatari contract is under force majeure: 35 cargoes from Apr to early Dec 2026 (press). Estimate from press or commentary
    • QatarEnergy extended force majeure again on 28 Sep 2026. A winter without Qatari cargoes leaves Italy competing for spot LNG. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Gulf crude, 10.2% of imports in 2025 (Iraq and Saudi Arabia), just above the 10% line, is priced off a Brent that averaged US$114 in Sep 2026.

    Opportunities

    • US LNG is already the largest source: 55% of Italian LNG imports in Q1 2026, with the Ravenna FSRU in service since 2025.
    • Replacement worked in part: 23 of the 35 cancelled Edison cargoes were replaced by 28 Sep 2026 (press, search snippet). Estimate from press or commentary

    Uncertainties

    • LNG's share of gas supply: about 30% in H1 2025 (Snam) and about a third of consumption in 2025 (press), but 25% of imports in 2024. The higher 2025 figures are why the LNG band is High. Estimate from press or commentary
    • How long Qatar's two damaged trains stay out after the Strait reopens, which decides Edison's volumes next year. Estimate from press or commentary

    What to watch

    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could extend force majeure past early December.
    • Early Dec 2026End of the current Edison force-majeure window.
    • MonthlyItalian LNG arrivals by origin and storage levels.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    LNGEnergy33.1% 2025Share of LNG imports from Qatar (volume; UAE nil in 2025)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
    Crude oilEnergy10.2% 2025Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value)LowHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
    AluminiumSupply chain22.4% of HS7601 imports 2025GCC6 share of unwrought aluminium (HS7601) importsBelow lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Italian LNG imports, 2025 (Mt): Qatar against the total
    LNG imports from the United States: 6.8 Mt (2025)United States6.8LNG imports from Qatar: 4.8 Mt (2025)Qatar4.8LNG imports, total: 14.5 Mt (2025)Total14.5

    GulfElsewhereTotals

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: GIIGNL Annual Report 2026 (2025 trade; data GIIGNL and Kpler).

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Share of LNG imports from Qatar (volume; UAE nil in 2025): 33.1% (= 4.8 / 14.5)
    • Qatari LNG to replace if Qatari supply stays out for 3 months: 1.2 Mt (= 4.8 × 3 / 12)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 19 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    MediumUS tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for ItalyUS tariffsUS tariffs and Canada

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Italy

    Canada supplies 32.5% of Italy's durum wheat imports (2025), a Medium stake. Italy is one of 9 member states yet to ratify CETA; Canada bought C$13.66bn from it.

    Theme band Medium

    32.5%

    Canada's share of Italian durum imports, 2025

    19.7%

    Canada's share of all Italian wheat imports, 2025

    C$13.7bn

    Canada's imports from Italy, 2025

    0.53%

    Share of Canada's exports excl. gold, 2025

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Italy is one of 9 member states yet to ratify CETA; until all have, CETA applies only provisionally.
    • A Canadian recession (F-0174) would cut Canada's C$13.66bn of imports from Italy.
    • US duties on steel and aluminium stay at 50% for EU goods (press summary). Estimate from press or commentary

    Opportunities

    • Canada bought C$0.93bn of Italian beverages in 2025, up 9.0%, while its US beverage imports fell.
    • Canada's exports to Italy rose 17.0% in 2025, to C$3.87bn excluding gold.

    Uncertainties

    • Durum shares swing with the harvests in Italy and Canada: 24.9% in 2024.
    • Italy sits just under our money line for Canada as a market: C$13.66bn against C$14bn.

    What to watch

    • MonthlyItalian durum imports by origin.
    • 31 Dec 2026The Q-027 forecasts on the EU share of Canada's exports resolve.
    • OngoingItaly's CETA ratification.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Supply from Canada (durum wheat)Food and farming32.5% of the country's imports of the good 2025Canada's share of the country's imports of durum wheat (HS 100119)MediumHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Canada's share of Italian imports, 2025 (%)
    Canada's share of the country's imports of durum wheat (HS 100119): 32.5% of the country's imports of the good (2025)Durum wheat32.5Canada's share of the country's imports of wheat (HS 1001): 19.7% of the country's imports of the good (2025)Wheat19.7

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), imports by partner, as reported by the importing country.

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Country's share of Canada's goods exports to the EU-27: 9.12% of Canada's exports to the EU-27 (= Canada's 2025 exports to the country / Canada's 2025 exports to the EU-27)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →

    Strait of Hormuz: what passes the strait for ItalyHormuzChokepoints: Strait of Hormuz

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Italy: what passes the strait

    Qatari LNG and Gulf refined fuels, primary aluminium and methanol are its main Gulf links.

    Italy is also counted in the European Union (as a bloc): its card on the Hormuz page.

    Route shares are modelled estimates; each figure carries its source. General research, not advice.

    Open on the Hormuz page The briefing

    Filter the questions Domain · Series · Topic
    Domain Series Topic

    Where Italy acts · 1 question

    Decision Brief · Q-027 · 1 questionBeyond CETA: what the EU relationship adds, and when exporters should commit
    Geopolitical · Geoeconomic
    How many member states still have not ratified CETA, nine years on?

    “France and Italy are among 10 member states that have not ratified CETA, 9 years after it began to apply. For exporters, today's terms keep running, but any access beyond them waits on those votes.”

    The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.
    Primary Canada Affected Belgium +8
    CanadaBelgiumBulgariaCyprusFranceGreeceHungaryIrelandPolandSlovenia

    What it says about ItalyActor: takes the action

    “the same 10 as not: Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland and Slovenia”

    From the brief
    Read the section: 06 · Ten member states still have not ratified CETA after nine years.

    Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, and so is each sentence under “What it says”; anything labelled “Context, not from the brief” comes from the public source named beside it. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.

    Regions in these questions Europe · North America

    ISO 3166-1 name: Italy (ITA). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Published briefs

    Briefs with Italy as their subject.

    No published brief has Italy as its subject yet; the questions above name it in another role.

    Forecast register

    Forecasts on the register attached to the questions above.

    Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.

    No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.

    The forecast register

    Free downloads

    The summary sheet and the executive read are free.

    The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.

    General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Italy”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/ita/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
    Ask about Italy

    A question this page does not answer?

    Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.

    Is your company exposed in Italy? An exposure assessment of your own company, free. Request a free pilot

    Suggest a question The method