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Luxembourg

Luxembourg books C$76.2bn of direct investment in Canada; on an ultimate-investor basis its position is C$28.3bn. It is a conduit centre, so the band is capped at Low. Approved reading

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  • Region Europe · Western Europe
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Your exposure

Luxembourg in our readings

Luxembourg is in 1 of our country readings.

  • US tariffs and Canada Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Low
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Luxembourg on the outlook map

Dates for Luxembourg on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Luxembourg

  • US tariffs and Canada Low

    • F-0173 · A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029 · 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006

    US tariffs and Canada

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Luxembourg makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Apr 2027 Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor. US tariffs and Canada
  • 30 Sep 2027 F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level. US tariffs and Canada

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Luxembourg?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Luxembourg, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Luxembourg on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Luxembourg.

US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief

US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Luxembourg

Luxembourg books C$76.2bn of direct investment in Canada; on an ultimate-investor basis its position is C$28.3bn. It is a conduit centre, so the band is capped at Low.

Theme band Low

C$76.2bn

Booked to Luxembourg, immediate-investor basis (2025)

C$28.3bn

Controlled from Luxembourg, ultimate-investor basis (2025)

37.2%

Ultimate-investor position as % of the booked position (2025)

C$108bn

Canadian direct investment in Luxembourg (2025)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • On an ultimate-investor basis Luxembourg's position is C$28.3bn, 37.2% of the C$76.2bn booked to it: much of what is booked there belongs to investors elsewhere.
  • Steel is where the dispute reaches a Luxembourg-headquartered group: ArcelorMittal, which makes steel in Canada, sold US$6.9bn of exports into the US in 2025, group-wide, and US steel imports have paid a 50% duty since Jun 2025.
  • The booked position rose from C$70.3bn in 2024 to C$76.2bn in 2025, so more holdings are within reach of the US measures.

Opportunities

  • Canadian direct investment in Luxembourg, C$108.0bn, is 1.42 times Luxembourg's position in Canada: the link runs both ways.
  • Canada's exports to Luxembourg tripled in 2025, to C$235.8 million, from a small base.

Uncertainties

  • Statistics Canada does not publish which ultimate investors stand behind the Luxembourg holdings.
  • ArcelorMittal's filings do not state what US tariffs cost its Canadian operations; a press figure is not used here.

What to watch

  • Apr 2027Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor.
  • 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level.
  • QuarterlyArcelorMittal results: its North America segment, which includes its Canadian plants.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Capital in CanadaCapital and financeC$76.2bn 2025Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country)LowHigh ≥C$100bn · Medium ≥C$25bn and <C$100bn · Low ≥C$10bn and <C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placed

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Luxembourg and Canada: direct investment positions, 2025 (C$bn)
Canadian direct investment position in the country (book value): C$108bn (2025)Outward (Canada's)108.0Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country): C$76.2bn (2025)Inward, immediate76.2Direct investment position in Canada, ultimate investor basis (book value): C$28.3bn (2025)Inward, ultimate28.3

Immediate investor: the country where the investment is booked. Ultimate investor: the country of the company that controls it.

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value); Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value).

Briefs and questions

  • C-006 F-0173 A lasting break: US tariffs still above their 2024 level, 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Ultimate-investor position as a share of the immediate-investor position in Canada: 37.2% (= ultimate-investor position / immediate-investor position × 100)
  • Canadian direct investment position in Luxembourg as a multiple of Luxembourg's position in Canada: 1.42 times (= Canadian position in the country / the country's position in Canada)
  • Share of all foreign direct investment in Canada booked to the country (immediate basis): 4.8% of FDI in Canada (= immediate-investor position / all FDI in Canada × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 7 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →

ISO 3166-1 name: Luxembourg (LUX). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Luxembourg”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/lux/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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