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Finland

Finland's Gulf exposure is diesel: Qatar supplied 13.0% of middle-distillate imports in 2025, against 5.7% of all refined products and no Gulf crude. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Finland?

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  • Region Europe · Western Europe
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Your exposure

Finland in our readings

Finland is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · FINLAND
Finland imported 46.1% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
46.1%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 34.8%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Nuclear, 39.9%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 56.5% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.582024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: concentrated

The EU's position in value chains (Finland is a member)

No value-chain share for Finland alone is on file; these are the EU's, which include it.

  • Design software and IP as part of the EU 25%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Chipmaking equipment as part of the EU 18%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Analog and other design as part of the EU 17%BCG and SIA · 2022

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Value chains: BCG and SIA (facts-only: Copyright BCG and SIA; single facts cited with attribution (read via reproduction by a government office)). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Finland · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Low
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Finland on the outlook map

Dates for Finland on the risk calendar

The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Finland

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Finland: its Hormuz volumes on file stop at 2024, and the scenario cases run on one year, 2025.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Finland makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Quarterly Statistics Finland energy imports by origin: does Qatari diesel return to its 2025 share? Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Diesel and petrol pump prices. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Finland?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Finland, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Finland on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Finland

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Finland.

Chokepoints

Not enough open data
Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Refined fuels, 2025: Bab el-Mandeb 19% · Suez 19% · Hormuz 13% · Malacca 5.8% (the route model covers 91% of its named imports) modelled
  • LPG, 2025: Panama 1.1% (the route model covers 95% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz
  • Import dependence
  • Oil stocks in days
  • A headline line

Dashed underline = low confidence.

Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where Finland’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

Show the list

    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Finland.

    Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Finland

    Finland's Gulf exposure is diesel: Qatar supplied 13.0% of middle-distillate imports in 2025, against 5.7% of all refined products and no Gulf crude.

    Theme band Low

    13%

    of diesel and gas oil imports from Qatar, by value (2025)

    5.7%

    of refined product imports from the Gulf, by value (2025)

    79.3%

    of crude import value from Norway (2025)

    64.6%

    of LNG imports from the US (2025)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • A renewed closure could cut Qatari diesel again. Qatar's share of middle-distillate imports fell from 13.0% in 2025 to 5.0% in H1 2026.
    • Fuel is dear at the pump: diesel averaged EUR 2.572 a litre in October 2026 (press estimate). Estimate from press or commentary
    • The energy import bill rose: energy imports cost EUR 3.6 bn in Q2 2026, up 50% on a year earlier.
    • Jet fuel was a Gulf channel in 2024, when Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia supplied 44.3% of jet import value. It would return if those cargoes come back.

    Opportunities

    • Neste's Oil Products segment, which runs the Porvoo refinery, reported comparable EBITDA of EUR 334m in Q2 2026, against EUR 135m a year earlier; the company cited exceptionally wide diesel cracks.
    • Refining needs no Gulf crude: Norway supplied 79.3% of crude import value in 2025 and the US 10.3%.
    • Gas comes from outside the Gulf: the US supplied 64.6% of LNG imports in 2025 and Norway 31.9%, with no Qatari LNG.

    Uncertainties

    • Crude and diesel import volumes are confidential since 2023, so the shares here rest on import value.
    • Finland's calculated share of the IEA release of March 2026 was 1.752 million barrels of crude. The amount Finland released was not found.
    • How much of the diesel bought from European refiners rests on Gulf crude is not measured here.

    What to watch

    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves: a renewed strike on Iran could close the Strait again.
    • QuarterlyStatistics Finland energy imports by origin: does Qatari diesel return to its 2025 share?
    • MonthlyDiesel and petrol pump prices.
    • QuarterlyNeste results: diesel margins and Porvoo utilisation after the Aug-Oct 2026 turnaround.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Refined products (diesel)Energy13% 2025Qatar's share of Finland's middle-distillate (diesel, gas oil) import valueLowHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
    Refined productsEnergy5.7% 2025Gulf share of Finland's refined product imports (value)Below lineHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
    Fertiliser (urea)Food and farmingEUR65m 2025Nitrogen fertiliser imports (HS 3102), all originsBelow lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
    AluminiumSupply chain7% 2025Gulf (UAE, Bahrain) share of unwrought aluminium imports (value)Below lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%
    Exports to the GulfTrade1.2% 2025Share of goods exports sold to GCC states and IranBelow lineHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Gulf share of Finnish import value: diesel, jet fuel and all refined products (%)
    Gulf share (Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia) of Finland's jet fuel import value: 44.3% (2024)Gulf share (Kuwait,…44.3Qatar's share of Finland's middle-distillate (diesel, gas oil) import value: 13% (2025)Qatar13.0Gulf share of Finland's refined product imports (value): 5.7% (2025) (our calculation)Gulf*5.7

    GulfElsewhere

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Finland, Energy import and export, value (StatFin table 13j9). * Our calculation from the cited figures.

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Gulf share of Finland's refined product imports (value): 5.7% (= Gulf product imports / all product imports)
    • Gulf (UAE, Bahrain) share of unwrought aluminium imports (value): 7% (= UAE + Bahrain HS 7601 imports / all HS 7601 imports)
    • Share of goods exports sold to GCC states and Iran: 1.2% (= exports to GCC and Iran / total goods exports)
    • Middle-distillate (diesel, gas oil) imports from Qatar, by value: EUR186.5m (= sum of four 2025 quarters, StatFin 13j9, middle distillates, Qatar (13.0% × EUR 1,430.2m))

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 28 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    ISO 3166-1 name: Finland (FIN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Finland”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/fin/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
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