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Spain

Canada supplies 61.7% of Spain's iron-ore imports (2025), a High stake on one channel. Canada's exports to Spain rose 32.4% in 2025, to C$2.69bn. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Spain?

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  • Region Europe · Western Europe
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Your exposure

Spain in our readings

Spain is in 1 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • US tariffs and Canada High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · SPAIN
Spain imported 76.8% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
76.8%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 55.5%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Solar, 21.9%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 55.9% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.092024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: diversified

The EU's position in value chains (Spain is a member)

No value-chain share for Spain alone is on file; these are the EU's, which include it.

  • Design software and IP as part of the EU 25%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Chipmaking equipment as part of the EU 18%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Analog and other design as part of the EU 17%BCG and SIA · 2022

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Value chains: BCG and SIA (facts-only: Copyright BCG and SIA; single facts cited with attribution (read via reproduction by a government office)). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Spain · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Elevated
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Low
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Spain on the outlook map

Dates for Spain on the risk calendar

Key questions (2)
The other side: 5 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Spain

  • US tariffs and Canada High

    • F-0212 · The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 8%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

    • F-0213 · A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 47%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

    US tariffs and Canada

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Spain: its Hormuz volumes on file stop at 2024, and the scenario cases run on one year, 2025.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Spain makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Canada's exports to Spain (Statistics Canada). US tariffs and Canada
  • 31 Dec 2026 The Q-027 forecasts on the EU share of Canada's exports resolve. US tariffs and Canada
  • Feb 2027 Importers start buying EU carbon border (CBAM) certificates for 2026 imports, including Canadian steel and aluminium; the charge has applied since 1 Jan 2026 (C-006). US tariffs and Canada

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Spain?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Spain, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Spain on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Spain, importer through the straits

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Spain.

Chokepoints

Crude oil, import dependence
100%
Stock cover (oil stocks, days, as reported)
92 days (Mar 2026)

Gulf primary aluminium, refined fuels and petrochemicals are its main Gulf links; its oil stocks were at the 92-day legal level before the 2026 release. 1

Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Crude oil, 2024: Suez 8.4% · Hormuz 7.4% · Bab el-Mandeb 7.4% · Turkish Straits 4.0% (the route model covers 97% of its named imports) modelled
  • Refined fuels, 2024: Suez 25% · Bab el-Mandeb 22% · Hormuz 9.7% · Malacca 2.5% · Panama 0.8% (the route model covers 99% of its named imports) modelled
  • LPG, 2025: Panama 1.0% (the route model covers 88% of its named imports) modelled
  • LNG, 2025: Bab el-Mandeb 7.8% · Suez 7.8% · Malacca 5.2% · Hormuz 2.6% (the route model covers 93% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz

Dashed underline = low confidence.

importer through the straitsFlows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where Spain’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

Show the list

    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Spain.

    US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Spain

    Canada supplies 61.7% of Spain's iron-ore imports (2025), a High stake on one channel. Canada's exports to Spain rose 32.4% in 2025, to C$2.69bn.

    Theme band High

    61.7%

    Canada's share of Spanish iron-ore imports, 2025

    17.5%

    Canada's share of Spanish wheat imports, 2025

    C$2.69bn

    Canada's exports to Spain, 2025

    C$4.61bn

    Canada's imports from Spain, 2025

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • One input, one supplier: iron ore is the whole of Spain's exposure on our lines.
    • A Canadian recession (F-0174) would cut Canada's C$4.61bn of imports from Spain.
    • US duties on steel stay at 50% for EU goods (press summary), a cost for the steel that Canadian ore feeds. Estimate from press or commentary

    Opportunities

    • Canadian wheat took 17.5% of Spain's wheat imports in 2025, up from 6.1%.
    • Canada's imports from Spain rose 11.1% in 2025.
    • Spain is not among the 9 member states yet to ratify CETA.

    Uncertainties

    • Spain is below our diversification line: 0.37% of Canada's exports excluding gold.
    • Iron-ore values move with steel demand and prices.

    What to watch

    • MonthlyCanada's exports to Spain (Statistics Canada).
    • 31 Dec 2026The Q-027 forecasts on the EU share of Canada's exports resolve.
    • Feb 2027Importers start buying EU carbon border (CBAM) certificates for 2026 imports, including Canadian steel and aluminium; the charge has applied since 1 Jan 2026 (C-006).

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Supply from Canada (iron ore)Dependence61.7% of the country's imports of the good 2025Canada's share of the country's imports of iron ore (HS 2601)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Canada's share of Spanish imports, 2025 (%)
    Canada's share of the country's imports of iron ore (HS 2601): 61.7% of the country's imports of the good (2025)Iron ore61.7Canada's share of the country's imports of wheat (HS 1001): 17.5% of the country's imports of the good (2025)Wheat17.5

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), imports by partner, as reported by the importing country.

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Country's share of Canada's goods exports to the EU-27: 6.27% of Canada's exports to the EU-27 (= Canada's 2025 exports to the country / Canada's 2025 exports to the EU-27)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Spain: what passes the strait

    Gulf primary aluminium, refined fuels and petrochemicals are its main Gulf links; its oil stocks were at the 92-day legal level before the 2026 release.

    Spain is also counted in the European Union (as a bloc): its card on the Hormuz page.

    Route shares are modelled estimates; each figure carries its source. General research, not advice.

    Open on the Hormuz page The briefing

    ISO 3166-1 name: Spain (ESP). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Spain”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/esp/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • General research, not advice.
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