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Sweden

Sweden holds C$10.4bn of direct investment in Canada, C$11.7bn on an ultimate basis. Canada was also reported in May 2026 to have opened talks on Saab GlobalEye aircraft worth more than C$5bn. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Sweden?

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  • Region Europe · Western Europe
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Your exposure

Sweden in our readings

Sweden is in 1 of our country readings.

  • US tariffs and Canada Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · SWEDEN
Sweden imported 33.9% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
33.9%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 36.3%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Hydro, 40.1%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 71.4% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.372024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: moderately concentrated

The EU's position in value chains (Sweden is a member)

No value-chain share for Sweden alone is on file; these are the EU's, which include it.

  • Design software and IP as part of the EU 25%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Chipmaking equipment as part of the EU 18%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Analog and other design as part of the EU 17%BCG and SIA · 2022

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Value chains: BCG and SIA (facts-only: Copyright BCG and SIA; single facts cited with attribution (read via reproduction by a government office)). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Sweden · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Low
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

  • Geopolitics and conflict

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    1.3 /10range 0.1–2.6 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: European Commission Joint Research Centre (INFORM), INFORM Risk; Natural Earth; Strature, forecast register; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP battle deaths; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP event data; World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    Outlook

    Low

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Supply chains and chokepoints

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Energy and resources

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Technology and cyber

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Regulation and compliance

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    1.4 /10range 0.6–2.3 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Finance and markets

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

Compare Sweden on the outlook map

Dates for Sweden on the risk calendar

Key questions (2)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Sweden

  • US tariffs and Canada Low

    • F-0173 · A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029 · 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006

    US tariffs and Canada

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Sweden: no Hormuz shipping volume (tonnes or barrels) for it is on file, and the scenario cases need one.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Sweden makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Saab and the Department of National Defence on GlobalEye contract talks. US tariffs and Canada
  • Apr 2027 Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor. US tariffs and Canada
  • 30 Sep 2027 F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level. US tariffs and Canada

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Sweden?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Sweden, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Sweden on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Sweden

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Sweden.

Chokepoints

Not enough open data
Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Refined fuels, 2024: Bab el-Mandeb 11% · Suez 11% · Hormuz 8.8% · Panama 0.4% (the route model covers 99% of its named imports) modelled
  • LNG, 2024: Bab el-Mandeb 5.6% · Suez 5.6% · Malacca 5.6% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz
  • Import dependence
  • Oil stocks in days
  • A headline line
  • Supply routes into it

Dashed underline = low confidence.

Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

Show the list

    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Sweden.

    US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Sweden

    Sweden holds C$10.4bn of direct investment in Canada, C$11.7bn on an ultimate basis. Canada was also reported in May 2026 to have opened talks on Saab GlobalEye aircraft worth more than C$5bn.

    Theme band Low

    C$10.4bn

    Direct investment in Canada, immediate basis (2025)

    C$11.7bn

    Controlled from Sweden, ultimate basis (2025)

    C$5bnest.

    Reported value of Saab GlobalEye talks, 6 aircraft, more than C$bn (May 2026)

    C$5.23bn

    Canada's goods imports from Sweden (2025)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • A non-binding GlobalEye term sheet was reported signed on 25 Sep 2026; Saab says it is not a purchase contract, and no signed contract was found to 6 Oct 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
    • A Canadian recession (F-0174) would weigh on returns from C$10.4bn of Swedish-booked holdings.
    • Copper made 29.9% of Canada's imports from Sweden in 2025; a weaker Canadian economy (F-0174) would cut demand for such inputs.

    Opportunities

    • Saab was reported to have said that an order of 40 Gripen would justify building whole jets in Canada (commentary report). Saab's only Gripen E final assembly line outside Sweden opened in Brazil in 2023. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Canada's exports to Sweden rose 19.4% in 2025, to C$0.96bn.

    Uncertainties

    • Whether Canada orders Gripen at all, and with what Canadian content, is not known.
    • Defence purchases show in goods trade only on delivery, so trade data will lag any deal.
    • Swedish-controlled investment in Canada, C$11.7bn, is above the booked figure: Swedish capital also enters through other countries.

    What to watch

    • MonthlySaab and the Department of National Defence on GlobalEye contract talks.
    • Apr 2027Statistics Canada's next annual direct investment release, by immediate and ultimate investor.
    • 30 Sep 2027F-0173 resolves: US tariffs still above their 2024 level.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Capital in CanadaCapital and financeC$10.4bn 2025Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country)LowHigh ≥C$100bn · Medium ≥C$25bn and <C$100bn · Low ≥C$10bn and <C$25bn, or a pledge with nothing found placed

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Sweden and Canada: direct investment positions, 2025 (C$bn)
    Direct investment position in Canada, ultimate investor basis (book value): C$11.7bn (2025)Inward, ultimate11.7Direct investment position in Canada (book value, immediate investor country): C$10.4bn (2025)Inward, immediate10.4Canadian direct investment position in the country (book value): C$8.6bn (2025)Outward (Canada's)8.6

    Immediate investor: the country where the investment is booked. Ultimate investor: the country of the company that controls it.

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0008-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada, by country, annual (book value); Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0433-01, International investment position, Canadian direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in Canada by ultimate investor country, annual (book value).

    Briefs and questions

    • C-006 F-0173 A lasting break: US tariffs still above their 2024 level, 92%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
    • C-006 F-0174 Canada in recession, 25%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Share of all foreign direct investment in Canada booked to the country (immediate basis): 0.65% of FDI in Canada (= immediate-investor position / all FDI in Canada × 100)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →

    ISO 3166-1 name: Sweden (SWE). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Sweden”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/swe/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • General research, not advice.
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