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Belgium

Canada supplies 66.1% of Belgium's potash and 42.6% of its iron ore (2025): a High stake as a buyer. Belgium has not ratified CETA, and Canada's exports to it were flat in 2025 (+0.9%). Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Belgium?

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Your exposure

Belgium in our readings

Belgium is in 2 of our country readings; High in 1.

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · BELGIUM
Belgium imported 80.6% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
80.6%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 54.1%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Nuclear, 36.0%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 43.8% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.112024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: diversified

The EU's position in value chains (Belgium is a member)

No value-chain share for Belgium alone is on file; these are the EU's, which include it.

  • Design software and IP as part of the EU 25%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Chipmaking equipment as part of the EU 18%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Analog and other design as part of the EU 17%BCG and SIA · 2022

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Value chains: BCG and SIA (facts-only: Copyright BCG and SIA; single facts cited with attribution (read via reproduction by a government office)). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Belgium · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Low
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Low
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Belgium on the outlook map

Dates for Belgium on the risk calendar

Key questions (2)
The other side: 6 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Belgium

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Our reading · Strait of Hormuz

  • US tariffs and Canada High

    • F-0212 · The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 8%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

    • F-0213 · A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025 · 47%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief Q-027

    Our reading · US tariffs and Canada

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Belgium: its Hormuz volumes on file stop at 2024, and the scenario cases run on one year, 2025.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Belgium makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Belgian potash and iron-ore imports by origin. US tariffs and Canada
  • 31 Dec 2026 The Q-027 forecasts on the EU share of Canada's exports resolve. US tariffs and Canada
  • Ongoing Belgium's CETA ratification votes. US tariffs and Canada
  • Monthly QatarEnergy force majeure notices to European buyers. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Quarterly Zeebrugge arrivals by origin (Fluxys, IEEFA tracker): the Qatari and Russian shares. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Belgium?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Belgium, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Belgium on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Belgium, importer through the straits

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Belgium.

Chokepoints

Crude oil, import dependence
100%

Qatari LNG and Gulf plastics are its main Gulf links. 1

Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Refined fuels, 2024: Suez 27% · Bab el-Mandeb 24% · Hormuz 17% · Malacca 3.4% · Panama 0.3% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled
  • LPG, 2025: Panama 1.3% (the route model covers 64% of its named imports) modelled
  • LNG, 2024: Bab el-Mandeb 50% · Suez 50% · Hormuz 37% · Malacca 14% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz
  • Oil stocks in days

Dashed underline = low confidence.

importer through the straitsFlows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where Belgium’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

Show the list

    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Questions our briefs address

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Belgium.

    HighUS tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for BelgiumUS tariffsUS tariffs and Canada

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Belgium

    Canada supplies 66.1% of Belgium's potash and 42.6% of its iron ore (2025): a High stake as a buyer. Belgium has not ratified CETA, and Canada's exports to it were flat in 2025 (+0.9%).

    Theme band High

    66.1%

    Canada's share of Belgian potash imports, 2025

    42.6%

    Canada's share of Belgian iron-ore imports, 2025

    0.54%

    Share of Canada's exports excl. gold, 2025

    0.9%

    Growth of Canada's exports to Belgium, 2025

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Belgium is one of 9 member states yet to ratify CETA; until all have, CETA applies only provisionally.
    • Canada's imports from Belgium fell 7.5% in 2025, to C$4.2bn.
    • Potash supply is concentrated: one country, Canada, holds two-thirds of Belgian imports.

    Opportunities

    • If US duties reached potash, Canada would have more to place: the US took 46.2% of Canada's C$9.03bn of potash exports in 2025, Belgium 3.8%.
    • Diamonds and nickel lead Canada's sales to Belgium: 20.4% and 10.3% of the total in 2025.

    Uncertainties

    • Import shares are by value and move with fertiliser and ore prices.
    • Diamond flows may reflect trading rather than Belgian use.

    What to watch

    • MonthlyBelgian potash and iron-ore imports by origin.
    • 31 Dec 2026The Q-027 forecasts on the EU share of Canada's exports resolve.
    • OngoingBelgium's CETA ratification votes.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Supply from Canada (potash)Dependence66.1% of the country's imports of the good 2025Canada's share of the country's imports of potash fertiliser (HS 3104)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%
    Supply from Canada (iron ore)Dependence42.6% of the country's imports of the good 2025Canada's share of the country's imports of iron ore (HS 2601)MediumHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Canada's share of Belgian imports, 2025 (%)
    Canada's share of the country's imports of potash fertiliser (HS 3104): 66.1% of the country's imports of the good (2025)Potash fertiliser66.1Canada's share of the country's imports of iron ore (HS 2601): 42.6% of the country's imports of the good (2025)Iron ore42.6

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), imports by partner, as reported by the importing country.

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Our calculations

    • Country's share of Canada's goods exports to the EU-27: 9.05% of Canada's exports to the EU-27 (= Canada's 2025 exports to the country / Canada's 2025 exports to the EU-27)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →

    MediumGulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for BelgiumGulfGulf war / Hormuz

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Belgium

    Belgium's Gulf exposure is LNG: Qatar supplied 16.7% of 2025 LNG imports (1.7 of 10.2 Mt), and LNG made up 58% of 2025 gas imports. Medium band. Zeebrugge's hub role carries the larger stake.

    Theme band Medium

    16.7%

    Qatar share of LNG imports, 2025 (volume)

    10.2

    LNG imports, Mt, 2025

    EUR1.2bn

    Spent on Qatari LNG, EUR bn, 2025

    58%

    LNG share of gas imports, 2025

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Qatari cargoes stopped under force majeure, extended again on 28 Sep 2026. Before the war Zeebrugge took up to 3 Qatari cargoes a month, mostly on long-term contracts. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Belgium spent EUR 1.2bn on Qatari LNG in 2025, at the highest average price paid in the EU. Replacement cargoes are priced against a tight market: EU states paid more than EUR 30bn in extra fossil import costs by early May 2026 (estimate). Estimate from press or commentary
    • Before the war, US and Russian cargoes already made up about 49% and 38% of Zeebrugge arrivals, Qatar about 7% (press estimate). A larger Russian share ties Belgian supply more closely to EU decisions on Russian gas. Estimate from press or commentary

    Opportunities

    • Zeebrugge is a regional hub: 17.1 bcm of capacity after a 1.8 bcm expansion in Jan 2025, and imports up 85% in 2025, part of it sent on to neighbours.
    • Slots left empty by Qatar were offered for resale: Fluxys put five April 2026 slots on the secondary market. Estimate from press or commentary

    Uncertainties

    • Sources disagree on the Qatari share: Bruegel says a quarter, Euronews 8%, IEEFA 13% for Q1 2026. The 8% equals the EU-wide figure; this reading uses the GIIGNL/Kpler volume share, 16.7%. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Crude origin is hidden: 98.9% of Belgian crude imports were consigned from the Netherlands in 2025, so the Gulf share of Belgian refining cannot be read from trade data.
    • The Medium band rests on LNG's share of gas imports (58% in 2025, all gas being imported); part of the LNG is sent on to neighbours, so its share of Belgian use is lower.

    What to watch

    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could extend the Qatari outage into winter.
    • MonthlyQatarEnergy force majeure notices to European buyers.
    • QuarterlyZeebrugge arrivals by origin (Fluxys, IEEFA tracker): the Qatari and Russian shares.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    LNGEnergy16.7% 2025Share of LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE (volume)MediumHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Belgian LNG imports by origin, 2025 (Mt)
    LNG imports, net: 10.2 Mt (2025)LNG imports, net10.2LNG imports from Russia (Yamal): 3.9 Mt (2025)Russia3.9LNG imports from the United States: 3.8 Mt (2025)United States3.8LNG imports from Qatar: 1.7 Mt (2025)Qatar1.7

    GulfElsewhere

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: GIIGNL Annual Report 2026 (2025 trade; data GIIGNL and Kpler).

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Share of LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE (volume): 16.7% (= 1.7 / 10.2)
    • Qatari LNG to replace if Qatari supply stays out for 3 months: 0.43 Mt (= 1.7 × 3 / 12)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 19 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    Strait of Hormuz: what passes the strait for BelgiumHormuzChokepoints: Strait of Hormuz

    Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Belgium: what passes the strait

    Qatari LNG and Gulf plastics are its main Gulf links.

    Belgium is also counted in the European Union (as a bloc): its card on the Hormuz page.

    Route shares are modelled estimates; each figure carries its source. General research, not advice.

    Open on the Hormuz page The briefing

    Filter the questions Domain · Series · Topic
    Domain Series Topic

    Where Belgium acts · 1 question

    Decision Brief · Q-027 · 1 questionBeyond CETA: what the EU relationship adds, and when exporters should commit
    Geopolitical · Geoeconomic
    How many member states still have not ratified CETA, nine years on?

    “France and Italy are among 10 member states that have not ratified CETA, 9 years after it began to apply. For exporters, today's terms keep running, but any access beyond them waits on those votes.”

    The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.
    Primary Canada Affected Bulgaria +8
    CanadaBulgariaCyprusFranceGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyPolandSlovenia

    What it says about BelgiumActor: takes the action

    “the same 10 as not: Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland and Slovenia”

    From the brief
    Read the section: 06 · Ten member states still have not ratified CETA after nine years.

    Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, and so is each sentence under “What it says”; anything labelled “Context, not from the brief” comes from the public source named beside it. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.

    Regions in these questions Europe · North America

    ISO 3166-1 name: Belgium (BEL). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Published briefs

    Briefs with Belgium as their subject.

    No published brief has Belgium as its subject yet; the questions above name it in another role.

    Forecast register

    Forecasts on the register attached to the questions above.

    Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.

    No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.

    The forecast register

    Free downloads

    The summary sheet and the executive read are free.

    The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.

    General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Belgium”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/bel/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
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