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Slovenia

Slovenia buys refined fuel, not crude, and 25.0% of it came from the Gulf in 2025, almost all Saudi (1.21 Mt). Products recovered least after the Strait reopened. Medium band. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Slovenia?

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  • Region Europe · Central and Eastern Europe
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Your exposure

Slovenia in our readings

Slovenia is in 1 of our country readings.

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Slovenia on the outlook map

Dates for Slovenia on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Slovenia

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Our reading · Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Slovenia makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Slovenian fuel imports by origin (SURS and trade data). Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Diesel and jet cracks in the Mediterranean. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Slovenia?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Slovenia, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Slovenia on the map of brief questions

Questions our briefs address

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Slovenia.

MediumGulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for SloveniaGulfGulf war / Hormuz

Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Slovenia

Slovenia buys refined fuel, not crude, and 25.0% of it came from the Gulf in 2025, almost all Saudi (1.21 Mt). Products recovered least after the Strait reopened. Medium band.

Theme band Medium

25%

Gulf share of refined product imports, 2025 (value)

1.21

Gulf products, Mt, 2025

37.2%

Mediterranean refiners' share, 2025

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Saudi Arabia alone was 24.9% of product imports in 2025; product flows through the Strait recovered least after it reopened (T-003).
  • Product importers cannot switch crude grades; replacement diesel and jet are bought in the same tight market. Brent averaged US$114 in Sep 2026.
  • About 9.0% of imports are recorded as areas not specified, so the Gulf share could be higher.

Opportunities

  • Mediterranean refiners supplied 37.2% of Slovenian product imports in 2025, down from 51.1% in 2024, and gain share if Gulf cargoes stop: Italy, Greece, Egypt and Turkey.
  • Some Saudi product may load at Red Sea refineries outside the Strait, which would soften the loss.

Uncertainties

  • The Gulf loading port of Saudi products (Gulf coast or Yanbu) is not shown in trade data.
  • Whether Slovenian sourcing keeps moving towards the Gulf: its share rose from 22.4% in 2024 to 25.0% in 2025, while the Mediterranean share fell.

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could cut Gulf product loadings again.
  • MonthlySlovenian fuel imports by origin (SURS and trade data).
  • MonthlyDiesel and jet cracks in the Mediterranean.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined productsEnergy25% 2025Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Hormuz Gulf producers (value)MediumHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Slovenian product imports, 2025 (value share %)
Mediterranean refiners' share of product imports: 37.2% (2025)Mediterranean refiner…37.2Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 25% (2025)Refined product25.0

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): Slovenia imports, refined petroleum products (HS 2710) by partner, 2025.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Gulf refined products to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 0.3 Mt (= 1.21 × 3 / 12 = 0.3025)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

Filter the questions Domain · Series · Topic
Domain Series Topic

Where Slovenia acts · 1 question

Decision Brief · Q-027 · 1 questionBeyond CETA: what the EU relationship adds, and when exporters should commit
Geopolitical · Geoeconomic
How many member states still have not ratified CETA, nine years on?

“France and Italy are among 10 member states that have not ratified CETA, 9 years after it began to apply. For exporters, today's terms keep running, but any access beyond them waits on those votes.”

The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.
Primary Canada Affected Belgium +8
CanadaBelgiumBulgariaCyprusFranceGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyPoland

What it says about SloveniaActor: takes the action

“the same 10 as not: Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland and Slovenia”

From the brief
Read the section: 06 · Ten member states still have not ratified CETA after nine years.

Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, and so is each sentence under “What it says”; anything labelled “Context, not from the brief” comes from the public source named beside it. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.

Regions in these questions Europe · North America

ISO 3166-1 name: Slovenia (SVN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Published briefs

Briefs with Slovenia as their subject.

No published brief has Slovenia as its subject yet; the questions above name it in another role.

Forecast register

Forecasts on the register attached to the questions above.

Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.

No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.

The forecast register

Free downloads

The summary sheet and the executive read are free.

The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.

General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Slovenia”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/svn/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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