Will US or Israeli forces strike Iran between 22 August and 20 November 2026?
From S-001Sealed 21 Aug 2026Resolves by 20 Nov 2026Open
Our standing estimate
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026
61% · likely · moderate confidence
A single munition counts if delivered by US or Israeli forces onto Iranian land or islands, a seabed installation in Iran's waters, or a commissioned Iranian warship anywhere.
F-0074 · Open
It does not happen
39%
The situation when it was sealed (21 Aug 2026). On 21 August 2026 the Strait of Hormuz was shut to commercial transits, and the quiet in strikes on Iran was 23 days old.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row; a line joins a superseded estimate to the one that replaced it. Superseded estimates stay listed and are scored.
The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0073
21 Aug 2026
72%
Superseded, still scored
1
F-0074
21 Aug 2026
61%
Open
Reassessments
19 Oct 2026
US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.
21 Aug 2026
F-0073 at 72% was replaced by F-0074 at 61%, a new sealed row. Both stay listed and scored.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
What would move the view of a renewed strike?
If a US principal states that energy infrastructure is off the target list, or the measures of 19–20 August are formally presented as the substitute for military action, or a dated instrument replaces the lapsed understanding, our view falls Read it in the brief
Energy ruled out — Would move our view down; Could take it below even odds Read it in the brief
Why it matters, by category
Geopolitics and conflict
The brief reads the closure as the channel that reaches buyers of Gulf energy, and a strike as an input to it: a strike changes what is listed.
Does the United States or Israel strike Iran again between 22 August and 20 November 2026?
Likely, as registered on 21 August 2026: 61% that US or Israeli forces strike Iran by 20 November 2026, our estimate, scored when it resolves; on 21 August the strait was shut by permit. Read it in the brief
What counts as a renewed strike for the registered forecast?
A single munition suffices; no casualty, damage or scale threshold applies. Read it in the brief
By what paths could a renewed strike arrive?
The paths overlap, which is why the composed figure sits well below the sum of its parts; the overlap is what the superseded 72% mishandled. Read it in the brief
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0074, F-0073
“the armed forces of the United States and/or the State of Israel deliver one or more munitions onto Iranian sovereign land territory including its islands, or onto a fixed installation attached to the seabed within Iran's territorial sea, continental shelf or exclusive economic zone, or onto a commissioned warship or naval combatant of the Iranian state wherever located, delivered from beyond the target's immediate vicinity, at any time between 00:00 UTC on 2026-08-22 and 23:59 UTC on 2026-11-20 inclusive”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0074 sealed 21 Aug 2026SHA-256 32de7c7ce10803c0bc86e69a410442129b30d25c4dff71a352027c7bacaff498
F-0073 sealed 21 Aug 2026SHA-256 3c056c8bc6f64813cfe833e1b4f7cd8eda1d132653f446a90d451cfeaf47f335
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.