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Your exposure · Country · Sub-Saharan Africa

Sudan

No published question names Sudan yet; our country analysis is below.

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Sudan?

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  • Region Sub-Saharan Africa · East Africa and the Horn
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Sudan in our readings

Sudan is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Severe
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints High
  • Energy and resources High
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Sudan on the outlook map

Dates for Sudan on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Sudan

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Sudan makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly FAO and WFP prices for diesel, sorghum and wheat. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Oct-Dec 2026 The 2026 harvest, after 2025 cereal output fell 22% below 2024. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Sudan?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Sudan, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Sudan on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Sudan.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Sudan

Sudan, at war, feels the Gulf war through fuel and food prices: diesel nearly doubled between Mar and Aug 2026, and 19.5 million people were projected in acute food insecurity for Feb-May 2026.

Theme band Medium

31%est.

Middle East share of oil use (IEA proxy, 2024)

US$1.03bn

Gold sold to the UAE, US$ bn (2023)

19.5

People projected in IPC Phase 3 or worse, million (Feb-May 2026)

2.8

Cereal import requirement, Mt (2026)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Fuel. Diesel prices nearly doubled between Mar and Aug 2026. About 31% of oil use comes from the Middle East. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Food. The 2026 cereal import requirement is 2.8 Mt, after a poor 2025 harvest of 5.2 Mt. The wheat price rose from US$257.6 to US$347 a tonne.
  • Gold income. The UAE reported US$1.0315bn of gold imports from Sudan in 2023, about 1.7% of 2025 GDP.

Opportunities

  • Farm exports. Sudan is a nearby farm supplier for Gulf food importers, but its own war and a 2025 harvest 22% below 2024 limit what it can export.
  • Red Sea coast. Port Sudan lies on the Red Sea, where Saudi Arabia rerouted about 4 mb/d of crude to Yanbu during the closure (press estimate); no gain for Sudan has been measured. Estimate from press or commentary

Uncertainties

  • Sudan has not reported trade since 2023; partner shares are mirror data.
  • The Gulf share of remittances, which were US$1.499bn in 2022.
  • How much fuel reaches the country through Port Sudan during the war.

What to watch

  • MonthlyFAO and WFP prices for diesel, sorghum and wheat.
  • 20 Nov 2026The registered strike forecast resolves.
  • Oct-Dec 2026The 2026 harvest, after 2025 cereal output fell 22% below 2024.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined productsDependence31%est. 2024Middle East share of domestic oil consumptionMediumHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Gulf capitalCapital and finance0.83% GDP 2025 low confidenceGulf deposits as % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥10% of GDP or ≥25% of FX reserves · Medium 2–10% of GDP · Low <2% of GDP but ≥US$1bn

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Sudan: world wheat price before and during the Gulf war (US HRW, US$/t)
Wheat price (US HRW), World Bank: US$347/t (2026-09)2026-09347.0Wheat price (US HRW), World Bank, before the Gulf war: US$257.6/t (2026-02)2026-02257.6

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), monthly prices, October 2026 release.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Gulf deposits as % of GDP: 0.83% GDP (= 0.5 / 60.163)
  • Gold sold to the UAE as % of GDP: 1.7% of GDP (= 1.0315 / 60.163)
  • Scenario: extra cereal import cost in a year at the Sep 2026 wheat price: US$0.25bn per year (= 2.8 Mt × (347 - 257.6) US$/t)
  • Scenario: extra cereal import cost as % of GDP: 0.42% of GDP (= 0.25 / 60.163)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sudan: what passes the strait

Imported fuel through its Red Sea coast is its main link; its refineries run at 15-20% of capacity, and published facts are thin.

Route shares are modelled estimates; each figure carries its source. General research, not advice.

Open on the Hormuz page The briefing

ISO 3166-1 name: Sudan (SDN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Sudan”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/sdn/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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