Sign in Get in touch
Your exposure · Country · Sub-Saharan Africa

Eritrea

Eritrea relies on the Middle East for about 91% of its oil (a proxy: little trade data is published), and Houthi forces were reported on islands opposite its coast in Sep 2026. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Eritrea?

Using this page
  1. Read the questions our briefs address, and any country reading.
  2. Filter the questions by domain, series or topic.
  3. Open a brief for its free summary sheet and executive read.
  • Region Sub-Saharan Africa · East Africa and the Horn
  • Readings updated
Link to this page

Follow EritreaSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Your exposure

Eritrea in our readings

Eritrea is in 1 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Elevated
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Elevated
  • Energy and resources High
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Eritrea on the outlook map

Dates for Eritrea on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Eritrea

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Eritrea makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly Shipping incidents near the Hanish islands and Bab el-Mandeb. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Late 2026 FAO crop assessment after the poor rains. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Eritrea?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Eritrea, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Eritrea on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Eritrea.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Eritrea

Eritrea relies on the Middle East for about 91% of its oil (a proxy: little trade data is published), and Houthi forces were reported on islands opposite its coast in Sep 2026.est.

Theme band High

91%est.

Middle East share of oil use (IEA proxy, 2024)

64.3%

Rise in the crude price, Feb-Sep 2026

30%

Rainfall below average, 2026 season

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Fuel cost. The crude price was 64.3% higher in Sep 2026 than in February. Eritrea gets almost all its oil from the region. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Conflict next door. In Sep 2026 Houthi forces were reported to have taken the Zuqar and Hanish islands, about 160 km north of Bab el-Mandeb, opposite the Eritrean coast. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Harvest. Rain was 20-40% below average in Jun-Sep 2026, so more food may need to be imported at higher prices.

Opportunities

  • Red Sea position. Bab el-Mandeb, next to Eritrea's coast, carries about 12% of world trade, so the security of that coast matters more to Gulf exporters using the Red Sea. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Little Gulf money to withdraw. No Gulf state deposits at Eritrea's central bank were found in public sources, so a Gulf fiscal squeeze has little direct finance to pull back. Estimate from press or commentary

Uncertainties

  • No trade data by partner. The 91% figure is an IEA-based proxy, not customs data. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Reserves were last published for 2019 (US$0.192bn).

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026The registered strike forecast resolves.
  • MonthlyShipping incidents near the Hanish islands and Bab el-Mandeb.
  • Late 2026FAO crop assessment after the poor rains.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined productsDependence91%est. 2024Middle East share of domestic oil consumptionHighHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Eritrea: Brent crude price before and during the war (World Bank monthly average), US$/bbl
Brent crude price, World Bank monthly average: US$116.8/bbl (2026-09)Brent crude price,…116.8

Gulf

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), monthly prices, October 2026 release.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Rise in the crude benchmark since before the war: 64.3% (= (116.8 - 71.1) / 71.1)
  • Scenario: fuel import bill if prices stay at the Sep 2026 level, relative to before the war: 1.64 times the pre-war bill (= 1 + 0.643)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 25 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

ISO 3166-1 name: Eritrea (ERI). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Eritrea”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/eri/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
Ask about Eritrea

A question this page does not answer?

Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.

Is your company exposed in Eritrea? An exposure assessment of your own company, free. Request a free pilot

Suggest a question The method