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Your exposure · Country · Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopia

Ethiopia gets almost all its fuel from the Gulf: 97.4% of product imports in 2023. The bill equals about 40% of its reserves on a press figure, and diesel supply was reported halved in 2026. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Ethiopia?

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  • Region Sub-Saharan Africa · East Africa and the Horn
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Ethiopia in our readings

Ethiopia is in 1 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Elevated
  • Supply chains and chokepoints High
  • Energy and resources High
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Ethiopia on the outlook map

Dates for Ethiopia on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Ethiopia

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Ethiopia makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly Fuel deliveries through Djibouti and pump prices. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Quarterly National Bank of Ethiopia reserves against the fuel bill. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Ethiopia?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Ethiopia, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Ethiopia on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Ethiopia.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Ethiopia

Ethiopia gets almost all its fuel from the Gulf: 97.4% of product imports in 2023. The bill equals about 40% of its reserves on a press figure, and diesel supply was reported halved in 2026.

Theme band High

97.4%

Gulf share of refined product imports (2023)

40%

Gulf fuel imports (2023), % of FX reserves (FY2025/26, press figure)

17.1%

Exports to GCC6 and Iran, % of total (2023)

95%est.

Share of trade through Djibouti

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Fuel. Gulf producers, mainly Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, supplied 3.94 Mt of products in 2023. After the war began, daily diesel supply was reported to have fallen from 9.2 to 4.5 million litres. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Reserves. Gulf fuel imports of US$2.359bn (2023) compare with gross reserves of about US$5.9bn at the close of FY2025/26, as reported by the press. Estimate from press or commentary
  • One corridor. About 95% of trade passes through Djibouti, near Bab el-Mandeb, where Somali piracy hit a 10-year high in 2026. Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • Food exports to the Gulf. 81.8% of animal product exports and 23.5% of coffee exports went to the GCC in 2023, a market that imports most of its food.
  • Fertiliser does not depend on the Gulf directly: Morocco supplied 96.6% of fertiliser blends in 2023.

Uncertainties

  • Whether the 2018 UAE deposit is still held. The UAE swap line is US$0.817bn. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The Gulf share of remittances, which were US$7.14bn in 2024.
  • The diesel figures for 2026 come from a weak source. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • MonthlyFuel deliveries through Djibouti and pump prices.
  • 20 Nov 2026The registered strike forecast resolves.
  • QuarterlyNational Bank of Ethiopia reserves against the fuel bill.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined productsDependence97.4% 2023Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Gulf producersHighHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Exports to the GulfTrade17.1% exports 2023Share of goods exports to GCC6+IranMediumHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%
Gulf capitalCapital and finance1.44% GDP 2025 low confidenceUAE deposit+swap as % of GDPLowHigh ≥10% of GDP or ≥25% of FX reserves · Medium 2–10% of GDP · Low <2% of GDP but ≥US$1bn

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Ethiopia: product imports by supplier (2023)
Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Gulf producers: 97.4% (2023)Refined product97.4

Gulf

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): ETH imports HS 2710 by partner 2023.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Gulf product imports as % of FX reserves: 40% of reserves (= 2.359 / 5.9)
  • Share of goods exports to GCC6+Iran: 17.1% exports (= WITS tradestats API XPRT-TRD-VL (reporter data): world 2.86bn, GCC6 0.49bn, Iran 0.0bn; (0.49+0.0)/2.86)
  • UAE deposit+swap as % of GDP: 1.44% GDP (= (1.0 + 0.817) / 126.36)
  • Scenario: extra fuel import bill for one quarter if a renewed strike adds US$10-20/bbl: US$0.11bn per quarter (= 3.936 × 7.45 / 4 × 15)
  • Scenario: extra annual fuel bill as % of FX reserves: 7.5% of reserves (= 0.11 × 4 / 5.9)
  • Scenario: diesel shortfall if supply halves again for one quarter: 431 million litres per quarter (= (9.2 - 4.5) m l/day × 91.7 days)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 25 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

Strature analysis, not from the brief

Ethiopia: what passes the strait

Kuwait supplies most of its diesel and all of its jet fuel by contract, and it imports over 90% of its nitrogen fertiliser.

Kuwait's share of its jet fuel, by contract (Addis Fortune, Apr 2026): 100%

Route shares are modelled estimates; each figure carries its source. General research, not advice.

Open on the Hormuz page The briefing

ISO 3166-1 name: Ethiopia (ETH). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Ethiopia”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/eth/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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