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Your exposure · Country · Sub-Saharan Africa

Madagascar

Madagascar buys 95.8% of its fuel products from the Gulf, but 78.5% from Oman, outside the Strait. The exposure is price: oil-fired plants made 40.2% of its power in 2024. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Madagascar?

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  • Region Sub-Saharan Africa · East Africa and the Horn
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Madagascar in our readings

Madagascar is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Low
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Madagascar on the outlook map

Dates for Madagascar on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Madagascar

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Madagascar makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Pump prices and supply from the distributors Jovena, Galana and Vivo Energy. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Nov 2026-Mar 2027 Rice planting and the cyclone season. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Each BFM meeting Central bank (BFM) policy rate, 12.5% since Aug 2026. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Madagascar?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Madagascar, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Madagascar on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Madagascar.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Madagascar

Madagascar buys 95.8% of its fuel products from the Gulf, but 78.5% from Oman, outside the Strait. The exposure is price: oil-fired plants made 40.2% of its power in 2024.

Theme band Low

78.5%

of product imports from Oman, outside the Strait (2025)

17.3%

from Hormuz Gulf producers (2025)

40.2%

of electricity made from oil (2024)

8.6%

inflation in Jun 2026

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Power: oil made 40.2% of electricity in 2024, and power and water cuts at JIRAMA were among the grievances in the Sep 2025 protests that preceded the Oct 2025 change of government. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Prices: inflation rose from 6.8% in March to 8.6% in Jun 2026; the central bank raised its rate to 12.5% in August.
  • Concentration: Oman supplied 78.5% of fuel products in 2025.
  • Fertiliser: Hormuz producers supplied 2.8% of urea in 2025, down from 26.6% in 2024, as China supplied 70.0%; the channel is now below the 10% line.

Opportunities

  • Oman loads outside the Strait, which shields most fuel volume from a closure.
  • Hydro and solar could cut the fuel bill: oil still made 40.2% of power in 2024, against 39.1% in 2023 on revised data.
  • Rice is not a Hormuz channel: Pakistan (52.1%), India (31.5%) and Myanmar (13.4%) supplied 2025 imports by value.

Uncertainties

  • Reserves for 2025-2026 were not found; the latest is US$2.78bn at end-2024.
  • Whether war-risk premia raised the cost of Omani cargoes during the war.
  • The status of the IMF programme after the Oct 2025 change of government. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves.
  • MonthlyPump prices and supply from the distributors Jovena, Galana and Vivo Energy.
  • Nov 2026-Mar 2027Rice planting and the cyclone season.
  • Each BFM meetingCentral bank (BFM) policy rate, 12.5% since Aug 2026.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Fertiliser (urea)Food and farming2.8% 2025Share of urea imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman)Below lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Refined productsDependence17.3% 2025Share of refined product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman)LowHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Exports to the GulfTradeUS$31.2m 2025Goods exports to GCC6 + IranBelow lineHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Refined product imports by supplier, 2025 (% of value)
Share of refined product imports from Oman: 78.5% (2025)Oman78.5Share of refined product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman): 17.3% (2025)Hormuz Gulf producers17.3

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): Madagascar imports HS 2710 by partner, 2025.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Scenario: combined one-quarter FX hit (fuel + urea) as a share of reserves: 1.13% of reserves (= (31.4 + 0.02) US$m / US$2,785m = 1.13%; low (20.9 + 0)/2,785 = 0.75%; high (41.9 + 0.03)/2,785 = 1.51%. As % of 2025 GDP (US$19.62bn): 0.16% (0.11-0.21))
  • Scenario: extra product import bill for one quarter, Brent +US$15/bbl: US$31.4m (= 1.117 Mt (2025 products) × 7.5 bbl/t = 8.38m bbl a year; /4 × US$15; range US$10-20)
  • Scenario: Hormuz-only product volume to re-source in 3 months: 0.06 Mt (= 224.5 kt (2025 Hormuz-only products by weight: 20.1% of 1,117 kt) × 3/12 = 56 kt)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 19 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

ISO 3166-1 name: Madagascar (MDG). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Madagascar”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/mdg/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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