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Your exposure · Country · Middle East and North Africa

Lebanon

Lebanon sells 28.6% of its goods exports to the GCC and Iran, most of it to the UAE. A Gulf slowdown would add to a 2026 contraction the World Bank puts at 6.4%. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Lebanon?

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  • Region Middle East and North Africa · Turkey and the Levant
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Lebanon in our readings

Lebanon is in 1 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Severe
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Elevated
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Lebanon on the outlook map

Dates for Lebanon on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Lebanon

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Lebanon makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Twice a year World Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor and damage assessment. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Fuel import prices and exports to the UAE. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Lebanon?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Lebanon, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Lebanon on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Lebanon.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Lebanon

Lebanon sells 28.6% of its goods exports to the GCC and Iran, most of it to the UAE. A Gulf slowdown would add to a 2026 contraction the World Bank puts at 6.4%.

Theme band High

28.6%

Exports to GCC6 and Iran, % of total (2024)

US$1.23bn

Exports to GCC6 and Iran, US$ bn (2024)

US$6.7bn

Remittances, US$ bn (2023; Gulf share unknown)

16.4%

Gulf share of product imports (2024)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Gulf market. The UAE alone took 24.1% of exports in 2024. Saudi Arabia buys almost nothing since a 2021 ban.
  • Fuel prices. Lebanon imports 3.021 Mt of products a year. A US$15 rise in oil would add about US$0.34bn a year, 1.3% of GDP (our calculation, not a forecast).
  • War at home. The World Bank expects the economy to shrink 6.4% in 2026. The 2023 and 2024 fighting cost US$14bn.

Opportunities

  • Diverse fuel suppliers. Greece alone supplied US$1,467.0m of products in 2024, more than the Gulf; Egypt and Turkey were also large suppliers, and the Gulf share was 16.4%.
  • Reconstruction finance. Needs from the 2023 and 2024 fighting alone were US$11bn; Gulf donors are possible funders.

Uncertainties

  • The Gulf share of remittances, which were 33.35% of GDP in 2023. No figure by country was found.
  • How much of the UAE trade is gold re-exported through Dubai. Lebanon's gold exports were US$278.1m in 2024.
  • The cost of the 2026 fighting, not yet assessed.

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026The registered strike forecast resolves.
  • Twice a yearWorld Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor and damage assessment.
  • MonthlyFuel import prices and exports to the UAE.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Exports to the GulfTrade28.6% of exports 2024Share of goods exports to GCC6 and IranHighHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%
Refined productsDependence16.4% 2024Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Gulf producersLowHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Lebanon: exports by destination, US$ bn (2024)
Goods exports to GCC6 and Iran: US$1.23bn (2024)GCC6 and Iran1.23Goods exports, total: US$4.29bn (2024)Total4.29

GulfTotals

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): LBN exports, all goods, by partner 2024; UN Comtrade (public API): LBN exports, all goods 2024.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Share of goods exports to GCC6 and Iran: 28.6% of exports (= 1.228 / 4.290)
  • UAE share of goods exports: 24.1% of exports (= 1.0347 / 4.2896)
  • Scenario: extra product import bill in a year if a renewed strike adds US$10-20/bbl: US$0.34bn per year (= 3.021 × 7.45 × 15)
  • Scenario: extra annual product bill as % of GDP: 1.3% of GDP (= 0.34 / 25.972)
  • Scenario: exports lost if Gulf demand falls 10% for a year: US$0.12bn per year (= 0.10 × 1.228)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 23 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

Strature analysis, not from the brief

Lebanon: what passes the strait

It stopped Iraqi fuel oil for its power plants in late 2025 and imports all refined fuel; traders reported less than a week of essential food stocks in April 2026.

Seaborne fuel imports, January-September 2025 (Attaqa; low confidence): 127 kb/d

Change in seaborne fuel imports, Q1 2026 against Q1 2025 (Attaqa; low confidence): down 8.5%

Route shares are modelled estimates; each figure carries its source. General research, not advice.

Open on the Hormuz page The briefing

ISO 3166-1 name: Lebanon (LBN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Lebanon”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/lbn/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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